num Blog-Notas, para tornar o obscuro bastante mais...
CLARO
THE VIRTUAL CALIPHATE
A good source for exploring this is Brian Fishman's (from West Point) report on Furqan Media's: Informing the People About the Birth of the Islamic State of Iraq. In this document, a scholar named Uthman Bin Abd al‐Rahman al‐Tamimi combines modern theories of globalization with Jihadi theory to argue that:
...the ISI, unlike a modern Western state, is not defined by absolute geographic boundaries, a monopoly on the use of violence, or bureaucratically‐administered services. According to Tamimi, measuring the ISI against that metric misunderstands both Islam and the globalization revolution. The ISI is structured around pseudo‐ feudal allegiances from subject to Emir, shared ideological goals, and the execution of judicial proceedings.While territory is claimed, it cannot always be held. As a result, the territory it does hold is very similar to a description of a temporary autonomous zone ( TAZ) :
For him, a state's perimeter extends only so far as men stand with guns to defend it. Tamimi's vision of statehood suggests he conceives of the ISI as a governmental amoeba, constantly shifting its zone of control across Iraq's western expanses as ISI forces redeploy. It never controls all of the territory it has claimed, but demands that all residents of that territory swear allegiance to the ISI's Emir.The political goods this organization delivers do not include the material. It is assumed that is taken care of by the global marketplace and by the people themselves. What it desires to provide is enforcement of a code of conduct (the PCC has its own rules for this, the ISI's is Sharia):
Tamimi lists several discrete responsibilities of the ISI, most of which involve establishing judicial processes and resolving disputes among tribal groups; another is collecting Zakat (alms). The only material services the ISI owes to its citizens is to free prisoners and support the families of those considered martyrs.In short, it could be argued that the Caliphate is already here, but in a sketchy virtual form.
A great example of new history being made is found in Brazil (a situation I have written a lot about here).
William Langewiesche, writing for Vanity Fair this month, has an excellent article on the PCC network/gang called, "The City of Fear" (no link yet from outside the subscription wall). In the meantime, here's a great audio interview with him on NPR's Talk of the Nation. He articulates many of the themes found here.Another great article to read is by Monte Reel, "In Rio's Slums, Militias Fuel Violence They Seek to Quell " Washington Post, March 28, 2007. He examines the rise of the militias in response to the "Traffic" (aka, drug gangs) and finds them very similar in their approach (although they use different financing methods).
A NEW HISTORY
Here's some philosophy to think about. In 1989, a great year for prophetic essays, Frank Fukuyama wrote " The End of History?" (it's well worth the read if you can't wade through his book on the same subject). In this essay, he made a convincing case that we are in a post-historical epoch that is devoid of ideological struggle. Liberal capitalist democracy has won and it is only a matter of time before we all live under its roof. That claim has proven generally true since that writing: all but a few rogue states (devoid of any compelling ideological alternative) remain to challenge the liberal democratic West. Further, capitalism has swept the world and we now live within a vibrant global marketplace that has the potential to meet our every material need. However, something quite unexpected has happened.
The Fragmentation
History began again, but in a new and even messier form. The global communications and economic system we built became an open platform that superseded (but did not replace) the authority of the state. As a result of this new connectivity, increasingly outside of the control of the (or any) state, a growing number of groups have taken advantage of this new platform to challenge the state's legitimacy to exercise authority. The interesting part is that these new organizations:- don't represent any cohesive ideology or material solution, but rather a plethora of different solutions that appeal (by providing meaning and/or security and/or economic advancement) to specific target groups,
- are typically networks rather than hierarchies (they are not replacements for the state),
- aren't tied to territory (and hence aren't required to provide services to anyone other than their members),
- often find extremely profitable ways to finance their own growth, and
- have developed a new method of warfare to protect themselves and extend their power (open source warfare).
The Marketplace of Ideas
This chaotic state of affairs is nearly invisible to the grand strategist that can only see things in terms of state conflict and sweeping historical movements. However, for the systems thinker that can synthesis the details and is comfortable with uncertainty, the problems that are caused by an out-of-control global system moving at break neck speed could only be solved by bottoms up spiral development. The reason is that the complexity of the current problems are such that no single solution or set of solutions is either sufficient or knowable. It is only through the trial and error of many minds in competition that the specific contextual solutions can be found (and that competition is going to be hyper-local and global at the same time). Of course, as any reader of this site will know, many of these new solutions will be extremely harmful and as a result, our long term security is based on our ability to foster mutually beneficial templates for success.Tags: perceptions management, homeland security, mudança do modelo global, terrorismo
