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A JANELA DE OPORTUNIDADE DO PKK
John Robb analisa a oportunidade estratégica do PKK curdo, na escalada com a Turquia. O pânico que o PKK pode lançar nos mercados mundiais ao atirar o preço do barril de petróleo para mais de 100 euros. Como especialista, John Robb esmiúça as fragilidades que o PKK pode explorar...
"The PKK's Opportunity to Win Strategically
Current tightness in the oil markets (peak oil?) has presented the PKK, the Kurdish guerrilla group fighting the Turkish government, with an amazing opportunity. It can become responsible for sending oil prices over $100 a barrel and sowing panic in global markets.
- An immediate price spike that would likely exceed $100 a barrel, an important psychological barrier. This is pricing power in the oil market on par with Saudi Arabia (see the 2004 brief: " A Shadow OPEC" for more).
- A major loss of income for Turkey from pipeline fees, as contractual caveats kick in. Also, substantial disruptions and price hikes for not only Turkish customers, but European customers too. This could put the final nail in coffin for Turkey's EU bid.
- Global recognition of their situation/cause and immediate international pressure on Turkey to resolve the crisis. At a minimum, if Turkey opts for violence, the disruption of the BTC would be a strategic timer on the conflict -- as in the longer it persists, the greater the international pressure to end it.
If peak oil is actually in play already, as this report from the German government concludes , the price spike we see will not be met with increased production from the big producers. It will be sustained as long as the disruption persists. As a result, it could become the first global example that oil pricing power has shifted from producers to disruptors and that a shadow OPEC is not only possible, but inevitable.
Tags: islão, mudança do modelo energético, terrorismo
