Welcome Home: o apoio

da IAVA aos veteranos...

IAVA - Iraq and Afeghanistan Veterans of America

O GRANDE BUSINESS DAS ONG

Já há mais de 20 anos que ficou claro o interesse da máfia italiana por ONGs... Para actuar não só na Europa mas também em África, Ásia e América Latina. E até para usar, em projectos próprios, financiamentos oficiais. E também para aparecer no terreno com instrumentos respeitáveis. E, eventualmente, por muitas outras razões que eles lá saberiam... Para muita gente ficou claro, então, que as ONG tinham perdido a inocência!

Outros casos menos radicais foram, entretanto, aparecendo e que pouco abonavam a “marca” ONG. Nada disto, porém, impediu que, nas últimas décadas, este segmento de actividade económica tivesse um enorme desenvolvimento e se afirmasse como um grande  e pesado “business” global. É a análise desse business, feita pela Infoguerre, que aqui apresentamos:

·         Le business de l'aide humanitaire

Depuis quelques années, l'humanitaire fait l'objet d'une course effrénée, où la concurrence peut être vive. Qui contrôle ces fonds philanthropiques qui, à eux seuls, pèsent 600 milliards de dollars ?
En savoir plus... na Infoguerre.

FILME DO TERRORISMO

ISLAMISTA EM BOMBAIM

Bombay: un Canadien ignore des coups frappés à sa porte, et a la vie sauve Un homme d'affaires canadien, qui a choisi de ne pas répondre quand on a frappé à la porte de sa chambre d'hôtel à Bombay (Inde), a expliqué vendredi comment cette décision fut la première d'une série qui lui ont probablement sauvé la vie.     la suite Les attentats de Bombay en direct sur blogs et sites de messagerie "Blogueurs" et autres "journalistes citoyens" ont utilisé à plein les possibilités des nouvelles technologies pour rendre compte des attentats de Bombay, tissant une chronique foisonnante --et parfois fausse-- du carnage dans la capitale économique de l'Inde.     la suite Inde: la bataille continue à Bombay contre les extrémistes islamistes ( contient une vidéo ) Les forces indiennes ont continué vendredi à traquer les islamistes armés retranchés à Bombay, deux jours après les spectaculaires attaques, accompagnées de prises d'otages, qui ont fait plus de 130 morts dont au moins 17 étrangers dans la capitale économique de l'Inde.     la suite Accusé, le Pakistan dépêche son chef des renseignements Le Pakistan, accusé de plus en plus ouvertement par l'Inde d'être lié d'une manière ou d'une autre aux attaques de Bombay, a décidé vendredi de faire un geste fort et inédit pour se dédouaner: dépêcher son chef du renseignement pour aider à l'enquête.     la suite 60 Espagnols présents à Bombay de retour à Madrid Soixante Espagnols présents à Bombay au début des attaques terroristes, qui ont fait plus de 130 morts depuis mercredi, sont arrivés vendredi à Madrid à bord d'un avion militaire espagnol.     la suite Accusé par l'Inde, le Pakistan dépêche son chef des renseignements Le Pakistan, accusé de plus en plus ouvertement par l'Inde d'être lié d'une manière ou d'une autre aux attaques de Bombay, a décidé vendredi de faire un geste fort et inédit pour se dédouaner: dépêcher son chef du renseignement pour aider à l'enquête.     la suite De retour de Bombay une Française raconte: "ils ont tiré sur tout ce qui bouge" Encore sous le choc, les premiers Français de retour de Bombay vendredi matin à l'aéroport de Roissy ont raconté à l'AFP les "fusillades", "explosions", "scènes de guerre et de panique" dans la capitale économique indienne frappée mercredi par des attentats.     la suite Les événements depuis le début des attaques à Bombay ( contient une vidéo ) Voici le film des événements survenus à Bombay depuis mercredi soir.     la suite Une attaque audacieuse à Bombay suivie de tueries Bien entraînés, déterminés et armés jusqu'aux dents, les extrémistes islamistes auteurs des sanglantes attaques de Bombay ont pu entrer dans la ville sans avoir été repérés, avant de déclencher le carnage.     la suite La presse indienne fustige le gouvernement après les attaques de Bombay Tous les journaux indiens consacraient vendredi leur une au drame de Bombay fustigeant le gouvernement et ses services de renseignement pour n'avoir pas su prévenir ces attaques menées par des extrémistes islamistes qui ont fait 130 morts selon un nouveau bilan.     la suite Un otage anglo-chypriote témoigne sur la BBC avant d'être tué à Bombay Dans un dernier témoignage à la BBC avant d'être tué, un homme d'affaires de 73 ans, ayant la double nationalité britannique et chypriote, a raconté jeudi ses dernières heures d'otage aux mains d'islamistes dans le luxueux hôtel Taj Mahal de Bombay.     la suite Attaques de Bombay: 39 personnes libérées, le Pakistan accusé ( contient une vidéo ) Les forces de sécurité ont mené jeudi une vaste opération contre les islamistes détenant des otages à Bombay, au lendemain des attaques qui ont fait au moins 125 morts dans la capitale économique de l'Inde.     la suite Les attaques de Bombay portent la marque d'Al-Qaïda, selon des experts Par leur audace, leur cible et leur caractère anti-occidental, les attaques qui ont ensanglanté mercredi le coeur de la capitale économique Bombay, marquent un tournant dans le terrorisme en Inde, selon les experts dont certains évoquent la marque d'Al-Qaïda.     la suite Attentats en Inde: au moins 4 étrangers tués, des dizaines encore retenus Au moins quatre ressortissants étrangers, et jusqu'à une dizaine selon certaines sources, ont été tués dans les attaques perpétrées à Bombay, et plusieurs dizaines d'autres ont encore été retenus jeudi dans des hôtels, selon des sources officielles et les médias.     la suite Bombay: à la recherche désespérée de nouvelles des proches Des familles désespérées cherchaient jeudi des nouvelles de leurs proches dans les hôpitaux et les morgues de Bombay au lendemain des attaques terroristes qui ont fait au moins 125 morts dans la capitale économique de l'Inde.     la suite Le Pakistan dément fermement être impliqué dans les attaques de Bombay Le ministre pakistanais de la Défense a "fermement affirmé" jeudi à l'AFP que le Pakistan n'était impliqué en aucune manière dans les attaques de Bombay, après qu'un responsable de l'armée indienne eut assuré que les assaillants venaient de ce pays.     la suite Bombay: des Français bloqués dans des hôtels dont un équipage d'Air France Quinze membres d'un équipage de la compagnie aérienne Air France sont bloqués dans l'hôtel Oberoi-Trident de Bombay, a-t-on appris jeudi de sources proches du dossier.     la suite "Appel d'urgence" du pape à la fin des "actes terroristes" Le pape Benoît XVI a lancé jeudi "un appel urgent" pour "la fin de tous les actes terroristes", en réaction aux attaques "brutales" commises à Bombay qui ont fait une centaine de morts, dans un télégramme adressé à l'archevêque de Bombay, le cardinal Oswald Gracias.     la suite Les principaux attentats en Inde depuis cinq ans Voici les principaux attentats perpétrés en Inde depuis 2003:     la suite L'hôtel Taj Mahal de Bombay, symbole de la fierté de l'Inde Le palace Taj Mahal Hôtel de Bombay, victime d'un gigantesque incendie mercredi suite à l'attaque de groupes d'hommes lourdement armés qui ont pris des clients en otages, est un symbole de la fierté indienne, durant la période coloniale britannique.     la suite

PRINCESSE TAM TAM

OS ATAQUES JIHADISTAS NA INDIA

no Counterterrorism Blog

Twitter comes of age reporting on Mumbai attacks

By Roderick Jones

The micro-blogging service Twitter has been providing updates to the attacks in Mumbai.

Link to Twitter feed.

Some of the commentary and links are off-base but it is a fascinating view into how the 'crowd' can monitor and report on real-time events. For example, there is a link posted to a 'google doc' spreadsheet listing known casualties. Link here.

Terrorist attacks may remain disturbingly similar but the way they are reported and examined changes in step with the rapid pace of virtualization.

Mumbai Terror attacks: Urban Jihad comes to India

By Walid Phares

As we write this short early assessment of the Terror attacks in Mumbai, events are still unforlding in the financial capital of the sub Indian region. Counter Terrorism units are battling armed elements inside several buildings including the Taj Hotel where hostages have been seized, including foreigners. My first round of monitoring included a discussion with our colleague Animesh Roul who has also posted a report on CTB. I must credit a number of facts and assumptions to him including the projection that the perpetrators -although calling themselves Deccan Mujahideen- are in fact members or trained by Lashkar e Toiba/SIMI (who according to Animesh Roul now call themselves Indian Mujahideen). Here is the condensed report I discussed on Fox News, the BBC, Russia Today TV and other international outlets.

Type of Operation

According to sources in Mumbai, armed groups and individuals have attacked at least ten (if not more) targets inside the city including the Taj Hotel, Oberoi Hotel, a railway Station, the Leopold Café and other locations. More shooting incidents have been also reported at the Trident hotel, a hospital and a highway leading to the airport and Assembly Hall. The terrorists fired indiscriminately against civilians, security elements, lobbed grenades, and killed Counter Terrorism officials. At this writing sources are reporting more than 102 deaths, amd hundreds wounded, in addition to hostage taking. Indian security sources confirmed the use of AK-47s, small arms, grenade, etc. This type of operation, involving a number of small groups and individuals "deployed" across several avenues, In my book Future Jihad I coined these types of forthcoming strikes as "urban Jihad" (Chapter 13). Instead of bombers and suicide bombers, the command sends "Jihadi infantry." The tactical goal of these actions is to engage in different types of missions: random kilings, chaos, killing of security officers and hostage taking.

Design of the operations

In our estimate, this attack is a “complex” type, where small operations are aimed at creating chaos and triggering security deployment in many areas, while more precise operations could target higher targets such as hostage taking or similar situation. We will probably know more when the dust will settle.

Perpetrators

In view of the historical context, precedents and latest analysis, the most likely groups that may be behind these attacks are the Lashkar e Toiba/SIMI (they now call themselves Indian Mujahideen). These groups are Jihadists, have links to the other organizations in Kashmir but also inside Pakistan with pro-Taliban elements and eventually Al Qaeda. The ideological identification is most likely Jihadist although the group almost surely will issue a more than one release to claim the attack and put it in context.

According to Indian sources this is an operation of a very new type in India. The "emirs" have sent these armed elements in their 20s to strike at Indian psyche. One goal is to sink the Pakistani-Indian rapprochement. In Islamabad, the new Government is engaged in operations against the big Jihadi boys ojn the north western frontier. It is quite possible that the Mumbai attacks aim at triggering tensions between the two old foes so that pressure would be released against the radicals in Pakistan. In any event, this is a large Jihadi operation against one of the emerging economies and the largest democraciy n Asia. The goal is to target India as a power engaged in the War on Terror but also to further destabilize the region, including Pakistan and its neighbor Afghanistan.”

************

Dr Walid Phares is the Director of the Future Terrorism Project at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.

India's Financial Hub Mumbai under Multiple Terror Attacks!

By Animesh Roul

Co-Editor's Note: See the "Newslinks" box for links to updated news on the attacks.
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Suspected Islamic terrorists have attacked at least eight places in Mumbai, the financial hub of India on November 26 evening. They fired indiscriminately, and lobbed grenades around while making their way to Hotels and Railway Stations and Airport. At least 60 people, many foreigners have reportedly died and nearly 150 injured in these terror attacks. Times of India report quoting hospital sources, indicated that at least 80 people were dead and 250 injured in the terror attacks. There are unconfirmed reports of a Hostage situation also in Taj Mahal and Oberoi Hotels (with most foreign guests). The first incident of firing was reported at Leopold Cafe, a well-known watering hole for tourists and foreigners in Colaba. The second incident was near Taj Mahal hotel, the third was near Oberoi hotel in Nariman Point and the fourth one was at Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus railway station. Also a major blast was also reported in Vile Parle in suburban Mumbai. As per the latest reports around 15 people, half of them foreigners are taken hostage on the roof of the Taj Mahal Hotel.

The needle of the suspicion is on the Lashkar- e- Toiba and Student Islamic Movement of India combine (Now they credibly calling and proving them as Indian Mujahedeen terror group).

The incidents took place one day after the reported arrest of Lashkar -e-Toiba linked Raheel Sheikh by the Interpol in London. Raheel is one of the alleged masterminds of the conspiracy and was involved in the funding of the July 11, 2006, Mumbai serial train blasts that killed nearly 200 commuters and wounded over 500 people on that fateful day.

Media Reports on the Terror Strikes:

Multiple attacks in Mumbai, 80 dead, hostages taken

Mumbai terror attack: top floor of Hotel Taj on fire

ATS chief, over 50 others killed in Mumbai terror strikes

Mumbai under attack: 60 dead, 200 injured

"Sex and the City"

FAZER OS DESEJOS

A KIM CATTRALL...

 

SEX AND THE RENAISSANCE

 

La comédienne de "Sex and the City", Kim Cattrall, apparaît dans une photographie de Tom Hunter recréant un tableau du Titien, "Diane et Actéon", et milite pour que l'œuvre soit visible du grand public. in Libé

 

Ok, aqui lhe fazemos a vontade que ela, claro, merece... e Tiziano o merece muito mais!

 

 

.

E, já agora, por falar de Tziano, vejam só como ele (um homem nascido ainda no século XV e que pinta na primeira metade do século XVI...) via Maria Madalena...

GRANDE  IRONIA...

Oliveira e Costa, do BPN, foi preso por um major da Brigada Fiscal da GNR. Ora, para quem tem memória, é ainda muito claro que Oliveira e Costa (nos idos dos governos de Cavaco...) foi um dos responsáveis pela extinção da Guarda Fiscal e respectiva redução a uma brigada da GNR. Agora, por acaso, é preso por um homem da “Fiscal”... A vida tem (nem sempre, mas frequentemente...) grandes ironias e este caso da prisão de Oliveira e Costa é uma delas e ainda com a oportuna componente de servir fria uma bela vingança da “Fiscal”!

Oliveira e Costa detido por major

Dez militares da Brigada Fiscal da GNR, comandados por um major, irromperam na passada quinta-feira, dia 20, pela quinta de Oliveira e Costa no Cartaxo para deter o ex-presidente do Banco Português (...)

OCDE: ÚLTIMAS PERSPECTIVAS

A coisa está mesmo preta e, note-se, as premissas da OCDE - como ela mesmo reconhece - são optimistas...

«De nombreux pays de l’OCDE subissent ou vont connaître une récession prolongée d’une ampleur qui est sans précédent depuis le début des années 80. En conséquence, le nombre de chômeurs dans la zone de l’OCDE pourrait augmenter de 8 millions ces deux prochaines années. Dans le même temps, l’inflation refluera dans tous les pays de l’OCDE, certains étant même exposés à un risque – certes faible – de déflation.

Ce numéro des Perspectives économiques contient des prévisions nettement plus pessimistes que celles qu’on pouvait faire il y a seulement quelques mois ; en effet, un grand nombre des risques d’évolution négative qu’on avait pu recenser précédemment se sont concrétisés. Les turbulences financières qui ont éclaté aux États-Unis vers le milieu de 2007 ont gagné le secteur financier non bancaire et ont rapidement contaminé le reste du monde. Après la faillite de Lehman Brothers à la mi-septembre, une perte générale de confiance dans les relations entre les institutions financières a déclenché des réactions proches du « black-out » sur les marchés mondiaux de capitaux. Les écarts de taux sur les marchés du crédit et les marchés obligataires sont rapidement montés à des niveaux très élevés, paralysant les marchés du crédit et les marchés monétaires. L’action rapide et massive des pouvoirs publics pour le rétablissement de la confiance et l’apport de liquidités paraît être parvenue à limiter la période de panique, mais l’impératif demeure pour les institutions financières de se désendetter et d’assainir leurs bilans. Ce processus d’ajustement, qui prendra du temps et nuira à la distribution du crédit, est le principal facteur qui pèsera à l’avenir sur l’activité.

Je tiens à souligner d’emblée l’extrême incertitude qui entoure ces Perspectives économiques de l’OCDE, surtout en ce qui concerne les hypothèses sur le rythme auquel la crise des marchés de capitaux – responsable au premier chef du ralentissement économique – pourra être surmontée. Plus précisément, nous supposons que les énormes tensions financières qui se manifestent depuis la mi-septembre seront de brève durée, mais ouvriront une longue période de dérèglements financiers jusqu’à la fin de 2009, le retour à la normale se faisant ensuite progressivement.

Dans ces conditions et compte tenu de nos hypothèses habituelles de maintien des taux de change et du prix du pétrole à leurs niveaux récents, les principales caractéristiques des perspectives économiques sont les suivantes :

                        Aux États-Unis, la production diminue au premier semestre de l’an prochain, puis se redresse progressivement à mesure que l’impact de la crise du crédit s’atténue, la baisse dans le secteur de l’immobilier prend fin et la relance due à la politique monétaire produit ses effets. Mais la reprise sera probablement languissante, la consommation étant freinée par les fortes pertes patrimoniales des ménages. L’inflation reflue très nettement, le repli récent des prix des matières premières se diffusant dans l’économie et le sous-emploi des ressources faisant pression à la baisse sur les prix.

                        Dans la zone euro, l’activité se contracte elle aussi ces six prochains mois, car le durcissement des conditions financières, la faible progression des revenus et les effets de richesse négatifs résultant de la baisse des prix des actions et des logements freinent la consommation et l’investissement. Puis l’activité économique se redresse progressivement à mesure que l’assouplissement monétaire se fait sentir et les effets des turbulences financières mondiales s’estompent. L’inflation diminuera fortement pour revenir au début de l’année prochaine à un niveau conforme à l’objectif d’inflation de la BCE.

• Le Japon n’a pas été l’épicentre de la crise financière, mais après un bref accès de croissance au début de 2009, à la faveur d’une relance budgétaire, la production devrait stagner au second semestre de 2009, le ralentissement économique mondial et l’appréciation récente du yen réduisant la demande extérieure. Avec un sous-emploi persistant des ressources économiques et une progression anémique des salaires, la déflation pourrait être de retour au milieu de 2009.

• Parmi les autres pays de l’OCDE où le ralentissement économique sera très marqué, il faut citer l’Espagne, la Hongrie, l’Irlande, l’Islande, le Luxembourg, le Royaume-Uni et la Turquie. Ces économies sont très directement touchées par la crise financière, qui a dans certains cas révélé d’autres faiblesses, ou par une forte baisse dans l’immobilier.

• Hors de la zone de l’OCDE, les principaux pays subissent eux aussi dans de nombreux cas un ralentissement économique, sous l’effet conjugué de quatre facteurs : les conditions de crédit plus restrictives au niveau international, un durcissement intérieur de la politique économique, les pertes de recettes dues à la baisse des prix des produits de base et l’affaiblissement de la demande émanant des pays de l’OCDE. Mais le ralentissement de la croissance intervient à partir de niveaux élevés.

La crise financière n’est pas le seul élément déterminant dans les prévisions. Un autre facteur important est l’ajustement en cours dans le secteur du logement, qui est loin d’être terminé dans un grand nombre d’économies européennes à en juger par les cycles précédents de l’immobilier. De plus, cet ajustement s’ajoute aux effets négatifs de patrimoine liés à la chute des cours des actions. Ces facteurs récessifs sont en partie compensés par les mesures de relance monétaire de grande ampleur – dont certaines prennent des formes n’ayant rien de traditionnel – qui ont été introduites récemment et dont il a été tenu compte dans les prévisions, et aussi par l’augmentation dont ont bénéficié les revenus réels des ménages grâce à la baisse sensible des prix des matières premières.

Les prévisions sont entourées de risques à la fois à la hausse et à la baisse, mais ce sont les risques baissiers qui prévalent pour 2009. Les principaux risques inclut un délai plus long que prévu avant que la situation financière se normalise, de nouvelles faillites d’institutions financières et la possibilité que des économies de marché émergentes soient plus durement touchées par le ralentissement du commerce mondial et la réévaluation des risques perçus par les investisseurs étrangers… »

Ver PDF aqui

MR. BARROSO, I PRESUME...

Depois de acabar de ouvir Barroso na televisão, recordo-me e invoco este simpático e optimista humor celta:

25 de Novembro de 1975

• A Região Militar do Norte, de Pires Veloso

• A Força Aérea, de Lemos Ferreira

• Os Comandos, de Jaime Neves

• E, last but not least, o esfíngico Presidente Costa Gomes
  

  Todos a agir articuladamente e num ambiente político maioritário de recusa das tentativas de imposição de formas totalitárias e ditatoriais de poder político e com a ajuda de milhares de civis que já tinham mostrado ao lado de Mário Soares, em Julho na Fonte Luminosa, ao que estavam dispostos...

APARELHO DO PS FRANCÊS DÁ

ACESSO DAS EMPRESAS À

INTELIGÊNCIA ECONÓMICA

Uma das razões que alguns empresários invocam para justificar o seu distanciamento da Inteligência Económica é a da falta de know-how ou, dito de outro modo, a falta de disponibilidade para o investimento necessário à criação na empresa de dispositivos de IE... E não vale a pena contrapor a isto que cada euro investido na IE é sempre o investimento mais bem remunerado. Mesmo que se explique que, em Portugal, são as empresas da Sonae que mais investem em IE e melhor dominam os seus dispositivos e know-how e que é issso que, em muito boa parte, explica o sucesso da gestão Sonae e a expansão do grupo do engenheiro Belmiro de Azevedo...

Mas há soluções para ultrapassar isto, esta incapacidade individual. Assim o compreendam o Estado e as associações empresariais, sobretudo a AIP de Rocha de Matos, que tem dado mostras de ser quem mais sensibilidade tem para a matéria. Assim as empresas o comecem a exigir... Veja-se, por exemplo, esta solução da Chambre de Commerce et Industrie de Paris, com o apoio de especialistas da ADIT, referido no jornal Le Parisien, que mostra bem como as empresas podem ter acesso à IE e ganhar (muito) com isso:   

 

Economie: Une cellule pour décrocher des marchés à l’étranger

J.H. | 13.11.2008, 07h00 

.

EN TOUTE DISCRÉTION, une centaine d’entreprises bénéficient du savoir-faire de la cellule de renseignement économique. L’objectif de ce service de la chambre de commerce ? Obtenir des informations, parfois sensibles, afin d’apporter une réponse concrète et rapide aux sociétés désireuses de s’implanter à l’étranger.

Les questions portent sur la concurrence sur place, le positionnement sur le marché, les questions financières.
.
« C’est connaître ses rivaux ou mourir »

«Avec la crise économique, le renseignement devient plus que jamais indispensable. C’est connaître ses rivaux ou mourir, résume Charles- Henry Rheinart, le responsable de la cellule. En France, la culture du renseignement n’existe pas. Il faut y amener les patrons.»

Inutile de fantasmer sur des James Bond en train de cambrioler des entreprises pour voler un brevet. «Ça, c’estde l’informationnoire, ambiance pied-de-biche et billet de banque dans les poches, explique Charles-Henry. Nous restons aux niveaux blancs et gris, des infos obtenues parfois en appelant directement les entreprises. » La cellule s’appuie sur ses trois membres permanents, dont un consultant de l’Adit, l’Agence pour la diffusion de l’information technologique, créée en 1992, s’appuyant sur un réseau de renseignement mondial, composé à l’origine d’employés d’ambassades. Les deux premières missions sont gratuites. « Après nous avoir consultés, une entreprise a récemment décroché un contrat de 10millions d’euros.Une autre gagne désormais neuf appels d’offres sur dix », se félicite Charles-Henry, qui se souvient d’une entreprise de BTP à la recherche de nouveaux débouchés. « Leurs concurrents avaient mis en ligne la liste de tous leurs clients. Il n’y avait plus qu’à passer un coup de fil et piquer le marché ! »

Renseignement auprès de la CCI au 01.60.79.90.80 ou à l’adresse s.laurent_essonne.cci.fr

Le Parisien

 

The End of Globalization...

“Brave New War: The Next Stage of Terrorism and the End of Globalization”, de John Robb, publicado no início de 2007, oferece uma leitura da situação global, inaugurada pelos acontecimentos do “11 de Setembro” e dá a perspectiva do autor da sua evolução e da resposta possível. Em síntese, Robb dá aqui a sua leitura do tipo de modelo global que está a emergir da fim da globalização, tornada impossível pelo “11 de Setembro”.

Uma visão muito radical, de resto, da possível evolução das nossas sociedades face à ameaça deste novo tipo... Ameaças que os recentes acontecimentos de pirataria no Indico (e não nas costas da Somália...) vêm precisar e que se integram no conceito de “disruption”. Mas, atenção, não são os piratas da Somália que afundam o sistema global. É o afundamento do sistema global que permite o aparecimento deste tipo de “actores” e que ocupem a boca de cena do palco mundial.

De notar que Robb escreveu “Brave New War” depois da dêbacle geopolítica de 2001 mas bem antes da implosão geoeconómica do “15 de Setembro” de 2008! Do seu ponto de vista, sem dúvida que a implosão geoeconómica só vem reforçar a sua visão radical do problema... O “Defense and the National Interest” fez uma ficha de leitura que também é interessante conhecer:

“Let me give away the ending:

Because we are unable to decapitate, outsmart, or defend ourselves against global guerrillas, naturally occurring events, and residual nationalism from causing cascades of failure throughout the global system, we need to learn to live with the threat they present. As we have already seen, this doesn't mean an activist foreign policy that seeks to rework the world in our image, police state measures to ensure state security or spending all of our resources on protecting everything. It does mean the adoption of a philosophy of resilience that ensures that when these events to occur (and they will), we can more easily survive their impact. (p. 182)

Since the end of World War II, the world's population has nearly tripled, the Internet has allowed anybody to network with everybody, nuclear weapons have made conventional war obsolete among major powers, and the fall of the Soviet Union has unleashed a witches' brew of armed non-state groups – global guerrillas – that operate in the cracks of the disintegrating state system.

This is just the static picture; the dynamics are even scarier. Global guerrillas practice something Robb calls "open source warfare," which simply means that in the modern environment, people even on different continents can form or join groups, train, and carry out operations much more quickly than in the past or by the major legacy states today. As the groups learn from each other (and a sort of Darwinism selects out the unfit), a larger pattern forms, an "emergent intelligence," similar to a marauding colony of army ants, no one of which is very sophisticated, but operating together according to simple rules, they are survivable, adaptable, and in a suitable environment, invincible.

As Robb summarizes it:

… the behavior of these insurgencies as a whole seems to learn, achieve goals, and engage in self-preservation, despite the vast differences in how individual groups are organized. (p. 126)

Such self-organization is not unusual in modern conflict – maneuver warfare is based on similar principles. What is new, however, is that the principle is now being applied not just to the tactics on the battlefield, but to the entire "ecosystem" itself – the creation, operation, interaction, survival, and growth of armed groups.

One could dismiss all of this as speculation except for a couple of facts:

·         Much of the software industry and a lot of the Internet (e.g., the Wikipedia) operate using the open source model today

·         Nothing else seems to explain the success of the people attacking our forces in Iraq

To construct this model, Robb employs a number of concepts that may be new to people unfamiliar with modern systems theory: close-coupled systems, self-organization, emergent properties (particularly "intelligence"), stigmergy, and the concept of complexity arising from simple processes. He also introduces new tools for understanding how systems work in the modern world: open source insurgency, global virtual states, superempowerment, systempunkts, and "black swans."

These are all powerful ideas and not in the least theoretical as Robb illustrates with events from the evening news. Whether you agree with Robb's end position or his solutions, these are concepts that are needed to describe why today's world is different from that of the Cold War. As with any rich theory, you may take these same ingredients, and others that are relevant to you, and come to different conclusions and different solutions.  But you can be sure that none of the solutions will be bureaucratic hierarchies.

It's brave and it's new, but is it "war"?

Although Robb makes a powerful – irrefutable in my opinion – case that armed groups of various motivations do form an "ecosystem" and operate in an open source fashion, he doesn't make a strong case that we should consider it "war." Does it make sense to talk about being at "war" with an ecosystem?

Is there anything wrong with calling it "war" anyway? Yes. Thinking we're at "war" against a centrally controlled enemy creates the types of abuses, things like Abu Ghraib, that add recruiting and motivating ammunition to the groups attacking us. It leads the US State Department into looking for "critical enemy elements" to eliminate (as they phrased it in the latest terrorism report), as if we were still fighting the Third Reich.

Robb himself identifies another of the problems of using the war metaphor where it doesn't apply – the "knee-jerk police state." Justice Antonin Scalia, for example, told an audience at John Carroll University in 2003 that Americans have too much freedom, that in time of "war," it is the government that grants right to citizens and not the other way around as specified in the Ninth and Tenth Amendments to the Constitution. We could also call this "doing Osama's job for him."

Thinking that we're at war also gives some people the idea that the military might be the answer. So we outspend the rest of the world, combined, and wonder why, despite virtually breaking the Army, we can't prevail against what appear to be a bunch of rag-tag guerrillas. Robb explains why, and if you read the paragraph that I opened this review with, you'll see that we could double defense spending yet again and not accomplish our goals.

The war metaphor is powerful, though, and as if to illustrate its dangers, even Robb falls prey to it:

Over time, perhaps in as little as twenty years, and as the leverage provided by technology increases, this threshold will finally reach its culmination – with the ability of one man to declare war on the world and win. (p. 8; emphasis in original)

Robb got a little carried away with this one. No, Dr. No isn't lurking under some Caribbean island. What is happening is the phenomenon of "emergent intelligence" among a dynamic and eclectic collection of armed groups that Robb so brilliantly describes in the second half of the book.

Solutions

Robb proposes a modern version of survivalism. We won't all be holed up in cabins in the woods, a la the Unabomber. But if we are living in a world that is "tightly coupled," where a glitch in the power system in Ohio can cascade into a massive outage involving 50,000,000 people along the entire East Coast, then the solution must involve some loosening.

Robb's general strategy is to improve resilience by any means possible. I could imagine, for example, that instead of building new power plants that, along with their distribution systems, are vulnerable to disruption, the government provides market incentives to improve resilience. The government could increase subsidies to utilities and require all of them to buy electricity from homeowners during the day and sell it at reduced rates at night. As more people add power generation capability to their houses - solar, wind, geothermal, hydroelectric, whatever - resilience improves. This may not be the most efficient solution, but in the age of open source insurgency, too much efficiency can be dangerous.

Government or no government, market forces guide behavior.  As Robb notes, private individuals with the means to do so are opting out of the public security system, similar to how they withdrew from public schools. Companies are springing up to compete for this business, and it's not the same lowest-bidder rent-a-cop outfits that you see at airports and malls. As these new private security companies skim off the cream of the security business, governments will be left with the dregs: The poor will migrate to urban megaclusters where Big Brother will watch their every move (p. 186).

At the national level, private military companies (PMCs) are already providing defense-related services to governments, including protecting U.S. ambassadors.  Chinese PMCs have contracted to provide security to Sudan's oil fields and for the Chinese companies developing the Angolan petroleum industry. In the future, PMCs will be available to provide an instant military force to any Third World government that needs – and can pay for – it. If the US government won't let them get into the business, there will be plenty who will (I'm indebted to TX Hammes' recent article - 1GB PDF -  on 4/5 GW for the ideas in much of this paragraph).

You may not like this trend, but it is here to stay. For one thing, it is certainly working very well for the groups we are fighting. To compete against a hostile ecosystem, Robb recommends using market forces as much as we can to build resilience into our own country, while learning to use the power of open source networks to provide the residual national security we do need – in cooperation with like-minded states and other groups. In this regard, the US Department of Defense is part of the problem, not the solution (pp. 163, 176-177) and, one presumes, will have to be decommissioned.

Recommendation

John has produced an important book that should help jar the United States and other legacy states out of their Cold War mindset. You can read it in a couple of hours – so you should read it twice, especially if some of the systems-related concepts are new to you. Then read (or review) Martin van Creveld's 1991 masterpiece, The Transformation of War, which provides a lot of the theoretical underpinning for the specific concepts that Robb describes.

Whether you agree with his solutions is not important. However, the pieces of the problem are real and we are going to have to create ways to deal with open source conflict – an intelligence that emerges through the dynamic interaction of religious fanatics, street gangs, criminal cartels, and at times even other states – or face a series of disruptions that will severely degrade our quality of life.”

GLOBALIZATION: THE END…

OU O "FIM DE UMA ÉPOCA"!

" Somália: Mais um cargueiro tomado de assalto por piratas

Um cargueiro com bandeira de Hong Kong e tripulação estrangeira foi tomado de assalto no Golfo de Ádem, no mesmo dia em que um navio pesqueiro de Kiribati foi abordado na mesma zona, e dias após o assalto a um super-petroleiro saudita… O cargueiro Delight, de bandeira de Hong Kong e com uma tripulação de 25 pessoas de outras nacionalidades, foi sequestrado no Golfo de Ádem, entre a Somália e o Iémen. O navio transportava 36 mil toneladas de trigo para o Irão.

Este é o mais recente incidente na região. Também na terça-feira, um navio de pesca do Kiribati, com 12 tripulantes, foi igualmente tomado de assalto pelos piratas. No sábado deu-se o mais grave sequestro das últimas semanas. O Sirius Star, um super-petroleiro com 332 metros de comprimento, foi desviado na costa do Quénia, a sul da Somália.

O navio transportava dois milhões de barris de petróleo, avaliados em mais de 100 milhões de dólares, e está agora ancorado ao largo da Somália. No petroleiro encontram-se vários piratas e 25 tripulantes de várias nacionalidades, incluindo 19 filipinos, dois britânicos, dois polacos, um croata e um saudita. A Arábia Saudita considerou o ataque ao Sirius Star «um acto revoltante» e apelou a uma acção internacional coordenada contra a pirataria marítima.

O Sirius Star é o maior navio de sempre a ser sequestrado, confirmam as agências noticiosas internacionais. Neste momento há já centenas de tripulantes de navios raptados na Somália, com as mais variadas nacionalidades.

Segundo a BBC, os tripulantes são normalmente bem tratados pelos raptores, e acabam por ser libertados depois dos armadores pagarem resgates milionários."

FIM DA GLOBALIZAÇÃO

Como é que é mesmo o subtítulo de "Brave New War", de John Robb, publicado nos idos do início de 2007…?

Há anos, portanto, que só não vê quem não quer ver… Os tais que são os piores cegos! Ou ainda quem, em vez de olhar e ver a realidade, anda enfronhado em leituras já atrasadas (dada a velocidade das mudanças) e ignora, portanto, o que se está já a passar à sua volta.

Tinha muita graça essa coisa de ver uma série de gente aos saltos e em grande ebulição contra a globalização e seus malefícios quando ela já estava moribunda e a questão era já saber o que viria no pós-globalização  e que tipo de coisas íamos sofrer.

A esquerda "verdadeiramente marxista" foi notável neste exercício e até Soares ainda aí fez um pequeno número… Essa "esquerda" provou aí e mais uma vez a radicalidade dos "óculos" de Marx: mostram claramente o que os seus portadores querem ver e ocultam cuidadosamente a realidade! E, ao fazê-lo, esta esquerda "verdadeiramente marxista" conseguia que não fosse notada a realidade da "disruption"… Mas, a outros, ela não passou em branco! E, claro, nem tão pouco as suas consequências… Como bem se nota ao examinar os mapas de Tom Barnett!  Mas quem se preocupa com mapas e "disruptions" quando uns "xutos" de ideologia (da pura!) reconfortam muito mais as alminhas…?

No Claro, há largo tempo que aqui tínhamos referido este inexorável fim da globalização e alertado que o que nos interessa mesmo é esta mudança em curso do modelo global, o preço a pagar por isso e como fazer para não figurar no rol dos perdedores mas sim integrar o "centro" do sistema… E, ao fazê-lo, até provocámos um pequeno escândalo, como os leitores regulares ainda estarão lembrados.

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Mas é um clássico esta coisa de certas cabeças só perceberem o problema do pau quando levam com ele em plena tola!

Problemas de expressão e... Maminhas!

AS 5 MISSÕES PARA

O POLÍTICO PORTUGÊS

E A VAGINA GULOSA...

Este “Encontro em Barcelona” podia dar um filme... Por ora, dá uma notícia no “El Mundo”, aqui reproduzida e sem comentários. E nada de perguntar quem é o homem...

FORÇAS ARMADAS: INSTITUIÇÃO

ÚNICA, AXIAL E IMPRESCINDÍVEL

Comemora-se dentro de dias o 33º aniversário do “25 de Novembro”, esse dia em que as Forças Armadas eliminaram ameaças totalitárias ao novo regime e estabilizaram o quadro democrático da República Portuguesa. Uma data importante e muito adequada para lançar uma reflexão séria sobre o papel único e imprescindível das Forças Armadas para Portugal e para a Democracia. E sobre a sua modernização, sobre o que num cenário global novo pode a Defesa fazer de novo e com que novos instrumentos para garantir os velhos objectivos que a República lhe comete.

O regime democrático português (face a uma catastrófica crise económica e, consequentemente, social que se perfila para anos) vai ainda sofrer muito a necessidade de umas Forças Armadas sólidas, coesas, inteligentes e disciplinadas. Tem, por isso e no seu próprio interesse, de as cuidar e acarinhar...

Em Portugal, a instituição militar é a única  que detém larguíssima memória histórica, sentido de serviço público e inteligência estratégica. Nenhuma outra instituição, no nosso país, apresenta uma tal tríade de qualidades próprias. É, por isso, uma instituição axial e estratégica para o futuro de Portugal e não pode como tal estar à mercê de políticos de circunstância e  sem dimensão de Estado, suas vendettas e venetas.

José Sócrates mostrou já perceber este carácter único da instituição militar e, depois de longos meses de mal-entendidos entre o seu ministro da Defesa e a hierarquia militar, reafirmou o seu entendimento da especificidade do “militar” e explicitou que vê a reforma da Defesa como “um projecto partilhado com as Forças Armadas”. Já o podia ter feito há mais de um ano e assim teria evitado uma crise de confiança que se arrastou durante meses e meses... Mas, enfim, mais vale tarde que nunca e Sócrates acaba por reafirmar a sua vocação de infatigável “bombeiro da República”.

SOARES ACORDOU...

“A democracia... pode estar em causa” e “a Europa pode deixar de ser um bastião da democracia”. Duas afirmações de Mário Soares em crónica no DN de 18 Novembro de 2008. Há dois dias, portanto, e não em 1975... No mesmo dia em que aqui no Claro se avisava para certos equívocos actuais e... fatais! Soares parece ter acordado para uma realidade nova mas bem presente...

DA GUERRA ECONÓMICA

O nosso mundo, após a queda do muro e a entrada da China na economia de mercado, tornou-se num local de hipercompetitividade global a que não escapa qualquer estado nem qualquer empresa. 

Esta situação nova exige a empresas e estados novas capacidades de resposta que, por sua vez, exigem novas abordagens e novos dispositivos de conhecimento. Ter a noção destas realidades e agir em consequência é indispensável a quem queira sobreviver neste novo mundo hipercompetitivo.

Desde o programa Clinton de 1994 que a resposta adequada a estas novas necessidades tem vindo a ser desenvolvida com a Inteligência Competitiva, seus dispositivos específicos e suas metodologias inovadoras, com o objectivo de antecipar e de modelar a realidade.

Para sobreviver na guerra económica global, é disto que temos de tratar e de nos ocupar. Antes que outros se ocupem de nós…

A crise global, o regresso do Estado-nação (e da geopolítica) que ela está a induzir e a emergência de um novo modelo da economia global agudizam a guerra económica e tornam a questão ainda mais premente.

Já sabe em quem vai votar?

EL CONDOR PASA, NO CLARO

YMA SUMAC,  COM SAUDADE

O EX-KGB NO COMANDO

Bruscamente no verão passado, em Moscovo, os ex-KBG saíram da sombra e mostram-se na linha da frente. Se até à guerra da Geórgia, durante o verão, os ex-KGB manobravam nos bastidores (embora tivessem colocado o seu major Putine à frente do estado), depois da guerra passaram mesmo para a linha da frente, dominam as grandes empresas (Rosneft, Rosoboronexport...),  os sectores estratégicos do armamento e da energia, os “assuntos internos”, os media e até, como nota Vincent Jauvert, do “Nouvel Observateur”, a política externa e a diplomacia.

Les ‘ex’ du KGB à la manoeuvre

Depuis la guerre en Géorgie, les faucons du régime Poutine sont à la manoeuvre. Leur chef s'appelle Igor Setchine. Cet ancien du KGB est à la fois vice- Premier ministre et patron de la première entreprise pétrolière du pays, Rosneft. Depuis le mois d'août, il tente d'organiser un front anti-Washington en Amérique latine, où il s'est rendu à deux reprises.

 A Cuba, il a déclaré qu'il fallait réactiver les «relations traditionnelles» entre Moscou et La Havane. Il a même dit que la Russie devrait rouvrir une base sur l'île castriste - comme au bon vieux temps.

Au Venezuela, il a assisté aux vols d'entraînement de deux bombardiers stratégiques russes, dépêchés la veille de Russie. Ensuite, il s'est rendu au Nicaragua, seul pays, outre la Russie, à avoir reconnu les deux entités séparatistes géorgiennes.

En l'accueillant, le président du pays, l'ex-révolutionnaire sandiniste Ortega, a déclaré que la lumière de Moscou «éclairait toujours le monde».

Il y a plus sérieux. La même semaine, un autre «faucon» a fait une annonce d'une portée géostratégique potentiellement considérable, et cela sans être démenti par le Kremlin.

L'homme en question est Anatoli Issaïkine, ancien du KGB, lui aussi, et patron de la gigantesque société publique russe de ventes d'armes Rosoboronexport.

Le 17 septembre, il a révélé qu'il était en train de négocier avec Téhéran la vente du système de défense anti-aérienne le plus sophistiqué de l'arsenal russe, des batteries qui protégeraient les sites nucléaires iraniens contre une éventuelle attaque israélienne ou américaine.

Si elle avait effectivement lieu, une telle livraison serait une attaque frontale contre les Etats-Unis et leurs alliés, sans précédent depuis la fin de la guerre froide.

Vincent Jauvert Le Nouvel Observateur

"Agitação Laboral" Preocupa China

33 Anos depois começa a saber-se

COMO FOI O "25 DE NOVEMBRO" 

O general Pires Veloso, em entrevista ao CM, diz que no “25 de Novembro” de 1975 (o golpe militar que estabeleceu a Democracia que temos, "Ramalho Eanes não fez nada”.

O comandante da Região Militar do Norte, de 1975 e 1976, vai publicar as memórias dos meses de brasa que se seguiram ao 25 de Abril. O livro deverá ser lançado no próximo dia 25 de Novembro. A data certa, claro!

Caso BPN: Oliveira e Costa detido

O ex-presidente do Banco Português de Negócios (BPN) foi detido hoje e constituído arguido pelo Departamento Central de Investigação e Acção Penal (DCIAP) por crimes de burla e branqueamento de capitais.

A Procuradoria considerou existirem indícios suficientes da prática dos crimes de burla e branqueamento na ex-administração do BPN, liderada por Oliveira e Costa. Este responsável deverá ainda hoje ser presente ao juiz do Tirbunal de Instrução Criminal (TIC).

Entretanto, o Procurador Geral da República (PGR) escreveu aos diversos grupos parlamentares oferecendo-se para... continua Aqui no CM

Nota do Claro: Terá o aparelho judiciário (e as polícias) a coragem e a inteligência necessárias para desmantelar esse verdadeiro polvo do "complexo salazarento e neo-corporativo"...? Se tiver, saiu a sorte grande a Portugal...

O QUE DIZ MENEZES...?!

As declarações de Luís Filipe Menezes à RTPN, sobre a dimensão política do caso BPN, são do mais grave que se pode imaginar... A PGR vai ficar impassível (e, consequentemente, branquear a situação criada, perdendo a oportunidade) ou vai chamar Menezes a declarações...?

DAR A VOLTA À CRISE

"Queremos fazer da crise uma oportunidade para o desenvolvimento" disse hoje Sarkozy, ao anunciar o lançamento de um “fundo soberano à francesa”, para apoiar as empresas estratégicas francesas que caiam em dificuldades face à crise ou fiquem susceptíveis de passar sob o controlo de grupos estrangeiros. "Já que os bancos estão friorentos e não investem, nós financiaremos",  disse Sarkozy para explicar que lança "uma política pragmática".

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Depois do fracasso do G20, ficou claro que a resposta à crise global será feita pelos estados não de modo concertado mas na base do “cada um por si”. Sarkozy, como é hábito, não perdeu tempo e anunciou este “fundo estratégico de investimento”, como a arma francesa anti-crise, dotado de 20 mil milhões de euros.

A resposta à crise reabilita assim o Estado-nação, de que muita gente, num manifesto exagero, havia anunciado a morte, já há anos. E com o Estado-nação regressa, aos comandos e em força, a geopolítica... E com esta reafirmam-se as necessidades de estratégia e da sua (prévia) inteligência! A mudança do modelo global, é claro, está mesmo em marcha e já fez o seu take-off...  Ver a notícia Aqui

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Un "fonds souverain" de 20 milliards, l'arme anti-crise de Sarkozy
	Nicolas Sarkozy a présenté jeudi un "fonds souverain à la française" doté de 20 milliards d'euros en 2009. Ce fonds est destiné à intervenir "massivement chaque fois qu'une entreprise stratégique aura besoin de fonds propres". Lire

INTERVIEW
Comment la Caisse des dépôts compte devenir un fonds souverain
Dans un entretien à JDN Economie, le directeur général de la Caisse des dépôts explique comment il pourrait investir à l'étranger. Vidéo

A nuvem de títulos, de hoje, mostra bem como

A grande crise global já contaminou Portugal...

BPP pede aval de 750 milhões

O Banco Privado Português (BPP), que opera no negócio do ‘private banking’, pediu um aval ao Estado de 750 milhões de euros de forma a combater as dificuldades que o sistema financeiro atravessa. O (...)

Calotes sobem para os oito mil milhões

A actual crise está a ter "um efeito severo sobre a Banca". As instituições estão a sofrer um (...)

Livraria Byblos fecha portas

A Livraria Byblos, a maior do país, encerrou esta quinta-feira as suas portas ao público, tendo apresentado um processo de (...)

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Salários em atraso 

Famílias devem 2 anos de salários 

Crédito malparado vai duplicar até 2009

Imobiliário: Crise internacional adia recuperação do sector em Portugal - estudo consultora

Crise arrasa com indústria automóvel

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Teixeira dos Santos admite agravamento das condições económicas

Sócrates defende investimento público

QUEM SÃO OS ACCIONISTAS

"SUSPENDER A DEMOCRACIA..."

A gaffe parva de Manuela Ferreira Leite

A senhora nem é má senhora, não tem é jeito nenhum para a coisa. Não tem réstea do que se chama inteligência política... E tem uma comunicação absolutamente "tipo serra"!

Semelhante a esta, só a que o "comunicador" pôs Mário Lino a vomitar sobre o "deserto" com o "jamais"... Lino que também não é má pessoa!

A gaffe de MFL é tanto mais parva (senão mesmo estúpida) quanto ela devia saber que se alguma vez a democracia fôr suspensa não será com ela, nem ela será admitida no tabuleiro desse jogo... a não ser como peça comida!

E também deveria saber que ao falar como falou, o que ela estava a fazer, para a grande opinião pública, era apenas o elogia do voluntarismo e coragem de Sócrates... Que lhe devia enviar um ramo de rosas vermelhas, em jeito de agradecimento!

ESTÁ O ESTADO EM CO-GESTÃO...?

Depois de ouvir, nos últimos dias, uma catadupa de declarações dos sindicatos dos professores, surgem-me duas grandes dúvidas:

• O Estado está em co-gestão governo-sindicatos?

• Quem elegeu os sindicatos para a gestão do Estado?

Claro que, por mim, quero declarar que não votei, nas eleições legislativas, em Mário Nogueira algum. E gostava que alguém esclarecesse o pretenso modelo de co-gestão...

Parece-me, porém, que com esta confusão, com esta vontade sindical de uma “co-gestão” do Estado, alguém se está a enganar muito. E não é de um ponto de vista teórico, pois nisso não há teoria alguma mas apenas uma amálgama lançada por estes sindicalistas que parecem querer gerir o Estado em parceria com o governo.

Se os sindicatos, na velha tradição comunista, entraram em campanha contra uma vitória do PS nas próximas eleições, se querem impedir uma nova vitória socialista daqui a uns meses, e se Mário Nogueira está em campanha para se alcandorar a patrão da Inter, no lugar do “mole” Carvalho da Silva, é preciso dizer que não se aperceberam que já desapareceu o quadro em que, tradicionalmente, tais manobras tinham a sua racionalidade própria, embora bizarra. E é aí que radica o engano deles.

O quadro em que, desde o fim dos anos setenta, foi possível aos comunistas fazer uma aliança negativa com o PSD (e com vantagens para ambas as partes...), sempre em oposição ao PS, desapareceu.

Desapareceram, com a crise global, os fundamentos e parâmetros económicos desse quadro (e em 2009 já vão ter umas aulas práticas sobre esta matéria...) e desapareceu mesmo a paisagem partidária e, obviamente, os seus equilíbrios. O PSD (desde que não consegue passar os 30% nas intenções de voto) é cada vez menos o parceiro que os comunistas precisam (e tinham...) para esta aliança negativa. Em contrapartida, em Belém está um presidente que, ao contrário dos anteriores presidentes, sabe e é capaz de ter a sua própria agenda de poder... Sugiro aos sindicalistas e ao CC do PC que analisem bem e meditem o sibilino aviso de Cavaco sobre o “direito à manifestação”. E, apesar das suas já antigas referências a Kautsky e Bernstein, não registo qualquer manifestação de simpatia do Presidente Cavaco sobre a co-gestão... Ainda antes do fim de 2009, se verá!

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Última nota: não deixa de ser interessante (para a análise...) que comunistas e sindicalistas apenas tenham encontrado como "massas", para lançar contra o governo e o PS, os professores e não quaisquer "proletários" de alguma "cintura vermelha" ou "camponeses pobres" de "zonas libertadas".

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Os professores são uma profissão protegida, têm um estatuto de protegidos e não estão sujeitos às leis normais de trabalho que só se aplicam aos paisanos da "privada" e não aos protegidos do estatuto da função pública... uma espécie de "fidalguia" face aos comuns mortais sujeitos às oscilações do mercado e ao código de trabalho. 

G20, crise e estabilidade:

“CADA UM QUE RESOLVA

OS SEUS PROBLEMAS...”

Para a Stratfor e depois da reunião de Washington do G20, “the geopolitical problem confronting the world at the moment is that it has been forced to offer massive support to the global financial system with sovereign wealth  (…)  A wave of massive business failures on top of the financial crisis might well move the global system to a very different place. Therefore, each nation, by itself and indifferent to others, is in the process of figuring out how to postpone these failures to a more opportune time — or to never.  (…)  And the last thing any one cared about was the G-20 concept for the future of the economic system.”

On G-20 and GM: Economics, Politics and Social Stability

By George Friedman

November 17, 2008

Related Special Topic Pages

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·                       Political Economy and the Financial Crisis

The G-20 met last Saturday. Afterward, the group issued a meaningless statement and decided to meet again in March 2009, or perhaps later. Clearly, the urgency of October is gone. First, the perception of imminent collapse is past. Politicians are superb seismographs for detecting impending disaster, and these politicians did not act as if they were running out of time. Second, the United States will have a new president in March, and nothing can be done until he defines his policy.

Given the sense in Europe that this financial crisis marked the end of U.S. economic supremacy, it is ironic that the Europeans are waiting on the Americans. One would think they would be using their newfound ascendancy to define the new international system. But the fact is that for all the shouting, little has changed in the international order.

The crisis has receded sufficiently that nothing more needs to be done immediately beyond “cooperation,” and nothing can be done until the United States defines what will be done. We feel that our view that the international system received fatal blows Aug. 8, when Russia and Georgia went to war, and Oct. 11, when the G-7 meeting ended without a single integrated solution, remains unchallenged. Now, it is every country for itself.

From Financial Crisis to Cyclical Recession

The financial crisis has been mitigated, if not solved. The problem now is that we are in a cyclical recession, and that every country is trying to figure out how to cope with the recession. Unlike the past two recessions, this one is more global than local. But unlike the 1970s, when recession was global, this one is not accompanied by soaring inflation and interest rates.

All recessions have different dynamics, but all have one thing in common: They impose punishment and discipline on economies run wild. This is happening around the world.

China, for example, faces a serious problem. China is an export-oriented economy whose primary market is the United States. As the United States goes into recession, demand for Chinese goods declines. Chinese businesses have always operated on very tight — sometimes invisible — profit margins designed to emphasize cash flow and to pay off debts to banks. As U.S. demand contracts, many Chinese firms find themselves in untenable positions, without room to decrease prices, lacking operating reserves and insufficiently capitalized. Recessions are designed to cull the weak from the herd, and a huge swath of the Chinese economy is ripe for the culling.

If the world were all about economics, culling is what the Chinese would do. But the world is more complex than that. A culling would lead to massive unemployment. Many Chinese employees live on Third World wages; indeed, the vast majority of Chinese have incomes of less than $1,000 a year. To them, unemployment doesn’t mean problems with their 401k. It means malnutrition and desperation — neither of which is unknown in 20th century Chinese history, including the Communist period. The Chinese government is rightly worried about the social and political consequences of rational economic policies: They might work in the long run, but only if you live that long.

Economic Restructuring vs. Stability

The Chinese have therefore prepared a massive stimulus package that is more of a development program to make up for declining U.S. demand. It aims to keep businesses from failing and spilling millions of angry and hungry workers into the street. For the Chinese, the economic problem creates a much larger and more serious issue. It is also an issue that must be solved quickly, and the amount of time needed outstrips the amount of time available.

This is not only a Chinese problem. Wherever there is an economic downturn, politicians must decide whether society — and their own political futures — can withstand the rigors recessions impose. Recessions occur when, as is inevitable, inefficiencies and irrationalities build up in the financial and economic system. The resulting economic downturn imposes a harsh discipline that destroys the inefficient, encourages everyone to become more efficient, and opens the doors to new businesses using new technologies and business models. The year 2001 smashed the technology sector in the United States, opening the door for Google Inc.

The business cycle works well, but the human costs can be daunting. The collapse of inefficient businesses leaves workers without jobs, investors without money and society less stable than before. The pain needed to rectify China’s economy would be enormous, with devastating consequences for hundreds of millions of Chinese, and probably would lead to social chaos. Beijing is prepared to accept a high degree of economic inefficiency to avoid, or at least postpone, the reckoning. The reckoning always comes, but for most of us, later is better than sooner. Economic rationality takes a back seat to social necessity and political common sense.

Every country in the world is looking inward at the impact of the recession on its economy and measuring its resources. Countries are deciding whether they have the ability to prop up business that should fail, what the social consequences of business failure would be, and whether they should try to use their resources to avoid the immediate pain of recession. This is why the G-20 ended in meaningless platitudes.

Each country is also trying to answer the question of how much pain it — and its regime — can endure. The more pain imposed, the healthier countries will emerge economically — unless of course the pain kills them. Ultimately, the rationality of economics and the reality of society frequently diverge.

Recession and the U.S. Auto Industry

For the United States, this choice has been posed in stark terms with regard to the dilemma of whether the U.S. government should use its resources to rescue the American auto industry. The American auto industry was once the centerpiece of the U.S. economy. That hasn’t been true for a generation, as other industries and services have supplanted it and other countries’ auto industries have surpassed it. Nevertheless, the U.S. auto industry remains important. It might drain the U.S. economy by losing vast amounts of money and destroying the equity held by its investors, but it employs large numbers of people. Perhaps more important, it purchases supplies from literally thousands of U.S. companies.

There can be endless discussions of why the U.S. auto industry is in such trouble. The answer lies not in one place but in many, from the decisions and makeup of management to the unions that control much of the workforce, and from the cost structure inherent in producing cars in the American economy to a simple systemic inability to produce outstanding vehicles. There might be varying degrees of truth to all or some of this, but the fact remains that each of the U.S. carmakers is on the verge of financial collapse.

This is what recessions are supposed to do. As in China and everywhere else, recessions reveal weak businesses and destroy them, freeing up resources for new enterprises. This recession has hit the auto industry hard, and it is unlikely that it is going to survive. The ultimate reason is the same one that destroyed the U.S. steel industry a generation ago: Given U.S. cost structures, producing commodity products is best left to countries with lower wage rates, while more expensive U.S. labor is deployed in more specialized products requiring greater expertise. Thus, there is still steel production in the United States, but it is specialty steel production, not commodity steel. Similarly, there will be specialty auto production in the United States, but commodity auto production will come from other countries. < /p>

That sounds easy, but the transition actually will be a bloodletting. Current employees of both the automakers and suppliers will be devastated. Institutions that have lent money to the automakers will suffer massive or total losses. Pensioners might lose pensions and health care benefits, and an entire region of the United States — the industrial Midwest — will be devastated. Something stronger will grow eventually, but not in time for many of the current employees, shareholders and creditors.

Here the economic answer, cull, meets the social answer, stabilize. Policymakers have a decision to make. If the automakers fail now, their drain on the economy will end; the pain will be shorter, if more intense; and new industries would emerge more quickly. But though their drain on the economy would end, the impact of the automakers’ failure on the economy would be seismic. Unemployment would surge, as would bankruptcies of many auto suppliers. Defaults on loans would hit the credit markets. In the Midwest, home prices would plummet and foreclosures would skyrocket. And heaven only knows what the impact on equity markets would be.

In the U.S. case, the healthful purgative of a recession could potentially put the patient in a coma. Few if any believe the U.S. auto industry can survive in its current form. But there is an emerging consensus in Washington that the auto industry must not be allowed to fail now. The argument for spending money on the auto industry is not to save it, but to postpone its failure until a less devastating and inconvenient time. In other words, fearing the social and political consequences of a recession working itself through to its logical conclusion, Washington — like Beijing — wants to spend money it probably won’t recover to postpone the failure. Indeed, governments around the world are considering what failures to tolerate, what failures to postpone, and how much to spend on the latter. General Motors is merely the American case in point.

The Recession in Context

The people arguing for postponement aren’t foolish. The financial system is still working its way through a massive crisis that had little to do with the auto industry. Some traction appears to be occurring; certainly there was no crisis atmosphere at the G-20 meeting. The economy is in recession, but in spite of the inevitable claims that we have never seen anything like this one before, we have. There is always some variable that swings to an extreme — this time, it is consumer spending — but we are still well within the framework of recent recessions.

Consider the equity markets, which we regard as a long-term measure of the market’s evaluation of the state of the economy. In January 2000, the S&P 500 peaked at 1,455. This was the top of the market. In July 2002, 18 months later, the S&P bottomed out at 935. Over the next five years it rose to 1,519 in July 2007, the height for this cycle. It fell from this point until Nov. 12, 2008, when it closed at 852.30. This past Friday, it was at 873.29.

We do not know what the market will do in the future. There are people much smarter than we are who claim to know that. What we do know is what it has done. And what it has done this time — so far — is almost exactly what it did last time, except that in 2000-2002 it took 18 months to do it, while this time it was done in about 16 and a half months (assuming it bottomed out Nov. 12). But even if the market didn’t bottom out then, and it falls to 775, for example, it will have lost 50 percent of its value from the peak. This would be more than in 2000-2002, but not unprecedented.

The point we are making here is that if we regard the equity markets as a long-term seismograph of the economy, then so far, despite all the storm and stress, the markets — and therefore the economy — remain within the general pattern of the 2000-2002 market at the 2001 recession. That recession certainly was unpleasant, what with the devastation of the tech sector, but the economy survived. At the same time, however, it is clear that things are balanced on a knife’s edge. Another hundred points’ fall on the S&P, and the markets will be telling us that the world is in a very different place indeed.

A massive bankruptcy in the automotive sector could certainly set the stage for an economic renaissance in the next generation. But at this particular moment in time (it’s no coincidence that the crisis in the U.S. automotive industry comes as we enter a recession), a wave of bankruptcies would dramatically deepen the recession. This probably would be reflected by the destruction of trillions more in net worth in the equity markets.

There is a powerful counterargument to bailing out the U.S. auto industry. This argument holds that the auto industry is a drain on the U.S. economy, that it will never be globally competitive, and that if it is dragged back from the edge, no one will then say it is time to push it to the edge and over. The next time it will be on the brink will be during the next recession, and the same argument to save it will be used. In due course, the United States, like China, will be so terrified of the social and political consequences of business failure that it will maintain Chinese-like state owned enterprises, full of employees and generation-old plants and business models. Clearly, short-run solutions can easily become long-term albatrosses.

The only possible solution would be a bailout followed by a Washington-administered restructuring of the auto industry. This causes us to imagine a collaboration between the auto industry’s current management and Washington administrators that would finally put Detroit on a path to where it can compete with Toyota. Frankly, the mind boggles at this. But boggle though we might, hitting the economy with another massive financial default, a wave of bankruptcies, massive unemployment surges and another blow to housing prices boggles our mind even more.

The geopolitical problem confronting the world at the moment is that it has been forced to offer massive support to the global financial system with sovereign wealth — e.g., via taxes and currency printing presses. The world might just have squeaked through that crisis. Now, the world is in an inevitable recession and businesses are on the brink of failure. A wave of massive business failures on top of the financial crisis might well move the global system to a very different place. Therefore, each nation, by itself and indifferent to others, is in the process of figuring out how to postpone these failures to a more opportune time — or to never. This will build in long-term inefficiencies to the global economy, but right now everyone will be quite content with that.

Thus the financial crisis became a recession, and the recession triggered bankruptcies. And because no one wants bankruptcies right now, everyone who can is using taxpayer dollars to protect the taxpayer from the consequences of mismanagement. And the last thing any one cared about was the G-20 concept for the future of the economic system.

Emmanuelle Béart

via "Deus..."

O cigarrinho... Ai o cigarrinho da Emmanuelle Béart... Quem não fumaria um cigarrinho com ela? Até o pobre do Chico Jorge...

O "POLVO" DA CÂMARA VAI

DEVORAR ANTÓNIO COSTA?

António Costa mostra-se preocupado com os professores mas é com a Câmara que deve preocupar-se... Depois das "casinhas" e da multiplicação dos assessores a milhares de euros cada um e tudo isto numa câmara falida e que nem paga a fornecedores, o Correio da Manhã descobriu mais uma assessora a 3.950 euros/mês! Oh, António...

ASSESSORA DE LUXO NA CÂMARA DE LISBOA
in "O Jumento"

«A vereadora da Câmara de Lisboa Manuela Júdice contratou uma assessora para o gabinete que lidera por 3950 euros. A admissão surge pouco depois de a autarca assumir o cargo de vereadora a tempo inteiro para desenvolver o projecto cultural ‘Lisboa, encruzilhada de mundos’, no âmbito do acordo que António Costa assinou com os Cidadãos por Lisboa.

Ao contrário de Helena Roseta, que prescindiu do ordenado de vereadora a tempo inteiro, Manuela Júdice abandonou os CTT e recebeu a nova atribuição.»  [Correio da Manhã]

Parecer: É sempre assim.

Despacho do Director-Geral do Palheiro: «Sugira-se a António Costa que se preocupe mais com a câmara do que com os professores.»

TRAVESSIA FERROVIÁRIA DO TEJO

carta aberta do Professor Brotas a António Costa

António Costa, no Expresso de hoje, propõe que a ponte sobre o Tejo baixe de vários metros o seu tabuleiro, invocando "impactos visuais" e "defesa do património". É um argumentário muito deste "ar do tempo" e muito "politicamente correcto". Ignoro se António Costa analisou efeitos colaterais e fez as contas. Se o fez é uma excepção neste tipo de discurso político que tem por norma não se preocupar com tais "detalhes"... De qualquer modo, António Costa já tem a resposta do Prof. António BRotas. Uma resposta informada e lúcida, como sempre.

"15 de Novembro de 2008 

Morreu Yma Sumac

One woman, many voices

Foi no Verdade ou Consequência que li esta triste notícia: Yma Sumac, esse caso único de “one woman, many voices”, já não poderá mais cantar nem gravar. Deixou-nos. Partiu, definitivamente. E como ela cantava: “que las partidas son tan tristes”... E assim se foi essa senhora “princesa inca (que) dava conta de quatro oitavas sem franzir um sobrolho. Paz à sua divindade.”

Yma Sumac

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 Yma Sumac - Chuncho - (LIVE)

Yma Sumac - One woman, many voices (I).

A CARA DO "MELHOR RABO"

Toda a gente lhe mostrou o rabo, o Claro faz questão de também a mostrar de frente. Ok, o rabo dela foi eleito o melhor rabo do mundo mas não é razão para lhe vermos a cara da brasileira Melanie Fronckowiak. Assim, já pode apreciar a cara do "melhor rabo do mundo", segundo o concurso anual de uma marca de cuecas.

ESCÂNDALO EM PORTUGAL...!

Apreciada então a cara do "melhor rabo do mundo", aprecie-se a dimensão real de um verdadeiro escândalo nacional: o melhor rabo em Portugal é o de uma francesa com nome esquisito, Marie Brethenoux. Como diria o Pitigrili, quando se chega às coisas sérias... Bom, aqui ficam a cara e o rabo desta Marie.

"O PESSOAL NÃO SE ENXERGA...

"O pessoal, dizia-me um amigo, não enxerga bem a situação em que estamos entalados. Com as notícias dizem que "isto está mau" mas continuam a fazer tudo igual e na mesma, como se não passasse nada... Por exemplo, estes miúdos que agora atiram ovos, tomates e batatas a uns fulanos do governo, oxalá não precisem para comer, já daqui a uns meses, desse material que agora usam para tiro ao alvo. Se não precisarem, é que os pais deles estão com sorte... Mas, vá-se lá saber porquê, enquanto não está totalmente na merda, o pessoal não se enxerga!"

A primeira viagem

de Obama à Europa será em Abril, para comemorar o 60.º aniversário da NATO. O presidente irá a Baden-Baden, na Alemanha, e no dia (...)"

na coluna “Ver Claro”, do “Correio da Manhã”

Um dos meus cafés preferidos, o "Café Portugal" (os outros direi um dia destes quais são) serviu aqui à mesa do Claro, estilo rodada por conta da casa, o "Prémio Dardos"... Obrigados, Rui, aqui ficamos sensibilizados e obrigados. Mas meteste-nos num belo sarilho que é este de, segundo as regras do  "Premios Dardos", estarmos obrigados a indicar um número determinado (15) de blogs que consideramos merecerem o prémio... E isto é mesmo um belo sarilho, o do problema das escolhas. Com os riscos de me enganar, de esquecer quem não merece ser esquecido, de acertar ao lado, etc. etc., aqui me arrisco à lista:

·         Lex Appeal

·         Inteligência Competitiva

·         Capital Intelectual

·         Janela na Web

·         Consumering

·         A Vida das Coisas...

·         Berra-Boi

·         Carlos Enes

·         Macroscópio

·         Margens de Erro

·         O jumento

·         Pitigrili de Luanda

·         Sobre o tempo que passa

·         Terra do Sol

·         Verdade ou Consequência

""OOs "Prémios Dardos", dizem-nos,  destinam-se a "distinguir os blogues que contribuem de forma significativa para o enriquecimento da cultura virtual, através da veiculação de valores culturais, éticos, literários, pessoais... premiando os blogueiros que demonstram a sua criatividade através do pensamento vivo e através das formas de comunicação que utilizam para o expressar. Estes selos, foram criados com a intenção de promover o salutar convívio entre os bloggers e como forma de demonstrar carinho e, reconhecimento por um trabalho, que agregue valor à Web."

Quem recebe o “Prémio Dardos” (e o aceita) deve:

1. Exibir a respectiva marca /imagem;
2. Linkar o blog através do qual recebeu o prémio;
3. Escolher quinze (15) outros blogs aos quais atribuirá o "Prémio Dardos".

A DEGRADAÇÃO DO ENSINO

“É preciso investir na educação dos filhos como fez a avó de Obama: meteu-o numa escola privada cara...”

João Vaz, jornalista, no CM 14.11.08

Desgraçadamente, em Portugal, se o ensino público é uma catástrofe, uma trituradora de inteligências, uma máquina infernal de idiotizar miúdos, a verdade é que a escola privada é outra desgraça, com as notáveis excepções do liceu francês e dos colégios americano, inglês e alemão (e pouco, pouquíssimo, mais).

A avó de Obama, hoje em Portugal, teria que ver bem, muito bem, onde colocar o puto... Ou o resultado seria a vitória de McCain!

COLAPSO...

John Robb, quando já estamos em pleno no processo de mudança do modelo global, não parece estar optimista... O especialista, que anima o “Global Guerrillas”  e tem desenvolvido o conceito de “comunidades resilientes”, destaca:  

Five Stages of Collapse

by John Robb in “Global Guerrillas”

Dmitry Orlov (author of the excellent book, Reinventing Collapse) has an excellent presentation he calls the Five Stages of Collapse -- a pattern of collapse seen in Russia and Eastern Europe during the 90's (on Google Docs, click to view in new window).

These stages are:

·         Financial Collapse. Already in motion.

·         Commercial Collapse. Just started.

·         Political Collapse (a loss of faith in ideology). First part is over (the recent election in the US). Second part is going to be nasty.

·         Social Collapse. Potentially the end state or stable equilibrium point for most of the world. Everyone against everyone with points awarded by the global marketplace.

·         Cultural Collapse. Full meltdown. Global market breaks.

The collapse in the USSR/Eastern Europe ended due to connectivity to a large external environment, collectively the West, which provided stability and a route back from chaos.

We don't have an external environment to gain support from with our collapse. It's global.

Posted by John Robb on Monday, 10 November 2008 at 10:36 AM | Permalink | Comments (17) | TrackBack (0)

SOBRE AS ANÁLISES DE CEGOS…

“Conventional analysis suffers from a profound failure of imagination. It imagines passing clouds to be permanent and is blind to powerful, long-term shifts taking place in full view of the world.” —George Friedman

É difícil dizê-lo melhor… E muito conveniente não o esquecer! Não gosto de citações, são, por norma, um perigo e um logro e quem cita raramente sabe do que fala. Mas, por vezes, tropeçamos em pérolas raras, como esta de George Friedman, que não podem ficar ocultas e a que vale a pena dar a visibilidade possível. Sobretudo, nestes tempos de mudança radical em que as análises convencionais são, sistematicamente, desmentidas quase na hora e mostram uma incapacidade tal para integrar os factos que surgem como verdadeiramente ridículas.

In his long-awaited and provocative new book, George Friedman turns his eye on the future—offering a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century. He explains where and why future wars will erupt (and how they will be fought), which nations will gain and lose economic and political power, and how new technologies and cultural trends will alter the way we live in the new century.

The Next 100 Years draws on a fascinating exploration of history and geopolitical patterns dating back hundreds of years. Friedman shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium, at the dawn of a new era—with changes in store, including:

 

• The U.S.-Jihadist war will conclude—replaced by a second full-blown cold war with Russia.

• China will undergo a major extended internal crisis, and Mexico will emerge as an important world power.

• A new global war will unfold toward the middle of the century between the United States and an unexpected coalition from Eastern Europe, Eurasia, and the Far East; but armies will be much smaller and wars will be less deadly.

• Technology will focus on space—both for major military uses and for a dramatic new energy resource that will have radical environmental implications.

• The United States will experience a Golden Age in the second half of the century.

 

Written with the keen insight and thoughtful analysis that has made George Friedman a renowned expert in geopolitics and forecasting, The Next 100 Years presents a fascinating picture of what lies ahead.

 

For continual, updated analysis and supplemental material, go to www.Stratfor.com

A AMEAÇA DE GRAÇA...

Graça Machel diz, hoje nos jornais, que acha Obama uma espécie de novo Mandela... Bom, se ela não perdeu tempo a casar-se com o primeiro, o que acontecerá ao segundo...? A Michele que se ponha a pau...

Irrupção do Novo Modelo Global

Agora que se deu o colapso do sistema financeiro global e começa a surgir após o “15 de Setembro 2008” uma nova geoeconomia, agora que a economia real entra em profunda crise (restando saber se será ‘apenas’ uma recessão ou se cairemos numa provável depressão...), agora que o carrossel louco dos preços do petróleo fez surgir uma nova geopolítica (fez mesmo regressar em força a geopolítica de que era de bom tom e muito ‘pc’ ignorar a existência até este Verão...), agora que o carácter assimétrico da posição dos vários sectores da economia face à crise já não é disfarçável, agora que já possível ler sem óculos tudo isto (e até muito mais) de que aqui, no Claro, se tem falado desde há uns três anos, é talvez altura de assumir claramente que estamos a viver o desmoronar do velho modelo (saído da vitória americana na II G M) e o emergir de novo modelo global.

E, dias depois da vitória de Obama, já é possível perceber que a nova presidência americana se mostra pouco ou nada comprometida com os sectores mais ameaçados (condenados...) nesta crise e se propõe, sim, para reconstruir a economia americana, canalizar os recursos para segmentos e sectores onde a vitalidade se afirma... Forma decisiva de acelerar esta mudança de modelo global, já a partir do início de 2009.

Se definirmos o que se está a passar, toda esta profunda crise estrutural, como o emergir, a irrupção, do novo modelo global, teremos uma profícua grelha de leitura e entendimento do que se vai passando diariamente, da “espuma dos dias”, e ganharemos uma nova capacidade de descriptação dos factos e de estabelecimento dos seus significados.  Vale, assim, a pena recordar um post de 24 de Outubro do ano passado, publicado aqui no Claro, sobre:

Que significa “crise do modelo”?

Fala-se frequentemente de “crise estrutural” ou de “crise do modelo”. Face ao desmoronar de sectores inteiros da economia, antes prósperos, ou face ao aparecimento de disfunções em instituições-quadro ou mesmo em quadros jurídicos, ouve-se dizer que “o modelo entrou em crise”. Mas que significa isto? Quer dizer o aparecimento gradual mas firme de, pelo menos, três coisas:

- novas indústrias motoras,

- novo quadro de concorrência

- alteração profunda do estatuto da empresa

É o emergir e o afirmar de tudo isto que constrói um novo modelo económico global, indispensável para ultrapassar a "crise do modelo" ou "crise estrutural"... Até que anos ou décadas mais tarde surja nova "crise do modelo".

José Mateus Cavaco Silva at October 24, 2007 20:32 | link | comments
Tags: mudança do modelo global

O “COMPLEXO” VISTO DA... DIREITA!

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O monstro neo-corporativo e salazarento é cada vez mais difícil de ocultar e, portanto, toda a gente começa a semtir-se na obrigação de falar dele. Frequentemente, em perspectivas enviezadas e mais propícias à baralhação quando já não é possível simplesmente ocultar...) do à análise e esclarecimento...De tal modo assim é que mesmo na direita mais direitinha (ou direitona) se começa a ter que falar do “complexo neo-corporativo e salazarento”, esse monstro mal cheiroso que vindo do passado nos devora o presente e destrói o futuro.

Veja-se esta prosa de Miguel Mattos Chaves, Vogal da Comissão Política Nacional do CDS-PP, que conclui com um lapidar “os responsáveis objectivos da crise do sistema nacional financeiro, nacionais, são deixados fora de qualquer investigação credível e independente, e da consequente penalização. Por muito menos, Mário Conde de Espanha, está há oito anos preso. Por muito menos, os administradores da Enrom estão presos. Por algo parecido, o senhor Greenspam está a ser investigado pelo Senado norte-americano....”  O "complexo" é cada vez mais visível, a questão agora é como resolvê-lo. Ou seja, é uma questão de inteligência, decisão e liderança. Mas, enfim, o "monstro" até da comissão política do CDS já é visível, nem aí pode ser já escamoteado:

. 

“

(...) O país viu, no tempo do Prof. Cavaco Silva, abandonada a agricultura, as pescas, a defesa e a exploração do mar e seus recursos e viu a indústria enfraquecer. Isto é toda a produção de bens tangíveis foram descurados e trocada pelo sistema dos serviços, sobretudo os da área financeira. Estes últimos não reprodutores de bem-estar e sim alimentadores de especulações mais ou menos legítimas e criadores de uma artificialidade económica e financeira traduzida em balanços trabalhados que retractavam apenas habilidades de contabilização.

Nada se produziu de estrutural no país, desde então, a não ser algumas vias de comunicação, para captar votos e quietudes.

E a produção real, sustentáculo de uma economia saudável, foi decaindo a pouco e pouco. Por falta de uma estratégia para o país, por falta de apoios reais, por falta de actores económicos interessados em proporcionar o desenvolvimento sustentado de Portugal e dos portugueses.

Verdade ainda que, ao contrário das aparências e discursos oficiais, os instrumentos sérios e sólidos necessários ao incentivo, ao aparecimento de novos actores não foram criados de todo. Vagamente apareceram uns programas de formação de péssima qualidade, (no conteúdo e nos formadores), uns anúncios de capitais de risco e mais nada.

Os actores do sistema privado não ficaram isentos de culpas. Antes pelo contrário.

Uma nota apenas para desmontar esses pretensos capitais de risco: os actores do sistema financeiro português são avessos ao risco. Emprestam um milhão a quem tiver garantias reais de dois milhões. Não têm verdadeiramente em conta a qualidade do projecto, a sua viabilidade potencial, a capacidade dos seus proponentes. O risco a assumir dos capitais a emprestar resume-se á fatal pergunta: tem garantias reais?

Isto não é novo. Já em 1958 uma missão da OECE/OCDE, que veio a Portugal elaborar um estudo profundo sobre a Economia portuguesa, chefiada pelo senhor Melander (Presidente do Banco Central da Noruega) tinha alertado as autoridades portuguesas para o facto de os detentores do capital privado, em Portugal, serem avessos ao risco. Derivado dessas conclusões, criou-se um Banco público para contornar essa dificuldade: o Banco de Fomento Nacional vocacionado para o apoio real a novos projectos, sobretudo de índole privada.

Hoje, as coisas não mudaram; por aversão ao risco dos operadores privados e públicos, por falta de capacidade dos quadros que os gerem, por incompetência, por excesso de liberalismo e por causa da criação, e protecção dos poderes públicos, a uma filosofia económica de absoluta especulação, não há apoios sérios e reais a novos projectos produtivos.

E chegou-se a este ponto: desregulação real do sistema financeiro, desorientação estratégica do país. (...)

                                                                                ”

O PRIMEIRO PRESIDENTE

Wall Street s'enfonce, le marché craint le pire pour l'emploi La Bourse de New York a de nouveau chuté jeudi, les investisseurs craignant le pire à la veille de la publication des statistiques mensuelles de l'emploi aux Etats-Unis: le Dow Jones a perdu 4,85% et le Nasdaq 4,34%.     la suite

Le pétrole continue sa chute à New York et lorgne les 60 dollars Les prix du pétrole ont de nouveau fini sur une forte baisse jeudi à New York, après avoir déjà perdu cinq dollars la veille, reflet des inquiétudes des investisseurs sur l'état de la demande de pétrole alors que les signes de récession se multiplient.     la suite

Ex-Chantiers de l'Atlantique: l'Etat va acquérir 33,34% du capital L'Etat français va acquérir 33,34% des ex-Chantiers de l'Atlantique par une augmentation de capital de 110 millions d'euros, a annoncé jeudi soir la présidence française.     la suite

Les marchés replongent malgré une baisse des taux en Europe La crise s'est à nouveau brutalement imposée sur les marchés financiers qui ont dévissé jeudi, malgré une baisse des taux décidée par la BCE et la Banque d'Angleterre (BoE) pour tenter de ranimer une économie promise, selon le FMI, à une longue période de turbulence.     la suite

USA: la crise impose à Obama un choix crucial pour le secrétaire au Trésor Face à une crise d'une ampleur inédite, le futur président américain Barack Obama va rapidement devoir faire un choix crucial dans la désignation de son secrétaire au Trésor, devant trancher entre des candidats d'expérience ou des postulants incarnant le changement.     la suite

La Banque d'Angleterre sort l'artillerie lourde contre la récession La Banque d'Angleterre (BoE) a frappé fort jeudi en baissant d'un point et demi de pourcentage, à 3%, son taux d'intérêt directeur, le ramenant au plus bas depuis plus d'un demi-siècle, et prenant par surprise les économistes.     la suite

La Bourse de Paris a lâché 6,38%, la morosité économique reprend le dessus La Bourse de Paris a terminé sur une lourde chute jeudi, le CAC 40 lâchant 6,38% dans un marché rattrapé par les inquiétudes économiques et peu sensible aux fortes baisses de taux en zone euro et en Angleterre.     la suite

Le FMI annonce pour 2009 la 1ere récession dans les pays riches depuis 1945 Le Fonds monétaire international (FMI) entrevoit une récession dans les pays développés en 2009, avec une contraction de l'activité qui devrait atteindre 0,3% et serait la première depuis l'après-guerre, et plaide pour des plans de relance économique.     la suite

La crise économique éclipse l'effet Obama, les marchés dégringolent La crise s'est à nouveau brutalement imposée sur les marchés financiers qui ont dévissé jeudi, malgré une baisse des taux décidée par la BCE et la Banque d'Angleterre (BoE) pour tenter de ranimer une économie promise, selon le FMI, à une longue période de turbulence.Evénement     la suite

Airbus a enregistré 71 annulations de commandes en octobre Le constructeur européen Airbus (groupe EADS) a enregistré un total de 119 annulations de commandes depuis le début de l'année, dont 71 au seul mois d'octobre, selon son bilan commercial à fin octobre publié jeudi.     la suite

OBAMA: COMO SAIR DA CRISE?

Obama herda a pior situação económica desde a crise de 1929. Um défice orçamental de 500 mil milhões, taxa de desemprego crescente e uma economia já entrada em recessão (com a pergunta a ser se passará à depressão...). Face a este cenário negro, que se propõe Obama fazer? O L’Express dá algumas pistas...

Des grands travaux pour relancer l'emploi 

Barack Obama entend débloquer 50 milliards de dollars pour de grands travaux d'infrastructures (routes, ponts, système éducatif).

Il a promis par ailleurs un crédit d'impôt de 3.000 dollars pour chaque emploi créé aux Etats-Unis dans les deux ans à venir.

Il veut éliminer la taxation sur le capital pour les start-up et petites entreprises créatrices d'emploi. Il a également parlé de supprimer les réductions d'impôts pour les sociétés qui délocalisent.

Enfin, il a plaidé pour un deuxième plan de relance économique de 60 milliards de dollars, sans plus de précisions.

A long terme, il compte lancer un plan de 150 milliards de dollars sur dix ans pour favoriser les énergies renouvelables, ce qui pourra créer cinq millions d'emplois "bien payés et qui ne seront jamais délocalisés".

Continua Aqui

OBAMA OU A REABILITAÇÃO

E O TRIUNFO DA RETÓRICA...

 .

Não sei, claro, quem engendrou a candidatura de Obama, quem inventou e desenvolveu, nos últimos três ou quatro anos, aquela quase perfeita e sem falhas “agenda Obama” (se Robert Ludlum não tivesse já falecido, até se poderia pensar numa das suas astutas e implacáveis novelas de suspense...), mas de uma coisa não tenho dúvidas: Obama é a mais perfeita operação de perception’s management montada desde há muitos anos... Obama é a mais rápida, mais eficaz e mais barata das formas de recuperar a reputação americana, de refazer a, até ontem desgraçada, reputação dos EUA. Ou seja, Obama dá à América uma nova virgindade.

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Se alguém não conhecia nem entendia o conceito de softpower, agora ele entrou-lhe pela casa dentro... Única dúvida: a “agenda Obama”, que vem de 2005, é anterior à implosão geoeconómica do “15 de Setembro” (de 2008) e, portanto, anterior à nova conjuntura estratégica global. É de um tempo em que a recuperação da reputação americana era a grande prioridade, um tempo marcado, portanto, pelas necessidades e características próprias do softpower... Ora, com o “15 de Setembro”, entrámos numa nova conjuntura marcada por outras necessidades e outras características. Uma conjuntura que indicia ir colocar fortes problemas de hardpower. Neste novo cenário, claro, John McCain seria o homem próprio da conjuntura, tal como Obama era o da anterior... Será que, dada a vertigem dos tempos, os americanos elegeram, para os próximos quatro anos, o homem da conjuntura anterior? Seria de uma grande ironia... Mas Obama, que surpreendeu tudo até agora, pode também surpreender como homem de hardpower...

 .

A Stratfor analisa, entretanto, os desafios que se colocam ao novo presidente americano.

Obama’s Challenge

Barack Obama has been elected president of the United States by a large majority in the Electoral College. The Democrats have dramatically increased their control of Congress, increasing the number of seats they hold in the House of Representatives and moving close to the point where — with a few Republican defections — they can have veto-proof control of the Senate. Given the age of some Supreme Court justices, Obama might well have the opportunity to appoint at least one and possibly two new justices. He will begin as one of the most powerful presidents in a long while. Truly extraordinary were the celebrations held around the world upon Obama’s victory. They affirm the global expectations Obama has raised — and reveal that the United States must be more important to Europeans than the latter like to admit. (We can’t imagine late-night vigils in the United States over a French election.)

Obama is an extraordinary rhetorician, and as Aristotle pointed out, rhetoric is one of the foundations of political power. Rhetoric has raised him to the presidency, along with the tremendous unpopularity of his predecessor and a financial crisis that took a tied campaign and gave Obama a lead he carefully nurtured to victory. So, as with all politicians, his victory was a matter of rhetoric and, according to Machiavelli, luck. Obama had both, but now the question is whether he has Machiavelli’s virtue in full by possessing the ability to exercise power. This last element is what governing is about, and it is what will determine if his presidency succeeds.

Embedded in his tremendous victory is a single weakness: Obama won the popular vote by a fairly narrow margin, about 52 percent of the vote. That means that almost as many people voted against him as voted for him.

Obama’s Agenda vs. Expanding His Base

U.S. President George W. Bush demonstrated that the inability to understand the uses and limits of power can crush a presidency very quickly. The enormous enthusiasm of Obama’s followers could conceal how he — like Bush — is governing a deeply, and nearly evenly, divided country. Obama’s first test will be simple: Can he maintain the devotion of his followers while increasing his political base? Or will he believe, as Bush and Cheney did, that he can govern without concern for the other half of the country because he controls the presidency and Congress, as Bush and Cheney did in 2001? Presidents are elected by electoral votes, but they govern through public support.

Obama and his supporters will say there is no danger of a repeat of Bush — who believed he could carry out his agenda and build his political base at the same time, but couldn’t. Building a political base requires modifying one’s agenda. But when you start modifying your agenda, when you become pragmatic, you start to lose your supporters. If Obama had won with 60 percent of the popular vote, this would not be as pressing a question. But he barely won by more than Bush in 2004. Now, we will find out if Obama is as skillful a president as he was a candidate.

Obama will soon face the problem of beginning to disappoint people all over the world, a problem built into his job. The first disappointments will be minor. There are thousands of people hoping for appointments, some to Cabinet positions, others to the White House, others to federal agencies. Many will get something, but few will get as much as they hoped for. Some will feel betrayed and become bitter. During the transition process, the disappointed office seeker — an institution in American politics — will start leaking on background to whatever reporters are available. This will strike a small, discordant note; creating no serious problems, but serving as a harbinger of things to come.

Later, Obama will be sworn in. He will give a memorable, perhaps historic speech at his inauguration. There will be great expectations about him in the country and around the world. He will enjoy the traditional presidential honeymoon, during which all but his bitterest enemies will give him the benefit of the doubt. The press initially will adore him, but will begin writing stories about all the positions he hasn’t filled, the mistakes he made in the vetting process and so on. And then, sometime in March or April, things will get interesting.

Iran and a U.S. Withdrawal From Iraq

Obama has promised to withdraw U.S. forces from Iraq, where he does not intend to leave any residual force. If he follows that course, he will open the door for the Iranians. Iran’s primary national security interest is containing or dominating Iraq, with which Iran fought a long war. If the United States remains in Iraq, the Iranians will be forced to accept a neutral government in Iraq. A U.S. withdrawal will pave the way for the Iranians to use Iraqi proxies to create, at a minimum, an Iraqi government more heavily influenced by Iran.

Apart from upsetting Sunni and Kurdish allies of the United States in Iraq, the Iranian ascendancy in Iraq will disturb some major American allies — particularly the Saudis, who fear Iranian power. The United States can’t afford a scenario under which Iranian power is projected into the Saudi oil fields. While that might be an unlikely scenario, it carries catastrophic consequences. The Jordanians and possibly the Turks, also American allies, will pressure Obama not simply to withdraw. And, of course, the Israelis will want the United States to remain in place to block Iranian expansion. Resisting a coalition of Saudis and Israelis will not be easy.

This will be the point where Obama’s pledge to talk to the Iranians will become crucial. If he simply withdraws from Iraq without a solid understanding with Iran, the entire American coalition in the region will come apart. Obama has pledged to build coalitions, something that will be difficult in the Middle East if he withdraws from Iraq without ironclad Iranian guarantees. He therefore will talk to the Iranians. But what can Obama offer the Iranians that would induce them to forego their primary national security interest? It is difficult to imagine a U.S.-Iranian deal that is both mutually beneficial and enforceable.

Obama will then be forced to make a decision. He can withdraw from Iraq and suffer the geopolitical consequences while coming under fire from the substantial political right in the United States that he needs at least in part to bring into his coalition. Or, he can retain some force in Iraq, thereby disappointing his supporters. If he is clumsy, he could wind up under attack from the right for negotiating with the Iranians and from his own supporters for not withdrawing all U.S. forces from Iraq. His skills in foreign policy and domestic politics will be tested on this core question, and he undoubtedly will disappoint many.

The Afghan Dilemma

Obama will need to address Afghanistan next. He has said that this is the real war, and that he will ask U.S. allies to join him in the effort. This means he will go to the Europeans and NATO, as he has said he will do. The Europeans are delighted with Obama’s victory because they feel Obama will consult them and stop making demands of them. But demands are precisely what he will bring the Europeans. In particular, he will want the Europeans to provide more forces for Afghanistan.

Many European countries will be inclined to provide some support, if for no other reason than to show that they are prepared to work with Obama. But European public opinion is not about to support a major deployment in Afghanistan, and the Europeans don’t have the force to deploy there anyway. In fact, as the global financial crisis begins to have a more dire impact in Europe than in the United States, many European countries are actively reducing their deployments in Afghanistan to save money. Expanding operations is the last thing on European minds.

Obama’s Afghan solution of building a coalition centered on the Europeans will thus meet a divided Europe with little inclination to send troops and with few troops to send in any event. That will force him into a confrontation with the Europeans in spring 2009, and then into a decision. The United States and its allies collectively lack the force to stabilize Afghanistan and defeat the Taliban. They certainly lack the force to make a significant move into Pakistan — something Obama has floated on several occasions that might be a good idea if force were in fact available.

He will have to make a hard decision on Afghanistan. Obama can continue the war as it is currently being fought, without hope of anything but a long holding action, but this risks defining his presidency around a hopeless war. He can choose to withdraw, in effect reinstating the Taliban, going back on his commitment and drawing heavy fire from the right. Or he can do what we have suggested is the inevitable outcome, namely, negotiate — and reach a political accord — with the Taliban. Unlike Bush, however, withdrawal or negotiation with the Taliban will increase the pressure on Obama from the right. And if this is coupled with a decision to delay withdrawal from Iraq, Obama’s own supporters will become restive. His 52 percent Election Day support could deteriorate with remarkable speed.

The Russian Question

At the same time, Obama will face the Russian question. The morning after Obama’s election, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev announced that Russia was deploying missiles in its European exclave of Kaliningrad in response to the U.S. deployment of ballistic missile defense systems in Poland. Obama opposed the Russians on their August intervention in Georgia, but he has never enunciated a clear Russia policy. We expect Ukraine will have shifted its political alignment toward Russia, and Moscow will be rapidly moving to create a sphere of influence before Obama can bring his attention — and U.S. power — to bear.

Obama will again turn to the Europeans to create a coalition to resist the Russians. But the Europeans will again be divided. The Germans can’t afford to alienate the Russians because of German energy dependence on Russia and because Germany does not want to fight another Cold War. The British and French may be more inclined to address the question, but certainly not to the point of resurrecting NATO as a major military force. The Russians will be prepared to talk, and will want to talk a great deal, all the while pursuing their own national interest of increasing their power in what they call their “near abroad.”

Obama will have many options on domestic policy given his majorities in Congress. But his Achilles’ heel, as it was for Bush and for many presidents, will be foreign policy. He has made what appear to be three guarantees. First, he will withdraw from Iraq. Second, he will focus on Afghanistan. Third, he will oppose Russian expansionism. To deliver on the first promise, he must deal with the Iranians. To deliver on the second, he must deal with the Taliban. To deliver on the third, he must deal with the Europeans.

Global Finance and the European Problem

The Europeans will pose another critical problem, as they want a second Bretton Woods agreement. Some European states appear to desire a set of international regulations for the financial system. There are three problems with this.

First, unless Obama wants to change course dramatically, the U.S. and European positions differ over the degree to which governments will regulate interbank transactions. The Europeans want much more intrusion than the Americans. They are far less averse to direct government controls than the Americans have been. Obama has the power to shift American policy, but doing that will make it harder to expand his base.

Second, the creation of an international regulatory body that has authority over American banks would create a system where U.S. financial management was subordinated to European financial management.

And third, the Europeans themselves have no common understanding of things. Obama could thus quickly be drawn into complex EU policy issues that could tie his hands in the United States. These could quickly turn into painful negotiations, in which Obama’s allure to the Europeans will evaporate.

One of the foundations of Obama’s foreign policy — and one of the reasons the Europeans have celebrated his election — was the perception that Obama is prepared to work closely with the Europeans. He is in fact prepared to do so, but his problem will be the same one Bush had: The Europeans are in no position to give the things that Obama will need from them — namely, troops, a revived NATO to confront the Russians and a global financial system that doesn’t subordinate American financial authority to an international bureaucracy.

The Hard Road Ahead

Like any politician, Obama will face the challenge of having made a set of promises that are not mutually supportive. Much of his challenge boils down to problems that he needs to solve and that he wants European help on, but the Europeans are not prepared to provide the type and amount of help he needs. This, plus the fact that a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq requires an agreement with Iran — something hard to imagine without a continued U.S. presence in Iraq — gives Obama a difficult road to move on.

As with all American presidents (who face midterm elections with astonishing speed), Obama’s foreign policy moves will be framed by his political support. Institutionally, he will be powerful. In terms of popular support, he begins knowing that almost half the country voted against him, and that he must increase his base. He must exploit the honeymoon period, when his support will expand, to bring another 5 percent or 10 percent of the public into his coalition. These people voted against him; now he needs to convince them to support him. But these are precisely the people who would regard talks with the Taliban or Iran with deep distrust. And if negotiations with the Iranians cause him to keep forces in Iraq, he will alienate his base without necessarily winning over his opponents.

And there is always the unknown. There could be a terrorist attack, the Russians could start pressuring the Baltic states, the Mexican situation could deteriorate. The unknown by definition cannot be anticipated. And many foreign leaders know it takes an administration months to settle in, something some will try to take advantage of. On top of that, there is now nearly a three-month window in which the old president is not yet out and the new president not yet in.

Obama must deal with extraordinarily difficult foreign policy issues in the context of an alliance failing not because of rough behavior among friends but because the allies’ interests have diverged. He must deal with this in the context of foreign policy positions difficult to sustain and reconcile, all against the backdrop of almost half an electorate that voted against him versus supporters who have enormous hopes vested in him. Obama knows all of this, of course, as he indicated in his victory speech.

We will now find out if Obama understands the exercise of political power as well as he understands the pursuit of that power. You really can’t know that until after the fact. There is no reason to think he can’t finesse these problems. Doing so will take cunning, trickery and the ability to make his supporters forget the promises he made while keeping their support. It will also require the ability to make some of his opponents embrace him despite the path he will have to take. In other words, he will have to be cunning and ruthless without appearing to be cunning and ruthless. That’s what successful presidents do.

In the meantime, he should enjoy the transition. It’s frequently the best part of a presidency.

E A ECONOMIA NO 'DAY AFTER'....?

Wall Street chute, la réalité économique rattrape l'élection La Bourse de New York a plongé mercredi, alors que de nouveaux indicateurs ont rappelé que le président fraîchement élu Barack Obama allait devoir faire face à une situation économique très dégradée aux Etats-Unis: le Dow Jones a lâché 5,05% et le Nasdaq 5,53%.     la suite

Etats-Unis: la situation de l'emploi donne une mesure du défi qui attend Obama La première statistique de l'ère Obama montre l'ampleur du défi que va devoir affronter le futur président américain: le secteur privé a détruit 157.000 emplois nets en octobre, bien plus que ne le craignaient les économistes, déjà pourtant bien pessimistes.     la suite

Refonte du système financier et libre-échange: deux défis pour Obama La refonte du système financier international sera l'un des grands chantiers auxquels devra s'atteler le président élu américain, Barack Obama, alors que le monde espère une attitude plus coopérative des Etats-Unis à l'heure de la plus grave crise économique depuis 1929.     la suite

Crise financière: Obama et les démocrates attendus au tournant Barack Obama et la majorité démocrate renforcée au Congrès n'ont pas d'autre choix que de réussir un sans-faute face à la crise financière, sous peine d'être sanctionnés dans un pays historiquement peu sensible aux idées de gauche.     la suite

Le dollar en hausse face à l'euro après la désignation de Barack Obama Le dollar s'affichait en hausse face à l'euro mercredi en milieu d'échanges européens, après une chute historique la veille, le pessimisme reprenant le dessus après la victoire du démocrate Barack Obama à l'élection présidentielle américaine.     la suite

VIOLAÇÕES E OUTRAS SELVAJARIAS

Há coisas que dão realmente volta ao estômago e que é impossível calar. Há selvajarias que nada justifica. Como esta, preparada com todo o cuidado como mostra o facto de "cameras were banned from the public stoning". Só um 'detalhe' mais: a sacrificada tinha 13 anos...

“Nothing could be a more stark reminder than the story of the young Somali woman who was stoned to death for adultery after reporting to authorities that she had been raped.

Amnesty International reported that partway through the stoning nurses checked whether Aisha was still alive. They pulled her body out of the ground to ascertain she was still breathing before the stoning continued.

A Unicef statement said: ‘She sought protection from the authorities, who then accused her of adultery and sentenced her to death. ‘A child was victimised twice – first by the perpetrators of the rape and then by those responsible for administering justice’… “  in Douglas Farah

An armed soldier guards a crowd in Kismayo, Somalia, which is currently ruled by an Islamist militia (file picture). Amnesty International has said that a 13-year-old girl, who had been raped, was stoned to death there

O GRANDE BUSINESS DE BOND

A coisa nem é muito secreta mas é bem eficaz, funciona muito bem e alcança e ultrapassa mesmo os objectivos... E com muito charme. Bond, James Bond, é uma das melhores máquinas de marketing e comunicação jamais inventadas, como bem mostram estes 'files' do agente secreto de Sua Majestade A Gestão das Percepções que o Claro divulga:

James Bond: au service secret de ses intérêts

Son personnage séduit les spectateurs et son image attire les partenaires. L'agent secret le plus célèbre du monde est une véritable machine à cash pour ses créateurs. Les fans se ruent dans les cinémas à chaque épisode, les entreprises se pressent pour y placer leur marque et les produits dérivés sont toujours plus nombreux. Sans conteste, James Bond fait vendre. A l'occasion de la sortie le 31 octobre du prochain opus, "Quantum of solace", découvrez qui profite de la manne 007. Lire 

Barack Abana a América

e em Todo o Mundo a Barraca Obama

Président Obama

Bien sûr, la nuit fut historique. L'Amérique avait besoin de retrouver confiance par une action extraordinaire qui est aussi une condition de la restauration de son leadership mondial. Elle avait besoin de tourner radicalement la page "W". Pour cela, l'élection d'Obama est un symbole d'une portée incomparable et l'on ne peut que s'en réjouir. A l'annonce des résultats, en Arizona John McCain a prononcé un discours remarquable qui a conforté le message central d'Obama, celle de l'unité et du rassemblement de tous les Américains. Espoir et changement, c'est un peu Kennedy et Reagan à la fois.

Il convient cependant de noter qu'au vote populaire, si la victoire est très nette, et malgré une participation très élevée, on ne peut parler de raz-de-marée. C'est évidemment le cas pour les grands électeurs avec 350 voix, mais l'Amérique reste à peu près divisée en deux. Sans refaire l'élection, la crise a beaucoup servi cette victoire démocrate. Sans elle, McCain pourrait aujourd'hui être le successeur d'un président républicain... Il est vrai qu'au-delà de la crise, le rejet de Bush et de républicains est tel que le poids à porter était spécialement lourd. En quelque sorte, la crise a fait le reste.

Quant à l'avenir? Obama dirigera comme McCain en avait aussi eu la volonté, sans esprit de parti. Des républicains modérés au gouvernement? Très probablement, y compris le maintien possible de Gates à la Défense.

Face au Congrès démocrate, il faudra aussi composer, comme le veut le système de la séparation des pouvoirs. Outre les contraintes budgétaires, les desiderata de courants ou de personnalités démocrates au Congrès devront donc être ménagées. Il est peu probable qu'Obama puisse avoir les moyens de recréer le lien social américain comme il le souhaite en revigorant la classe moyenne. Sa marge de manoeuvre sera serrée.

Quant au plan international, aucune option ne sera écartée. L'Europe n'est pas une prorité et si les Européens ne se montrent pas des partenaires crédibles, l'Amérique n'hésitera pas à suivre sa route seule. Se rappeler Bill Clinton...

Avec plus de distance, il faut se ranger à l'idée que l'Amérique est capable d'extraordinaires rebondissements. J'ai parlé de réinvention américaine. Avec cette élection, l'Amérique se réinvente, balayant d'un coup le lourd passif laissé par "W" pour son image dans le monde. Ira-t-elle au bout de cette réinvention par la refondation d'un contrat social comme les Roosevelt surent le proposer? Nous avons quatre ans pour voir.

0 commentaire   Mots-clés : John McCain, Obama

La victoire de Barack Obama n'est pas un raz-de-marée

- Certains ont cru jusqu’à la dernière minute à une victoire à l’arraché de John McCain, mais finalement Barack Obama décroche une victoire assez tranchée. Comment l’expliquez-vous ?

- On peut parler d’une victoire nette, mais ce n’est pas un raz-de-marée. Sur le plan des grands électeurs, c’est un succès. Mais sur le plan national, cela représente 52 % des voix. Sans la crise économique, McCain aurait eu plus de chances de l’emporter.

- Peut-on quand même dire que Barack Obama aura les mains libres pour gouverner?

- Le Congrès ne sera pas à sa botte. Traditionnellement, il reste indépendant du Président. Les républicains sont plus habitués à manœuvrer, Obama devra faire preuve de la même dextérité avec la majorité démocrate. Sa volonté de changement sera aussi confrontée à la rigueur budgétaire. Et s’il bénéficie d’un capital politique important, sur le plan militaire par exemple, sa marge de manœuvre sera limitée.

- Que va changer son élection sur le plan international?

- Au départ, il va privilégier des objectifs réalistes de coopération et la diplomatie pour rétablir la crédibilité des États-Unis dans le monde. Mais il n’hésitera pas à mener sa politique seule, s’il n’y a pas d’alternative. Il pourrait aussi faire usage de la force, s’il l’estime nécessaire, comme au Pakistan.
Concernant la Russie, son discours est plus prometteur que celui du ticket républicain. Il veut préserver l’Amérique d’une approche de confrontation, contrairement à McCain. D’autant plus que la Russie et les États-Unis se rejoignent sur des sujets tels que l’Iran. Les prémices sont positives, on verra bien ce qu’il en sera.

- Quelle est sa décision la plus attendue?

- La préoccupation majeure des Américains, c’est l’économie. Ces premières actions devraient concerner la fluidité du système de crédits, contenue dans le plan Paulson qu’il soutient. Il ne faut pas non plus oublier qu’il reste encore trois mois d’administration Bush. Par obligation morale et politique, ils vont le tenir au courant, mais ils décident encore.

Interview pour 20minutes.

Propos recueillis par Vincent Colas

Na AFP:

Election d'Obama: les déclarations d'une journée historique

Sarah Palin refuse d'endosser la responsabilité de la défaite de McCain Sarah Palin a refusé d'endosser la responsabilité de la défaite de son colistier John McCain face à Barack Obama dans l'élection présidentielle américaine, et appelé les Américains à se rassembler, dans des déclarations diffusées par CNN mercredi.     la suite Bush est à l'heure des dernières grandes décisions Le président sortant George W. Bush a un peu plus de deux mois pour lancer une réforme du système financier mondial, régler les conditions de la présence militaire américaine en Irak et, qui sait, capturer Oussama Ben Laden.     la suite Les démocrates du Congrès bientôt devant le défi de la crise Le nouveau Congrès américain et sa majorité démocrate renforcée par les élections, dont les tout derniers résultats étaient toujours attendus mercredi, a déjà un agenda chargé et une priorité absolue: la crise économique.     la suite Obama pourrait être sensible à la tentation protectionniste L'élection de Barack Obama à la Maison Blanche et le renforcement de la majorité démocrate au Congrès pourraient accroître la tentation protectionniste aux Etats-Unis, surtout au moment où l'économie en récession perd de nombreux emplois.     la suite Le vote Obama: une coalition sans précédent Le président élu Barack Obama a réussi à rassembler sur son nom une coalition qu'aucun autre candidat démocrate avant lui n'avait réussi à bâtir en recueillant la majorité des suffrages des femmes, des indépendants, des moins de 65 ans et des minorités.     la suite Election Obama: les adversaires des Etats-Unis espèrent aussi un changement Plusieurs pays qui entretiennent des relations difficiles avec Washington, notamment l'Iran, la Syrie et le Venezuela, ont salué mercredi l'élection du démocrate Barack Obama, en espérant un "changement" dans la politique étrangère des Etats-Unis, et plus de dialogue.     la suite Les Cubains espèrent qu'Obama porte un coup au "plus vieil embargo du monde" Simples travailleurs cubains, dissidents ou hommes d'affaires américains commerçant avec Cuba, ils ont tous un même espoir, que le nouveau président élu américain Barack Obama en finisse ou du moins assouplisse le "plus vieil embargo du monde" contre l'île communiste.     la suite Election d'Obama: les déclarations d'une journée historique Après l'élection historique de Barack Obama à la présidence des Etats-Unis voici quelques unes des déclarations les plus fortes recueillies mercredi par l'AFP à travers le monde:     la suite Obama a réinventé la politique américaine Barack Obama a fait exploser les barrières du racisme, de la logique et des prévisions dans sa quête héroïque de la Maison Blanche, en redéfinissant tant la carte électorale que la forme même d'une élection présidentielle aux Etats-Unis.     la suite Obama à la Maison Blanche: du rêve et une leçon de démocratie pour l'Afrique La victoire écrasante de Barack Obama, premier afro-américain à entrer à la Maison Blanche, ne changera peut-être pas directement le quotidien concret de l'Afrique, mais elle a suscité mercredi des réactions de fierté de beaucoup de grands responsables du continent noir.     la suite Victoire d'Obama: une élection saluée par la presse mondiale Les journaux du monde entier ont salué mercredi à l'unisson l'élection "historique" de Barack Obama à la Maison Blanche, estimant qu'elle allait non seulement transformer la face des Etats-Unis mais également la planète.     la suite Obama pourrait attendre quelques mois avant de s'intéresser au Proche-Orient Le président élu américain Barack Obama, qui a fait de la lutte contre Al-Qaïda en Afghanistan et du retrait d'Irak ses priorités, risque d'attendre quelques mois avant de se pencher sérieusement sur les négociations de paix israélo-palestiniennes, selon les analystes.     la suite Les pays du Moyen-Orient veulent coopérer avec Barack Obama Hormis l'Iran, toujours silencieux, plusieurs pays du Moyen-Orient ont exprimé mercredi leur volonté de coopérer avec Barack Obama, certains voulant voir dans l'élection du candidat démocrate à la présidence des Etats-Unis l'opportunité d'un changement de cap à Washington.     la suite Brown félicite Obama pour sa victoire et salue ses "valeurs progressistes" Le Premier ministre britannique Gordon Brown a félicité mercredi Barack Obama pour son élection à la présidence américaine, saluant les "valeurs progressistes et la vision pour l'avenir" de ce "véritable ami du Royaume-Uni".     la suite Victoire d'Obama: l'Amérique latine espère améliorer ses relations avec les Etats-Unis L'Amérique latine, qui a souvent eu des relations conflictuelles avec les Etats-Unis sous l'ère Bush, s'est félicitée mercredi de l'élection de Barack Obama à la Maison Blanche, en espérant une révision de la politique américaine vis-à-vis de Cuba et du Venezuela.     la suite Portées par l'élection d'Obama, les minorités pressent la France de leur faire plus de place Fortes de la victoire de Barack Obama, les minorités visibles pressent l'Etat de réinsuffler à "la patrie des droits de l'homme" son énergie originelle en s'ouvrant davantage à la diversité de la société.     la suite Japon: la ville d'Obama en délire après la victoire de son fils adoptif ( contient une vidéo ) La petite ville japonaise d'Obama a fêté mercredi dans la liesse la victoire de son fils adoptif, Barack Obama, en chantant et en dansant la hula, la danse traditionnelle de Hawaï où est né le nouveau président américain.     la suite Les résultats de la présidentielle Etat par Etat Voici une totalisation des résultats de l'élection présidentielle américaine à partir des estimations diffusées par les télévisions.     la suite Le rôle des "Premières dames" des Etats-Unis Non rémunéré et ne s'accompagnant d'aucune responsabilité officielle, le rôle de l'épouse du président des Etats-Unis ne connaît pourtant pratiquement aucune limite: la "Première dame" a l'oreille du président et peut exercer une influence sur les décisions politiques.     la suite Les résultats de la présidentielle Etat par Etat Voici une totalisation des résultats de l'élection présidentielle américaine à partir des estimations diffusées par les télévisions.     la suite En Irak, les soldats américains font pâle figure après l'élection d'Obama Quand la chaîne CNN annonce mercredi que la Pennsylvanie est attribuée à Barack Obama, un soldat américain lance un "c'est plié" à ses camarades dépités. Autour, des militaires noirs américains sourient mais n'en rajoutent pas.     la suite A Jakarta, l'immense fierté des anciens copains de "Barry" Obama "Nous sommes si fiers de lui!": 40 ans après avoir essuyé les mêmes bancs d'école, les anciens camarades de Barack Obama en Indonésie ont salué la victoire de "Barry", qui leur avait annoncé qu'il deviendrait un jour président des Etats-Unis.     la suite Les principaux points du premier discours d'Obama après son élection Voici les principaux points du premier discours de Barack Obama en tant que président élu des Etats-Unis, devant une foule de partisans dans son fief de Chicago (Illinois, nord).     la suite John McCain: le héros du Vietnam n'a pas su conquérir l'Amérique John McCain, qui a largement axé sa campagne sur son patriotisme forgé dans les geôles nord-vietnamiennes, n'a pas su conquérir l'Amérique après huit années d'une administration républicaine rejetée mardi par les électeurs.     la suite Election présidentielle américaine: les résultats Etat par Etat Voici une totalisation des résultats de l'élection présidentielle américaine à partir des estimations diffusées par les télévisions.     la suite L'administration Obama pourrait avoir un air de déjà vu chez Clinton Barack Obama, élu mardi président des Etats-Unis, pourrait puiser les principaux noms de sa future administration parmi ses conseillers de campagne ainsi que chez d'anciens membres du cabinet de Bill Clinton, le précédent président démocrate.     la suite Victoire écrasante de Barack Obama, premier président noir des Etats-Unis ( contient une vidéo ) Le démocrate Barack Obama a remporté mardi une victoire historique et écrasante sur son adversaire républicain John McCain, devenant, à seulement 47 ans, le premier Noir élu président des Etats-Unis.     la suite Irak, processus de paix, Iran: les grands chantiers d'Obama au Moyen-Orient George Bush avait promis la liberté pour le "Grand Moyen-Orient". Son successeur, le démocrate Barack Obama, hérite d'un chantier aussi vaste que complexe avec un Irak en guerre, un processus de paix israélo-palestinien au point mort et un Iran en pleine nucléarisation.     la suite Obama, une "chance de renouveau" pour les relations russo-américaines L'élection du démocrate Barack Obama à la Maison Blanche offre une "chance de renouveau" pour les relations russo-américaines, qui avaient retrouvé des airs de guerre froide sous la présidence de George W. Bush, estiment des experts russes.     la suite Les principaux points du programme du démocrate Barack Obama Voici les principaux points du programme de Barack Obama, qui prendra le 20 janvier ses fonctions de président des Etats-Unis. Il devra s'atteler à une série de difficultés économiques d'une ampleur sans précédent depuis la grande crise de 1929 alors que le pays se trouve au bord de la récession.     la suite De l'esclavage à la Maison Blanche: l'émancipation des Noirs américains De l'arrivée en 1619 des premiers esclaves africains sur les côtes de la colonie britannique de Virginie à l'élection de Barack Obama à la Maison Blanche, voici les grandes dates de l'émancipation des Noirs américains et de leur lutte pour l'égalité.     la suite Michelle Obama, la première "First Lady" noire va entrer à la Maison Blanche "Je suis une anomalie statistique. Une fille noire, élevée dans le South Side de Chicago... Je ne devrais absolument pas être là", dit Michelle Obama, qui va devenir la première First Lady noire après la victoire de son mari Barack, élu mardi président des Etats-Unis.     la suite Barack Obama taxera les plus riches pour favoriser tous les autres Le démocrate Barack Obama, vainqueur mardi de l'élection présidentielle aux Etats-Unis, a prévu de taxer les plus riches pour venir en aide à la classe moyenne et aux petites entreprises, dans un pays au bord de la récession.     la suite La nouvelle diplomatie promise par Obama confrontée à de redoutables défis Barack Obama devra s'attaquer dès janvier sur la scène internationale à de redoutables défis qui risquent de limiter les changements que le futur président a promis en matière diplomatique.     la suite Victoire d'Obama, premier président noir des Etats-Unis Le démocrate Barack Obama a remporté mardi une victoire historique, devenant le premier Noir élu président des Etats-Unis.     la suite Musique country, anxiété et résignation au QG républicain L'atmosphère était calme, sur fond de musique country, mardi soir à la soirée électorale de John McCain alors que les premiers résultats donnaient une avance au candidat démocrate Barack Obama à l'élection présidentielle.     la suite La liesse s'empare du parc de Chicago d'où Obama doit parler La liesse s'est emparée mardi soir des milliers de partisans de Barack Obama rassemblés dans un parc de Chicago (Illinois, nord), au fur et à mesure de l'arrivée de résultats favorables à celui qui pourrait devenir le premier président noir des Etats-Unis.     la suite