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Competitive Intelligence & Perceptions Management
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CLARO
Friday, 27 January 2006

A IMPARÁVEL MUDANÇA

DO MODELO ENERGÉTICO

Como temos vindo a assinalar, aqui,  por exemplo, o 'technology push' está em marcha. cada vez mais acelerada, na área da energia. E é já uma realidade imparável. Por agora, "in the absence of a viable long term alternative (e.g. hydrogen), it appears that a mix of solutions, including energy efficiency, alternative fuels and nuclear power will be called into play." E, sendo já imparável (e sendo imprescindível que um pequeno estado como Portugal reflicta rapidamente e de modo inteligente sobre o petróleo como energia do passado e de um modelo energético e económico ultrapassado), "the question now is how to roll out these technologies to developing nations" :

" Technologies to fight climate change

With its CO2 Emissions Trading Scheme in place, Europe has resolutely opted for a 'market pull' approach to bring clean technologies onto the market in the short run. However, politicians realise new breakthrough technologies are also needed if deeper emission cuts are to be achieved in the long run (2020-2050 and beyond). This 'technology push' approach is currently championed by the US, which has put in place large-scale R&D programmes with impressive budgets. However, in the absence of a viable long term alternative (e.g. hydrogen), it appears that a mix of solutions, including energy efficiency, alternative fuels and nuclear power will be called into play. The question now is how to roll out these technologies to developing nations. "

continua Aqui

Entretanto, John Robb chamava ontem (e de novo) a atenção para os estratégicos problemas de segurança provocados por uma estratégia de "disruption", para a qual "the conventional armies of nation-states aren't the target, a nation-state's economic and societal infrastructure is" e através da qual movimentos terroristas "can decisively win wars against nation-states" :

"   THE EXAMPLE OF GEORGIA

William Gibson: "The future is here. It's just not widely distributed yet."

Nothing brings this quote more to life than the current situation in the nation of Georgia. It provides us with a glimpse of the future from thousands of miles of safety. Here's what happened. On Sunday, guerrillas knocked out two Gazprom natural gas pipelines and a critical electricity tower. The combination has deprived the country of heat and light for five days. In all, it's a great example of how:
  • Even entire nations are vulnerable to systems disruption.
  • Systems attacks can provide amazing leverage. An afternoon's work knocked out a country for more than five days.
  • It can be repeated again and again. The attack was simple, the vulnerability is vast, and the attackers weren't caught (nor are they likely to be).

The Disruption of Russia

Vladimir Putin: "The fuel and energy sector, overall, is the goose that lays the golden egg. Killing the goose would be insane, stupid and unacceptable."

To really understand the deeper implications of this attack, it's necessary to revisit ... "         

continua Aqui

Ou seja,  Hoje, vivemos na “Guerra Irrestrita”,  como aqui se escrevia a 05 de Outubro de 2004...

José Mateus Cavaco Silva at January 27, 2006 17:25 | link | comments
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