PSD: PULSÃO SUÍCIDA

A Ucrânia Deve Entrar na NATO... Já!

Totalmente de acordo com o Macro. E voilà porquê:

SÃO EXACTAMENTE

193 CAPELÃES A MAIS

Fernanda Câncio

jornalista
fernanda.m.cancio@dn.pt

Há 123 capelães católicos integrados nos quadros do Ministério da Saúde, com salários que variam entre 986 e 1474 e pelo menos mais 70 sacerdotes da mesma confissão com vínculo contratual com o Estado, no Ministério da Defesa (onde existe até um bispo das Forças Armadas, com patente de major-general, nomeado pelo papa e só por ele podendo ser exonerado), da Justiça (nas prisões) e da Administração Interna (a celebrar missa na PSP e GNR).

A existência destas ditas capelanias é ancorada legalmente em diplomas governamentais dos anos oitenta. Estes diplomas - que vários juristas consideram ferir o princípio de separação entre Estado e confissões religiosas consagrado na Constituição desde 1976 - invocam a Concordata de 1940 celebrada entre Salazar e o Vaticano, entretanto revogada por um novo acordo, assinado em 2004. Este estabelece apenas a necessidade de o Estado prover à assistência religiosa nas estruturas ditas de segregação, enquanto a lei da liberdade religiosa, de 2001, consagra a igualdade para todas as confissões em termos de assistência religiosa neste tipo de estruturas. Ainda assim a situação das capelanias permanece, em 2007, exactamente como era há vinte anos (e antes). Só os crentes católicos têm direito a assistência religiosa permanente e só os sacerdotes católicos gozam de acesso directo e universal - ou seja, a todos os internados, a qualquer hora, seja qual for o seu clube espiritual - e são pagos por esse serviço. Os religiosos de outros cultos (apetece dizer "não oficiais") funcionam em regime de voluntariado e mediante autorização caso a caso, não existindo qualquer regulamentação que lhes garanta o acesso ou as condições em que é facultado. Estão dependentes dos humores dos porteiros, das direcções e até dos capelães, e não raro são impedidos de entrar,

Há dois anos, o actual Governo anunciou a sua intenção de rever a situação e a constituição de um grupo interministerial, do qual nunca mais houve notícia. Sabe-se há meses que o Ministério da Saúde anda a preparar um diploma próprio, do qual não existirá ainda versão definitiva. Do que dele transpirou, exige que os pacientes à entrada do internamento registem a sua vontade de ter ou não assistência religiosa, restringindo o contacto dos ministros das várias confissões aos que o solicitaram. Uma regra que, parece, não agrada à Igreja Católica, que chama "ridícula", "inaceitável" e "inconcebível" à proposta. É compreensível. É aliás bom sinal. Quem tem um monopólio detesta perdê-lo. O que decerto não se poderá compreender é que, em 2007, um governo socialista de um Estado constitucionalmente laico não faça o que tem a fazer - e que há muito já devia ter sido feito.| "

PRISÃO CHINESA É FÁBRICA

BONECOS E MEDICAMENTOS

ver as Imagens

 Via Jumento

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Parece impossível mas é mesmo verdade: um dos melhores ministros deste Governo tem a pior comunicação de todo o Governo.... Resultado: por mais que a senhora se esforce (e sabe e esforça-se muito) está quase sempre a descer. Vidé, por exemplo, como João Garcia a costuma classificar no Expresso e como é quase sempre notícia pelas más razões, que chegam mesmo à contratação em termos legais bastante duvidosos de figurantes para fazer de alunos em cerimónias oficiais com a presença do próprio primeiro-ministro... Claro que a senhora nada tem que ver com isso nem o sabia, mas é ela que apanha com os disparates (uns simplesmente idiotas e outros salioamente arrogantes) da sua (in)comunicação. Pobre Senhora... quando descobrirá ela que nada do que faz terá a importância devida se a comunicação não estiver à altura? E que, portanto, ela saírá sempre, será sempre vista e apercebida, à altura da comunicação que tiver? E que agora tem uma comunicação (que não sei quem a constitui nem quem a dirige) amadora, saloia e arrogante, daquela arrogância da ignorância... Coitada!

Stratfor Podcasts

Climate Change

Sep 27, 2007

Putin Names New Cabinet

Sep 26, 2007

Barbaric crackdown against women in Iran...

ou o ódio dos esbirros de Ahmedinejad às mulheres

(as fotos captadas clandestinamente são divuldas pelo site de Amir Normandi, fotógrafa iraniana exilada no Ocidente e que centra a sua acção na defesa dos Direitos Humanos e, particularmente, de quem no Irão não tem direitos alguns - as mulheres.

No veil is required
Photo essay: A multi-media presentation  Amir Normandi

Corrupção: acusados

dois militares da Armada

O Ministério Público acusou dois militares da Marinha – um oficial e um sargento – e três civis por crimes de corrupção, branqueamento de capitais e ... " Continua Aqui

Afinal, não havia só "fumos", havia também fogo... Parabéns ao Correio da Manhã que, há mais de um ano, levantou a questão em páginas com a assinatura de Sérgio Azenha. É mais do que tempo de acabar com os velhos lobbys da cultura salazarenta que obrigam as aquisições na Defesa à lógica das "comissões" de compras chave-na-mão ao estrangeiro... E passar a reger as aquisições necessárias pela lógica da defesa da indústria e economia portuguesas e pelo seu desenvolvimento, através de contratos industriais,

parcerias com fornecedores estrangeiros e integração de empresas portuguesas nos consórcios internacionais da indústria de defesa e outras contrapartidas. É mais do que tempo de pôr fim às práticas que têm permitido que as compras de material da Defesa sejam transformadas num circuito de alimentação do devorista "complexo neo-corporativo e salazarento".

Como aqui se escreveu, há cerca de um ano "a indústria da Defesa está, por definição, sempre à frente na investigação e desenvolvimento, tem regras que ao abrigo do carimbo "Defesa" permitem a um país alcançar objectivos económicos que de outro modo o "mercado" e as regras europeias lhe negariam e, com as suas tecnologias "dual-use", pode (e deve...) ser, para a economia de um pequeno estado atrasado, mais que um  choque, uma verdadeira terapia tecnológica...

Basta que assim o saiba entender a tríade estratégica constituída por Governo - Hierarquia das F.A. - Indústria da Defesa. O motor do desenvolvimento económico pode residir aqui se houver para tal a indispensável inteligência estratégica e económica. Ou seja, o que a indústria da defesa pode fazer é simplesmente um  rearmamento tecnológico da nossa economia!  Aos governos anteriores, por manifesta falta de inteligência estratégica e económica, nem sequer tal lhes aflorou os neurónios. E esta área económica serviu, sobretudo, para alguns fazerem negócios como lhes era possível...

Com José Sócrates e outros, como Luís Amado e Carlos Zorrinho, tudo parece estar a mudar. Para muito melhor! A inteligência estratégica e económica começa a ter entrada em alguns gabinetes governamentais e há a vontade política de aproveitar esta verdadeira mina tecnológica que é a indústria da Defesa e as suas vantagens económicas e estratégicas. Começa mesmo a desenhar-se uma estratégia para isso. Como se vê pelo título de primeira página do Correio da Manhã de hoje, os tempos estão mesmo a mudar!

Ainda bem... Trinta e dois anos depois do "25 de Abril", já não era sem tempo!"

chaChina à vista na Birmânia?

A brutalidade do veto chinês às sanções da ONU à ditadura da Birmânia veio mais uma vez mostrar a cara que a China se esforça por disfarçar com maquilhagens. As actividades de SIGINT que há anos os chineses basearam e desenvolvem na Birmânia não chegam para que qualquer país civilizado defenda aquela brutal, fechada e esquisofrénica ditadura... Revela-se neste apoio decisivo a natureza brutal do regime que praticou os massacres de Tian-An-Men e que procura, desde então, maquilhar-se para obter cara de gente, num processo que culmina nos Jogos Olimpicos Pequim 2008.

Na Birmânia são as actividades de Sigint, no Darfur dos massacres genocidas é o petróleo, no Irão mulocrático é também o petróleo, no Zimbabwe de Mugabe é... A verdade é que a China começa a aparecer  como o aliado preferencial e o suporte último mas decisivo das brutalidades deste mundo. Como se Pequim tivesse decidido estender a todo o planeta as práticas terroristas que são as suas desde 1949, com as prisões e as torturas em massa e com os assassínios  aos milhões (cálculos por baixo dão a ditadura comunista chinesa à frente de Estaline e de Hitler no campeonato macabro da liquidação de dezenas de milhões de pessoas...). Em todo o caso e com todos estes casos, Pequim tende a afirmar-se e a reclamar para si o papel de grande perturbador mundial que no século XX foi da Alemanha do Kaiser e, depois, da de Hitler e, seguidamente, da URSS de Estaline e seus igualmente indignos sucessores.

El Ejército mata a varios monjes

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Os jornalistas estrangeiros são personae non gratae na Birmânia, mas fontes locais conseguiram filmar clandestinamente os acontecimentos de rua e romper o bloqueio fazendo chegar as imagens e o som ao exterior. O L’Express, cujo lema há muito é “os meios de saber e a coragem de dizer”, pôs em linha  o filme  dos acontecimentos no passado dia 26.

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QUANDO O PROF. BROTAS

DÁ UMA AULA A MÁRIO LINO

"O aeroporto de Alcochete  elemento estruturante da Margem Sul

     Olho o evoluir das nossas grandes infraestruturas de transportes com um razoavel optimismo.  Dizem-me que está em vias de se concretizar  um acordo com a Espanha  com vista a construir com  caracter prioritário a linha de Badajoz  ao Poceirão, localidade onde está prevista uma plataforma logística e já actualmente servida pela  rede ferrovirária de bitola ibérica. Este objectivo, realizavel a curto prazo e com custos relativamente diminutos, tem uma importância imensa para nós: Portugal fica com uma primeira ligação à rede ferroviária europeia de bitola standard. A linha do Poceirão a  Badajoz  deverá ter, naturalmente, as mesmas características da linha de Badajoz a Madrid. Ou seja, nela deverão poder circular  comboios TGV  e, também, comboios de velocidade muito mais baixa e de mercadorias. A notícia de ter sido aberto o concurso para  concepção da gare do Caia, comum aos dois paises, é um indício de que este projecto vai para diante. Com custos adicionais mínimos,  a linha de Badajoz pode ser  prolongada  até ao Pinhal Novo onde há uma estação da FERTAGUS. Com este acrescento, que estou certo que será feito - são mais 15 km -  a nova linha pode começar a trazer passageiros TGV deEspanha para a Área Metropolitana de Lisboa.  A estação terminal será provisóriamente fora de Lisboa, mas deve ser lembrado que, de grande parte da AML, é mais facil chegar ao Pinhal Novo, do que a uma eventual estação no interior de Lisboa, nas Olaias ou no Oriente. (Uma vez decidida a construção da linha para Badajoz, julgo que o traçado de todas as outras linhas do Alentejo deve ser repensado ou pelo menos revisto de um modo crítico. Considero, também, os autarcas alentejanos se devem interessar pelo modo  como a  linha TGV irá passar proximo das respectivas cidades).

       Um problema dificil, que se relaciona com o traçado do futuro TGV para o Porto, e que terá de ser muito bem estudado e ponderado, é o da travessia ferroviária do Tejo. É desejavel que as câmaras ribeirinhas do Tejo se debrucem sobre ele, mas uma coisa é certa: este problema não é urgente e só pode ser resolvido depois de decidida a localização do NAL.  A única coisa a desejar é, portanto, que nestes dois anos não sejam tomadas decisões precipitadas sobre o assunto e, se possivel, que se iniciem estudos sérios.

       Consideremos, portanto, o problema da localização do NAL. O Governo encarregou o LNEC  de estudar as duas localizações, na Ota e em Alcochete.  Numa primeira declaração, o LNEC já disse ser a localização em Alcochete  possivel.  Falta  agora o seu parecer sobre  o estudo comparado das  duas localizações. Não vou repetir, aqui, a longa série de argumentos que, a meu ver, desaconselham fortíssimamente a Ota.  Vou só referir algumas questões que se relacionam com a construção dum aeroporto em Alcochete e com o impacto que pode ter como elemento estruturante da Margem Sul.

      a) Este aeroporto  que deverá ser feito por fases tem possibilidades de expansão quase ilimitadas.  O custo das pistas num aeroporto normal  é estimado em cerca de 10 % do custo total. Em Alcochete, as pistas não parece exigirem nem terreplanagens nem preparações especiais dos terrenos.  Assim, numa primeira fase, deve ser construida uma, ou mesmo duas pistas, muito bem dimensionadas, uma delas pelo menos com 60 metros de largura para poder receber  futuros aviões como o Air Bus A-380.  É um trabalho para que as nossas empresas parecem vocacionadas.

      b) Um aeroporto em Alcochete tem, desde logo, acessos rodoviários muito faceis.  Faz-se notar que, com a nova ponte do Carregado, os passageiros provenientes da região Oeste terão um acesso a este aeroporto possivelmente mais facil do que a um aeroporto da Ota e, certamente, com melhores possibilidades de estacionamento.

      c) Com respeito aos acessos ferroviários  convém, desde já desmentir uma ideia que  tem inquinado todas as discussões sobre o assunto: os comboios TGV não precisam de passar nos aeroportos. O NAL deverá ser servido por navettes ferroviárias muito frequentes que o liguem à estação central de Lisboa,  e eventualmente a outras,  mas não é necessário que os comboios TGV nele passem. 

      d) Vou-me permitir apresentar  um esboço do que terá de ser feito nas hipóteses do NAL ser em Alcochete  e  de duas  travessia que, a meu ver, é fundamental estudar: a da ponte, ou um tunel, na direcção do Montijo,  e a da travessia  ser entre Alverca e Vila Franca  na direcção do Porto Alto.  No primeiro caso, depois da travessia do Tejo, os comboios deverão seguir para Badajoz, para o Algarve  e, ainda, eventualmente, para o Porto, seguindo pela margem esquerda do Tejo até perto da Chamusca.  As navettes vindas de Lisboa com destino ao aeroporto deverão parar numa  estação na Margem Sul onde recolherão passageiros de todas estas linhas. 

       No caso da travessia ser perto de Alhandra, a situação é bastante semelhante, só que a estação de encontro será mais a Norte. (No caso da travessia ser para  Barreiro, a situação é bastante diferente e por isso não a analiso aqui).

      O conjunto de todos estes elementos faz-me crer que,  se for decidida a construção do novo aeroporto em Alcochete no início de 2008, será possivel  elaborar um projecto calendarizado para, sem encargos financeiros bruscos,  iniciar rapidamente as obras. Depois, se conseguirmos ter as primeiras pistas   operacionais dentro de poucos  anos,  será a existência de um aeroporto com grandes possibilidades de expansão e com zonas envolventes disponiveis num lugar priviligiado em termos geoestratégicos, que atrairá  novos investimentos e novas possibilidades de criar riqueza. "

PORTUGAL OU A FALTA DE TUSA

Ou ainda como "le Portugal ne fais bander"

imagem picada ao Zé Adelino Maltez

COMUNICO, LOGO EXISTO

Vasco Pulido Valente, citado pela Sábado, diz-nos que "o que não vem nos media deixou de ser real"... É normal, senhor doutor, pois vivemos numa sociedade de informação, também chamada mediática, e isso é, precisamente, o que a caracteriza. Mas, pequeno pormenor, não é bem assim, não "deixou de ser real" (porque nunca o foi), simplesmente, não tem existência... Ou como, se vivesse nesta sociedade, no nosso hoje, Descartes diria: "Comunico, logo existo"! Aliás, essa é, justamente, a assinatura de uma empresa especializada, a XMP.  Em todo o caso, VPV demonstra mais uma vez ser um dos mais lúcidos observadores da nossa realidade contemporânea...

VISÃO: MARIA DE BELÉM

PROCURA UM PALANQUE...

(e, diz ela, que Marques Mendes também precisa...)

OS SENHORES BISPOS

muito bem vistos por uma mulher do El País

Mais sobre Iga A.

O GOVERNO DE BARROSO

ERA MESMO UM FARTOTE…

«O grupo Amorim terá elaborado uma proposta de decreto-lei para a privatização da Companhia das Lezírias a pedido de Carlos Tavares, então ministro da Economia, que depois a fez chegar ao seu colega da Agricultura, Sevinate Pinto. O documento, a que o Expresso teve acesso, tinha sido entregue ao ministro da Economia a 8 de Abril de 2003 e chegou ao gabinete do ministro da Agricultura de Durão Barroso no dia 23 do mesmo mês. Em anexo, além do diploma com as regras do concurso público e o caderno de encargos, elaborado pelo escritório de José Miguel Júdice, vinha também um mapa identificado como 'Proposta Grupo Américo Amorim' que delimitava as áreas com vocação urbana e as que seriam dedicadas a agricultura, pecuária e floresta.» in Expresso

À medida que se vai conhecendo o que foram os governos do PSD/CDS, depois da fuga de Guterres, mais fica claro que têm tudo o que é necessário para estabelecer um compêndio de "boas práticas" do complexo económico neo-corporativo e salazarento.  Resta saber se a maneira de Barroso presidir à Europa tem tido as mesmas práticas… O que vale é que os poderes executivos da Comissão não chegam para vender o edifico do Berlaymont…

Terá sido também a pedido de Américo Amorim e do gabinete de José Miguel Júdice que o actual ministro da Agricultura pediu um estudo (que, naturalmente, nós pagamos...) para "saber" quais os impactos sobre a Companhia das Lezírias do aeroporto em Alcochete...?

Começa-se a perceber por que se "esqueciam" tanto algumas coisas muito evidentes. Tão evidentes que se metiam e metem pelos olhos dentro... Mas, como todos sabemos, "não há pior cego que o que não quer ver! E não interessa aos "amorins" deste sítio muito mal frequentado que se veja o que eles não querem que seja visto por já o terem reservado para os seus negócios privados com os bens e os dinheiros públicos...

Este modo salazarento de enriquecimento à custa do Estado é o responsável pelo sub-desenvolvimento de Portugal, pela degradação do País em "sítio muito mal frequentado". E os governos do PSD/CDS foram um caso exemplar de "boas práticas" neo-corporativas e salazarentas... Mostraram bem tudo o que não se pode fazer. Tudo o que tem de ser banido!

Como já alguém disse: «Tape-se a cara de vergonha .»

COMO A EXXONMOBIL VÊ

O FUTURO DA ENERGIA...

O que pensam as grandes petrolíferas da evolução tecnológica na área da energia e da evolução no campo da geopolítica da energia? Esse é, normalmente um segredo bem guardado... Tão bem guardado que, nos últimos anos, é mais fácil saber o que pensa o Pentágono nesta matéria do que o que andam a congeminar as petrolíferas. É por isso que esta intervenção do Chairman of ExxonMobil International, Robert Olsen, divulgada, em boa hora, pelo sempre bem informado China Confidential, é aqui retomada na íntegra:

“ Technology's Role in the Future of Energy

EDITOR'S NOTE: Robert Olsen, Chairman of ExxonMobil International, delivered the keynote speech at a major European offshore oil industry conference that was held in Aberdeen, Scotland, on September 4. In view of the importance of the subject matter, we have decided to republish the speech in its entirety, except for the speaker's brief introductory and closing remarks. Regardless of one's view of the oil industry, Olsen's analysis of the interrelated energy and environmental crises that threaten, respectively, to wreck the global economy and ruin the global environment, merits serious study and consideration, especially since it runs counter to the doom-and-gloom outlook of the peak oil crowd. One prediction worth noting: by 2030, Olsen says, solar and wind will account for only one percent of global energy demand--"just a fraction of the overall energy mix."


The complex, intertwined challenges of energy security of supply, economic growth and environmental protection are on the minds of governments and consumers alike, and there are many who frankly are unsure of our ability to handle all three successfully.

Given that the global economy needs continuing supplies of energy to grow, ExxonMobil sees an important future for oil and gas. The earth has a tremendous resource base; our industry has historically proven its proficiency in meeting challenges; and our company and others are investing heavily in new technologies that will enable us to continuously improve.

Today's global energy sector is truly interconnected, with international oil companies making significant contributions to the development of national resources. That trend is not likely to change--indeed, it is expected to continue to grow significantly. Effective collaboration and innovative technology will be the keys to our success.

Long-term planning is critical to meeting the world's future energy challenges. As such, ExxonMobil prepares a detailed long-term energy supply and demand outlook each year. This assessment is used in our annual business planning process.

The outlook, which extends to 2030, incorporates data and input from a variety of respected sources, including the International Energy Agency and the US Department of Energy.

By 2030, worldwide energy demand will be almost 40 per cent greater than today--close to 325 million oil equivalent barrels per day. And that assumes we will achieve an energy efficiency improvement of nearly 45 per cent by the end of the outlook period.

Most of the growing demand for energy will occur in developing countries where 80 per cent of the world's population lives, as they move toward industrialised societies. Access to energy will not only lead to more economic growth in the developing world, but also assist with improving living standards for the many people who lack even the most basic of necessities. One billion people today lack safe drinking water and 1.6 billion lack electricity.

About 80 per cent of the world's energy needs through 2030 will continue to be met by fossil fuels. Of the other energy sources, wind and solar are projected to grow rapidly. But by 2030, they will still only account for about one per cent of global energy demand - just a fraction of the overall energy mix. So, it will be the conventional energy sources - oil, natural gas and coal - that will need to meet the bulk of the world's energy requirements over the coming decades.

And the resources are available. According to the US Geological Survey, there are more than three trillion barrels of conventional, recoverable oil across the globe. When non-conventional forms are taken into account--such as shale oil and heavy oil--the estimated resource base grows to more than four trillion barrels.

When you consider that since the dawn of the oil industry, we have collectively produced just one trillion barrels, you can see that resources are adequate for the foreseeable future.

The challenge lies in access and timely development. We no longer find and produce oil and gas in the manner our forefathers did in the 1800s. Our industry has evolved over time, and it will be the continued emphasis on technological advancements that will be critical to our future successes.

Technology has long been the answer to our most difficult energy questions. Through the years, innovation has enabled our industry to overcome countless obstacles in finding, producing and delivering a product that so many people consider just another commodity.

From the first wells in Pennsylvania, to today's complex, multi-billion dollar projects, our industry has developed and deployed new technologies throughout its history, with a stunning record of achievement.

For instance, in our Sakhalin operations in northeast Russia, ExxonMobil is using leading-edge extended-reach drilling technology to reach oil and gas reserves that are more than 11 kilometres from the shore. And we're doing it with pinpoint accuracy in some of the most difficult operating conditions in the world.

Recent advances in LNG technologies are enabling natural gas to be delivered safely and efficiently anywhere in the world. For example, new liquefaction trains, which ExxonMobil has developed in partnership with Qatar Petroleum, are 60 per cent larger than the previous generation. That has enabled us to cut costs by more than 25 per cent, making imported LNG globally competitive.

Europe will be one of the primary beneficiaries of these efforts. Two European LNG regasification terminals are currently under construction - Adriatic LNG at Rovigo, Italy, and South Hook at Milford Haven, Wales. Combined, the two terminals will have the capacity to process 2.8 billion cubic feet of gas per day. Both are expected online in 2008.

But not only are we working on technology to access new resources, we are also working hard to get more out of existing ones. Maximising recovery from existing fields offers tremendous potential.

The development and application of enhanced oil recovery methods such as waterflooding, gas injection and thermal recovery of thick and heavy oils have extended the productive life of hundreds of fields across the globe.

Here in Europe, our innovative multi-fracture and multi-zone stimulation technologies have helped us access tight gas reserves in places like Germany, allowing us to produce gas resources that were previously unattainable. As these technologies continue to evolve, they will play a major role in increasing recoverable resources from fields throughout Europe, and the world.

These types of breakthrough technologies are making the unconventional resources conventional, and enabling us to produce energy more effectively, more efficiently and with less environmental impact than ever before.

No discussion about the realities facing our industry today would be complete without addressing the issue of greenhouse gas emissions and climate change.

This challenge, like the others I have discussed this morning, is also of immense duration and scope. It is a global issue, with potential impacts touching all corners of the world.

The evidence shows that the earth's average temperature has warmed about seven-tenths of a degree celsius in the past century. Many global ecosystems, especially polar ones, are showing signs of warming. CO2 emissions have increased during this same time period, and the burning of fossil fuels and changes in land use are two significant drivers of the increase.

Whilst climate remains a continuing area of scientific study, it has become increasingly evident that climate change poses risks to society and ecosystems. Therefore, it is prudent to take actions that address these risks, keeping in mind the central importance of energy to the world economy.

Studies have shown that significant advances in energy efficiency, along with expanded use of nuclear and alternatives, can deliver substantial emission savings. But if we are to stabilise CO2 levels in the atmosphere it will require more dramatic technological breakthroughs, given the rapidly rising global energy demand. Significant efforts need to be directed towards this goal, without a pre-determined view on what the eventual winners will be.

This is the reason that ExxonMobil is taking action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions today, and why we are supporting breakthrough technology research to help reduce the "gap" tomorrow.

Our industry has been quick to seek improvements in energy efficiency in its own operations. In addition, many in our industry have recognised the need for new technologies and are investing in research. Let me give you some examples of what ExxonMobil is doing in these areas.

Since 1999, the steps we've taken to improve energy efficiency at our own facilities have resulted in the avoidance of 12 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions last year alone ... the equivalent of taking about two million cars off the road.

Much of that reduction is due to our commitment to cogeneration at our refineries and chemical plants. Today, we have interests in 85 cogen units worldwide, with a combined capacity to provide about 3,700 megawatts of power ... enough electricity to meet the demands of nearly seven million European homes.

We are also partnering with automobile and commercial engine manufacturers on R&D programs that could yield fuel economy improvements in internal combustion engines of up to 30 per cent, with lower emissions.

Our partners in addressing climate change include governments, too. ExxonMobil and others are teaming up with the European Union to assess the viability of geological carbon storage, based in part on our experience in the North Sea Sleipner gas field, where we've sequestered one million metric tons of CO2 each year since 1998.

This initiative--CO2ReMoVe--is working to advance carbon capture and storage technologies by studying current projects at sites throughout Europe and Algeria. This approach holds great promise in becoming a major contributor to reduced emissions over the coming decades.

We're also a founding sponsor of the Global Climate and Energy Project, based at Stanford University, which epitomises the approach to exploring step-changing technology. By accelerating research into promising new energy technologies with economic and environmental potential on a worldwide scale, scientists at GCEP are moving toward breakthroughs that could lead to meaningful, worldwide emissions reductions.

GCEP scientists are researching how hydrogen and solar energy can be made economic; how engine and fuel systems can be made significantly more efficient; and how biofuels can be made more abundant. With a 100 million dollar commitment, ExxonMobil is proud to serve as the lead sponsor for GCEP's groundbreaking work.

Just as technology has continually been the driver of progress in our industry, I am confident that future technological advances will enable an effective response to the challenge of climate change.

Governments also play an important role in mitigating the risks of climate change. Many thoughtful policy proposals have been put forward aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

ExxonMobil's goal is to be a constructive participant in the dialogue about various policy options and to help progress thinking on this important issue. To that end, we are participating in a number of discussions with policymakers, environmental leaders, industry representatives, think tanks and trade groups.

Any effective and sustainable approach to addressing climate risk must incorporate common-sense, proven risk-management principles--assessing costs and benefits, while taking the actions most likely to achieve benefits at the lowest cost.

Policies must also balance the need to address climate risks with the continual need to meet the energy requirements of economic development, improving public health, and assisting in lifting people out of poverty in the developing world.

In general, we believe that maximising the use of markets to select and deploy technologies will best serve society's interests in the long term. Where a variety of needs and options exist with different costs and scale, markets work well.

Achieving a uniform and predictable cost for carbon across the economy would enable market mechanisms to work effectively to this end. Uniformity ensures economic efficiency, whilst predictability facilitates good decisions affecting energy consumption today, and investment in the technologies needed to reduce emissions over time.

Administrative simplicity and transparency for both companies and consumers are also essential characteristics of an effective policy framework. This helps businesses plan their investments and helps consumers understand the impact of policy on the goods and services they purchase.

Given the global nature of the challenge, effective policies should also offer a path to global participation. Focusing on the developed world alone cannot constrain global CO2 emissions. Failure to bring in the developing world will create imbalances, and could make the problem worse.

Finally, we must ensure that any sound policy continues to adjust as climate science develops, and we can see the impacts of climate policy on the world's economies.

We know that the European Union has designed and is operating a cap-and-trade system in an effort to control greenhouse gas emissions from large sources. Indeed, it is a system that our businesses in Europe continue to operate under with success.

However, what businesses operating in Europe are seeking is a uniform and predictable cost for carbon. Through the first phase of the trading scheme, we have seen carbon prices fluctuate widely between a high of 30 euros and a low of 25 euro cents per tonne.

As further policy frameworks are developed, we believe that other policy mechanisms might be more effective in providing a clear, long-term price for carbon. We believe these alternative approaches should be equally analysed and debated.

For example, an upstream cap-and-trade system--that is, a system placing a limit on carbon at the point where the fuel enters the commercial world rather than at the point of emission--offers potential advantages in terms of efficiency and simplicity. It reduces the number of regulated entities and provides a uniform cost of carbon to the entire economy.

Similarly, a carbon tax could enable the cost of carbon to be spread across the economy as a whole in a uniform and predictable way.

Of course, all these policy options carry significant challenges as well as potential benefits. Poorly considered versions of any policy can have negative consequences.

My purpose in sharing these thoughts with you is not to make a definitive case for one system over another. I do so to show that decisions of this kind are complex, that policy options need to be given careful consideration, and that constructive dialogue is crucial to meeting the climate change challenge.

I would be remiss if I did not also discuss the important role governments play-- not only in implementing effective climate policy, but also in helping the world maintain an affordable, reliable flow of energy.

The path to energy security does not lie in attempting to insulate domestic economies from the global marketplace. Instead, it lies in open, competitive markets, international trade, diversity of supply, and the strengthening of relationships between producing and consuming nations.

The value of such an interconnected marketplace is that energy security is enhanced when there are more participants, better relationships, and more diverse sources of supply.

The projects our industry undertakes span decades, require huge investments, and utilise cutting-edge technologies that evolve throughout project lifecycles. Long-term planning is critical--planning that looks beyond the current business cycle, relies on stable frameworks, and goes beyond political term limits.

As a result, the role governments play--in maintaining stable fiscal and regulatory environments and in allowing access to energy resources--is crucial to future energy security. They are vital to an industry that is highly capital-intensive and operates over such long time horizons.

Our industry has proven time and again that it will accept risk, even for projects that require massive investment. But only if measures are in place that allow us to operate effectively and resolve issues fairly. The tremendous energy infrastructure that successfully moves oil and gas around the world is proof that the industry will make large and prudent investments when it perceives long-term value and a reliable level of stability.

And that is the key.

When governments encourage investment, when oil and gas companies focus on developing new technologies, and when both work together to protect the environment, together we can successfully develop the energy the world needs to power growth and prosperity in the future.

# posted by Confidential Reporter @ 2:26 AM     "

PENSAR A GUERRA, ANALISAR A

PERCEPÇÃO, E PENSAR DE NOVO

Uma muito interessante análise de John Robb sobre as novas condições da guerra, a percepção que delas tem a opinião pública americana e consequências desses factos:

UNLEASHING THE DOGS OF WAR

Zogby Poll: A majority of Americans - 54% - believe the United States has not lost the war in Iraq.

John Robb: "In 4th generation warfare (guerrilla warfare), the war typically ends when one side, usually the nation-state, suffers moral collapse and loses the will to fight (ala Vietnam) -- this is in contrast to a collapse in means due to attrition (WWI) or a collapse in ability due to disruption (WWII)."

If you think the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan will end with this US presidency, think again. These wars will likely outlast the next several Presidents. The old Vietnam era formulas don't apply anymore. The reason is that the moral weaknesses that have traditionally limited the state's ability to fight long guerrilla wars have dissipated, and modern states may now have the ability and the desire to wage this type of war indefinitely. Here's what changed..." Continua Aqui

An Inconvenient Truth about

Private Military Companies

"If we drive out or expel this company [Blackwater] immediately there will be a security vacuum..." Iraqi government spokesman to Reuters.

An inconvenient truth missing in the debate over Blackwater (which is currently in trouble with the Iraqi government over a shooting incident), is that the US military is completely dependent on private military companies (PMCs). This dependency can't be wished away or reversed. If anything, given the trend lines, PMCs will increasingly replace conventional military forces well into the future. The reasons are simple. Private military companies are:

• Efficient. If you count the costs of 8 to 9 support personnel (in the DoD's extremely long bureaucratic "tail") needed to field every US soldier in the field and state-side rotations, the high pay for individual private military employees is a bargain (potentially 20% of the cost for a government soldier, not even counting the savings associated with medical care/retirements).
• Scalable. There are currently 20,000 PMC trigger pullers in Iraq. These men are guarding facilities and key people across the country. This is likely more trigger pullers (as opposed to support personnel) than the entire US military currently has in the country. Without these men, the US military would barely be able to field a force large enough to patrol Baghdad.
• Contingent. Unlike the hordes of bureaucratic Defense contractors that will permanently infest the halls of the DoD, private military companies field mission specific employees. IF there is a withdrawal from Iraq, there will be bust in the PMC industry as firms quickly shed employees.

Posted by John Robb on Sunday, 23 September 2007 at 01:33 PM | Permalink | Comments (6) ”

COMEMORAR A REPÚBLICA

Mensagem da associação cívica República e Laicidade, a que o CLARO se associa

"Escolher ser «cidadão» de uma República e não «súbdito» ou «vassalo» de um qualquer poder político -- seja ele um poder político efectivo ou meramente simbólico -- tem implicações profundíssimas no modo como nos perspectivamos e nos afirmamos, quer perante nós próprios, quer perante os outros.

"Assumir a República como o regime emancipador em que queremos colectivamente viver deve instituir, em cada um de nós, como expressão concreta dos direitos que nos reconhece e dos deveres que nos atribui, uma atitude permanente de atenção, de participação e de intervenção cívicas.

"Em Portugal, foi em 1910, a 5 de Outubro, que começámos a viver em República e, apesar de todas as vicissitudes por que passou a nossa História do século XX, é em República que hoje continuamos a viver.

"Recordar aquele momento fundador e partilhar com outros republicanos essa evocação constitui um claro gesto de afirmação (pessoal e pública) de apego aos valores e aos princípios da República em que almejamos continuar a viver e cuja vivência também queremos continuar a aprofundar.

"Este ano, uma vez mais, a Comissão Permanente dos Centros Republicanos tomou a iniciativa de organizar um conjunto de evento comemorativos do «5 de Outubro» e, como também já vai sendo usual, a associação cívica República e Laicidade associou-se à iniciativa.

"Desse modo, venho aqui endereçar a todos os associados e a todos os amigos da associação R&L, bem como aos demais republicanos das sua relações, um convite para participarem nos diferentes momentos da comemoração do 97º aniversário da implantação da nossa República

"O programa das comemorações pode ser consultado aqui:
http://www.laicidade.org/2007/09/23/comemoracao-dos-97-anos-do-estabelecimento-da-republica/

Saudações republicanas e laicas
Luis Mateus

agradece-se a mais ampla divulgação desta mensagem

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
REPÚBLICA e LAICIDADE - associação cívica
mensagem enviada por Luis M. Mateus "

Ahmedinejad na Columbia University

O fanático tresloucado de Teerão e comandante supremo dos Pasdaran, os "Guardas da Revolução", tal como aqui   já se tinha referido, viu a "Columbia" abrir as portas à sua presença e ao seu arrasador discurso totalitário e, obviamente, ultra-ditatorial... Uma vitória para os assaltantes da embaixada americana no Irão, nos "gloriosos" tempos de James Carter e sua eminência pouco parda Zbignew Brzezinski, o qual parece, como aqui se anotou, estar por trás desta iniciativa de tolerância ao horror. Não se pode dizer que este seja um dos momentos gloriosos da velha Columbia... Felizmente, que alguém teve o bom senso de proíbir a sua presença (naturalmente, festiva...) no Ground Zero!

ANÁLISE DA GUINÉ-BISSAU COMO

ESTADO FALHADO E NARCO-ESTADO

análise de Leopoldo Amado, ver   Aqui

THIS IS VERY WORRYING... POIS É !

Sept. 11 at Hartsfield

INTELIGÊNCIA ECONÓMICA

Definições na Wikipédia de Intelligence économique e de Competitive intelligence

A Inteligência Económica tem uma definição na Wikipédia, ver em Intelligence économique, como há muito mais tempo a tem a Competitive intelligence .

Da Inteligência Económica é que a Wikipédia parece ainda não ter nada a dizer... ou o atraso em português.

" La définition de l'intelligence économique a longtemps fait l'objet d'intenses débats théoriques et pratiques. La première définition de l'intelligence économique moderne date de 1967 par Harold Wilensky, dans un ouvrage intitulé : "L'intelligence organisationnelle". Il définit l'intelligence économique comme l'activité de production de connaissance servant les buts économiques et stratégiques d'une organisation, recueillie et produite dans un contexte légal et à partir de sources ouvertes.

Cette définition a été reprise et travaillée une première fois en France par la Commission Intelligence Economique et Stratégie des Entreprises du Commissariat Général au Plan en 1993, sous la présidence d'Henri Martre, et ayant notamment comme initiateurs et rapporteurs Christian Harbulot, Philippe Clerc et Philippe Baumard.

L'intelligence économique relève par conséquent des préoccupations du management et des techniques de gestion et de capitalisation des informations stratégiques utiles à une organisation.

ISRAEL TERÁ CAPTURADO NA SÍRIA

PERITOS NUCLEARES N-COREANOS

Bem informado, como sempre, o China Confidential avança com uma informação interessantíssima, sobre o que se terá passado no início deste mês na Síria:

"Israel May Have Captured NK Nuke in Syria

Britain's Sunday Times reported last night that an elite Israeli commando unit--members of the legendary Sayeret Matkal--captured North Korean nuclear materials and killed several North Korean nationals at a secret Syrian installation before its destruction by the Israeli Air Force earlier this month. The paper quoted "informed sources in Washington and Jerusalem."

"Nuclear materials" could be an understatement. Analysts tell China Confidential Pyongyang may have provided Damascus with an actual nuclear bomb or warhead.

Alternatively, the plutonium bomb-producing, Stalinist/Kimist regime may have supplied Syria with enriched uranium from a suspected parallel nuclear program.

Either way, North Korea's nuclear tag-team partner, Iran, had to have been involved in the project at Dayr az-Zawr in northern Syria, which was wiped out on Sept. 6. The two countries have cooperated in nuclear and missile development for years. More recently, North Korea has reportedly been helping Iran to accelerate production of a nuclear weapon; the cooperation may include preparations for an underground bomb test.

North Korea, as previously reported by China Confidential, may have also helped Iran to build and test a missile launching system that could be concealed and used aboard a civilian cargo ship. There is no known defense--except for a good offense--against this type of attack, known as a Scud-in-a-bucket. Given time to develop or acquire atomic warheads, Iran can be expected to arm and deploy sleeper ships at sea--a fleet of seemingly innocent, foreign flagged vessels--each of which could be capable of attacking US coastal cities with nuclear-tipped missiles.

China--ally of both Syria and Iran--had to have known what it's Korean vassal was up to in the Middle East.

But Beijing could also have tipped off the United States or Israel--who knows? The leaders of booming, energy-starved China may be dangerous; but they're not insane. The last thing they want to see in the Middle East is a nuclear exchange that could wipe out much of the world's oil supplies.

Confidential Sources: Brzezinski Brain Behind Columbia's Invitation to Iranian Monster-in-Chief

It's quite possible that US Senator Barack Obama's foreign policy adviser, Zbignew Brzezinski, was involved in the decision by Columbia University to invite Iranian monster-in-chief Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to speak at the Ivy League school.

Columbia is located in New York City, about seven miles north of where the World Trade Center stood until September 11, 2001, when the twin towers were attacked by Al Qaeda--an Islamist organization whose leaders, members and supporters have since been sheltered and assisted by Iran.

The idea for Ahmadinejad's appearance, set for this Tuesday, may have even originated with Brzezinski, who taught international relations at Columbia for many years before moving on to become National Security Advisor to US President Jimmy Carter. As noted below, Brzezinski is an old hand at US-Islamist intrigue.

China Confidential sources claim that Brzezinski convinced Columbia's president, Lee Bollinger, that there is an urgent need for citizen diplomacy to delay--or derail--what Brzezinski regards as a determined drive by the Bush administration to unnecessarily go to war with the Islamist nation over its suspect nuclear program. Brzezinski, according to these ..." Continua  Aqui

A Tolerance for Terror

Lee Bollinger, President of Columbia University, is a tolerant man. In fact, he is the author of The Tolerant Society, a book that asserts that a free society is strengthened by tolerating its most offensive and extreme elements--like Nazis, for instance.

Or leaders of nuclear-arming, terrorist-sponsoring rogue states.

In Bollinger's book, a mass-murdering foreign foe is just another world citizen, someone worthy of respect and ... tolerance. Instead of being put in prison, Bollinger believes, he should be given a ... platform ... not for hanging ... as in the case of the tyrant Saddam ... but for ... speaking. To the students and faculty of a great university and, via mass media, the residents of a great city and people all over the world.

Really. As reported this week, Columbia's envelope-pushing, left-leaning lawyer-intellectual is also the author of an academic atrocity--an invitation to the Hitler-admiring but Holocaust denying Iranian monster-in-chief Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to speak at Columbia, which is located at the northern end of Manhattan's Upper West Side, in New York ..."  Continua   Aqui

TOUS CONTRE LE VOILE

um site francês com

as últimas do "islamismo"

TERRORISMO

sobre as suas origens

• Terrorisme:It’s the demography, stupid! (Why the so-called peace process between Israel and the Palestinians can never work)
• Terrorisme: It’s the welfare state, stupid!

LET'S COME TOGETHER

os orgasmos da Europa

"I suppose this film is appropriate. The EU has been screwing Britain for the past 30 years." Godfrey Bloom (parlementaire britannique)

"The EU is not a bible belt. We believe in freedom of speech and artistic expression." Martin Selmayr (Porte-parole Commission européenne)

International Herald Tribune
Hip marketing for EU, or just sexploitation?
By Alan Riding

PARIS: The European Union feels unloved. All too many Europeans consider its governing bureaucracy, the European Commission, to be meddlesome, stuffy and generally out of touch. It has, one might say, an image problem: even when it does something useful, no one seems willing to give it credit.

Just imagine, then, how the carpets of power in Brussels must have buzzed with excitement when some hip marketeer, perhaps a well-paid consultant, came up with the idea of reaching out to the public through a newly created Web site linked to YouTube. Surely young Europeans would now pay attention.

Well, they did, at least to one of the 47 video clips currently available on www.youtube .com/eutube. In fact, in just two weeks, “Film Lovers Will Love This!” as the clip is teasingly called, has had close to 2.8 million hits. And, yes, it shows Europeans enjoying themselves being European - in bed.

In just 44 seconds, it presents flashes of 18 heterosexual and homosexual couples having steamy sex, accompanied by breathless groans and climactic screams and concluding with the cheerful message: “Let’s come together.”

European union, indeed.

OK, in fairness, the mini-scenes are all taken from European movies. And, as with four other hugging, weeping and kissing clips - “European Films: Tapping Into the Talent,” “Singing the Blues on the Silver Screen,” “Romanticism Still Alive in Europe’s Films” and “Joy” - the commission’s declared purpose is to promote European cinema.

“The European Union is not the Bible Belt,” said Martin Selmayr, a commission spokesman. “These clips come from award-winning films and they show the EU’s rich cinematic heritage, which we can all be proud of.”

But one cannot help noticing that the less raunchy the clip, the fewer the hits: only some 60,000 so far, for instance, for “Singing the Blues on the Silver Screen.” That’s not bad, though, compared with most of the other, more worthy, clips. One eight-minute look at the European Union’s “partnership” with the United States has barely reached 1,000 hits.

Still, the range of topics explored at least confirms the commission’s eagerness to use new media to spread the good news of its activities, whether in environmental protection, anti-smoking campaigns and foreign aid or in areas of less immediate public concern, such as nanotechnology, criminal justice and the sugar trade.

Announcing EUtube on June 29, Margot Wallström, the commission’s vice president in charge of communication strategy, explained: “This initiative reflects the commission’s commitment to better explain its policies and actions on issues which concern citizens across the EU, such as climate change, energy or immigration.”

Understandably, then, Brussels officials have felt a tad frustrated to see their great communications project hijacked by sex. Efforts by some British tabloids to stir up protests about officially blessed “pornography” have come to little, but officials can hardly feel that “Film Lovers Will Love This!” is conveying their full message.

The commission’s representative in London, Reijo Kemppinen, was prompted to issue a statement poking fun at the “sudden outbreak of prudery” in some of the British press, itself not averse to publishing photographs of topless women.

He went on: “The compilations were meant to convey emotion and they certainly seem to have got a reaction. In spite of attempts to whip up a scandal because of the sexy nature of one of the clips, hundreds of thousands of British people are learning more about the EU’s media program and almost all are reacting maturely and positively.”

Was it confidence in Britons’ maturity about sex that led the commission to launch the initiative in English? A German-language Web site has now been added, but puzzlingly “Film Lovers Will Love This!” is not among the 11 clips on offer to date. Too hot? A French version is also planned, but the French are already presumed to know about sex.

More to the point, is EUtube - or indeed YouTube - an effective tool for winning over Europeans to the merits of the European Union?

Any student of YouTube knows that almost weekly some oddball, violent or sexy clip notches up millions of hits. But there is less evidence that it is a Web site sought out by people interested in serious research.

In that sense, at least, the idea of using EUtube to celebrate European cinema seems rational. In fact, avid film buffs may even get a kick out of trying to identify the movies that provide the two- or three-second excerpts. (”Amélie Poulain,” “Bad Education” and “Dogville” are among the 30 films used in the five cinema videos.)

Whether this makes Europeans warm to the European Union is a different matter. In fact, as the European Union has expanded to 27 countries since the end of the Cold War, more and more Europeans feel European. Yet the benefits of membership have not translated into affection for the union and its executive branch, the commission.

Would the commission be better served by forgetting about being loved and concentrating instead on promoting Europeanness through art, music and literature - through the Rembrandts, Beethovens and Shakespeares who have traditionally united Europe?

A fine thought, no doubt, but such a menu may not exactly stop young surfers in their tracks.

So EUtube it will have to be. And, in truth, it has already left its mark. Millions of people have discovered the Web site thanks to “Film Lovers Will Love This!” And, who knows, maybe the suits in Brussels who cooked up the scheme are now feeling a little bit sexier. "

O “CASO DO CÓDIGO”

DESMENTE A OPOSIÇÃO

ou como o Governo tem mesmo muito pouca arte na comunicação política

«A entrada em vigor do Código de Processo Penal veio desmentir uma ideia feita que a oposição tem ajudado a construir: a de que o Governo é mestre na arte da comunicação e que esse tem sido o seu melhor trunfo político.

O caso do Código demonstrou a quem tivesse dúvidas que, em termos de comunicação política, o Governo goza de uma fama que não merece. Pode-se mesmo dizer que, para lá do primeiro-ministro, de um ministro da Presidência relativamente hábil a apagar fogos e de um ministro das Finanças que, na sua sobriedade e antivedetismo, transmite uma imagem de seriedade política e de honestidade intelectual, o Governo enquanto máquina de comunicação, como se lhe refere a oposição, na realidade não existe.

Tem-se visto, aliás, com a sucessão de casos de ministros que se calam quando devem falar e que se afundam sempre que abrem a boca.»

Fernando Madrinha no Expresso  

SOMEDAY- (THE REVOLUTION SONG)
By Nazanin & Peter Karroll (2007)

" They were on the march then
In 1978
They filled our minds with hate
They deceived the nation
In the name of religion
And soon it was too late
When the soldiers came
We were on the run
Our lives forever changed
That was no solution
Regressive revolution
Together we must stand

Someday
We will find a way
Someday
Someday
Someday
Someday
The darkness fades away
Someday
Someday

I’m calling all the children
Now that were all grown up
Is it time to make a change
Take this old oppression
With a new aggression
Redeem our rightful place

Someday
We will find a way
Someday
Someday
Someday
Someday
The darkness fades away
Someday
Someday

I have a new solution
It’s called progressive revolution
And someday
Is right now

Someday
We will find a way
Someday
Someday
Someday
Someday
The darkness fades away
Someday
Someday "

NAZANIN AFSHIN-JAM on Global : Help Save Iranian Girl

.

NAZANIN - Save this Child from Execution by Hanging

A ESCRAVATURO NO ISLÃO

Malek Chabel, antropólogo de origem argelina mas residente em França, publica este mês um livro que vai dar muito que falar:  "L’eslavage en terre d’islam" ("A Escravatura nas Terras do Islão"), já muito referido na blogos francesa, como se pode ver neste exemplo de jcdurbant, um dos bloggers do universo "Le Monde":

" Livres: L’esclavage fait partie de l’Islam (Slavery is part of Islam)

 L’esclavage fait partie de l’Islam. L’esclavage fait encore partie du jihad, et le jihad durera aussi longtemps que l’Islam. Sheikh Saleh Al-Fawzan  (imam saoudien, nov . 2003)

Mauritanie, Arabie saoudite, pays du Golfe, Soudan, Pakistan, Maroc, Inde, Iran, sans parler de la Libye avec le retour des rançons barbaresques … De l’esclavage traditionnel ou de traine aux mariages iraniens à l’heure … Autant de formes de servitude, physique, économique et/ou psychologique qu’a le mérite de rappeler l’anthropologue franco-algérien Malek Chebel dans son dernier livre sur le sujet tabou (pour les musulmans comme pour nombre d’islamologues) de l’esclavage sur les terres d’un islam qui ne les a toujours pas remises en question pour les non-musulmans ou les femmes.

"En Islam - dit  Malek Chebel - le sujet est tabou. L’esclavage y est tellement intériorisé que les esclavagistes eux-mêmes refusent d’admettre qu’ils le sont. Même des islamologues occidentaux comme Vincent Monteil, Jacques Berque ou Louis Massignon, qui comptent parmi ceux qui ont le mieux connu l’Islam et qui disposaient des informations pour faire taire ce scandale ont préféré se concentrer sur la hauteur mystique des grands théosophes plutôt que de faire la lumière sur les réalités scandaleuses des marchands de chair humaine.

" Celui qui est converti ne peut être réduit en esclavage, c’est un principe fondamental de l’islam. Pourtant, dès le VIIe siècle, la traite s’organise vers l’Asie, les Balkans et surtout l’Afrique…

" L’empire avait besoin de bras, et comme justement l’esclave ne pouvait être musulman, on est parti le chercher ailleurs, en Asie, en Turquie, en Afrique. En échange du paiement d’une taxe, le monothéiste, juif ou chrétien, était protégé par l’islam, d’où son nom de dhimmi . Mais il y a le texte et la réalité, et il est vrai que nombre de Slaves de confession orthodoxe ont été réduits en esclavage, notamment sous le califat turc, pour remplir les harems et peupler l’armée.

" L’esclavage existe dans de nombreux pays, particulièrement en Mauritanie, en Arabie saoudite, dans les pays du Golfe, mais aussi au Maroc et en Inde, où vous citez les intouchables.

" La petite fille placée ad vitam aeternam comme bonne dans une famille marocaine, l’enfant indien asservi sur un chantier parce que ses parents sont endettés et le descendant d’esclave devenu métayer sur le domaine d’un grand propriétaire mauritanien

" Et je ne parle pas des femmes qui, en Iran ou ailleurs, sont utilisées comme des objets, par le biais notamment des mariages de convenance : on se marie le matin, on consomme et on divorce le soir, le bénéficiaire de ce tour de passe-passe étant bien sûr l’homme. Le lien entre toutes les situations, c’est la servitude, physique, économique et psychologique. Nombre des exemples que je donne relèvent de l’esclavage de traîne : l’homme reste asservi parce qu’il n’a pas les moyens de quitter ses liens, même s’il est en théorie affranchi. Ce n’est pas un hasard si la Mauritanie en est à sa troisième loi d’affranchissement, la dernière ayant été promulguée en août 2007. "

“L’islam est victime de sa culture esclavagiste”
Le Point
13/09/2007 - Propos recueillis par Catherine Golliau

Malek Chebel, défenseur de l’esprit des Lumières en Islam, engage un nouveau combat : éradiquer la culture esclavagiste, toujours vivante selon lui dans le monde musulman. Un cri de guerre.

L’esclavage existe toujours en terre d’islam. Au pire, on le nie, au mieux, on le tait : telle est la thèse de « L’esclavage en terre d’islam », le dernier livre de l’anthropologue Malek Chebel, publié cette semaine chez Fayard. Cet ancien psychanalyste s’est fait une habitude d’attaquer la société musulmane là où elle a mal, dans son rapport à la raison et à la liberté de conscience, au plaisir et au sexe. Son dernier opus est encore plus dérangeant : plus qu’une étude scientifique, c’est un brûlot. L’Islam qu’il décrit est celui des négriers et des trafiquants, des enfants exploités et des femmes violées. Le fond comme la forme de ce pamphlet peuvent déranger. L’auteur a choisi de se mettre en scène et de livrer sans contrainte ses impressions, au risque d’altérer la rigueur de son propos. Qu’importe ! ll ose ce que d’autres amoureux de l’Islam n’ont jamais oser faire : clamer haut et fort son indignation face à la culture de l’esclavage en Islam.

Le Point : L’esclavage dans les pays musulmans est un fait connu : nous avons tous en tête des visions de harem où les eunuques et les concubines sont au service du sultan. De nombreux auteurs comme Bernard Lewis, Robert C. Davis et Olivier Pétré-Grenouilleau, pour n’en citer que quelques-uns, ont travaillé sur ce thème. Qu’apportez-vous de neuf sur le sujet ?

Malek Chebel : Le fait que ces auteurs, tout à fait estimables, ne soient pas musulmans pèse sur la lecture que l’on fait de leurs travaux en terre d’islam. Je les cite d’ailleurs abondamment. Mais en Islam, le sujet est tabou. L’esclavage y est tellement intériorisé que les esclavagistes eux-mêmes refusent d’admettre qu’ils le sont. Même des islamologues occidentaux comme Vincent Monteil, Jacques Berque ou Louis Massignon, qui comptent parmi ceux qui ont le mieux connu l’Islam et qui disposaient des informations pour faire taire ce scandale ont préféré se concentrer sur la hauteur mystique des grands théosophes plutôt que de faire la lumière sur les réalités scandaleuses des marchands de chair humaine. Moi, je suis musulman. Ma parole a un poids différent. Mon étude est une enquête de terrain. J’ai visité tous les pays dont je présente la culture esclavagiste. Je suis allé sur place, à Zanzibar, en Mauritanie, au Maroc, en Egypte… J’ai rencontré les victimes de l’esclavage.

- Mais en touchant aussi violemment à l’islam et à ses pratiques, vous ne craignez pas d’être frappé d’une fatwa ?

- Je pourrais craindre une fatwa si j’insultais l’islam. Mais justement, je le défends. L’esclavage est en contradiction avec les fondements de la religion musulmane. Nous pouvons dire que l’islam est victime de la culture esclavagiste. Il est temps de dénoncer l’hypocrisie de tous ceux qui se revendiquent de l’islam le plus pur et qui dans le même temps violent son esprit en réduisant les autres en servitude. Mon livre est un manifeste et un cri de guerre contre ces pratiques.

- Le Coran est pourtant très ambigu sur l’esclavage.

- Le Coran, qui est le texte sacré de l’islam, évoque la question de l’esclavage dans vingt-cinq versets distincts répartis sur quinze sourates. Si certains versets peuvent paraître ambigus, la tonalité d’ensemble penche en faveur de l’esclave. « Délivrez vos frères des chaînes de l’esclavage », dit le Prophète. Celui qui se convertit à l’islam ne peut être retenu en esclavage. Une loi édictée sous le calife Omar (mort en 644) stipule par ailleurs que le musulman ne peut asservir son coreligionnaire, ni être asservi par lui. Imaginez, au VIIe siècle, dans une Arabie où l’esclavage se pratique couramment, ce que cette affirmation peut avoir de révolutionnaire. Tout musulman sincère qui possède un esclave est encouragé à l’affranchir. Celui qui commet un acte que la morale réprouve peut ainsi se racheter en libérant un esclave.

- Tous les hommes ne sont pas pourtant égaux dans l’islam ?

- C’est vrai, et le Livre précise que Dieu « a élevé les uns au-dessus des autres, en degrés, afin que les premiers prennent les autres à leur service, tels des serviteurs ». C’est sur un verset comme celui-ci que se fondent aussi les musulmans wahhabites d’Arabie saoudite et ceux du Golfe pour réduire leurs domestiques en servitude, en leur enlevant leur passeport et en les traitant comme des esclaves.

- Celui qui est converti ne peut être réduit en esclavage, c’est un principe fondamental de l’islam. Pourtant, dès le VIIe siècle, la traite s’organise vers l’Asie, les Balkans et surtout l’Afrique…

- L’empire avait besoin de bras, et comme justement l’esclave ne pouvait être musulman, on est parti le chercher ailleurs, en Asie, en Turquie, en Afrique. En échange du paiement d’une taxe, le monothéiste, juif ou chrétien, était protégé par l’islam, d’où son nom de dhimmi . Mais il y a le texte et la réalité, et il est vrai que nombre de Slaves de confession orthodoxe ont été réduits en esclavage, notamment sous le califat turc, pour remplir les harems et peupler l’armée.

- De Zanzibar à Socotra, vous énumérez tous les comptoirs de traite qu’a connus l’Afrique. Des villes comme Le Caire ont fondé une partie de leur richesse sur le trafic d’esclaves. Si la traite atlantique organisée par les Européens du XVIIe au XIXe siècle est inexcusable, les musulmans n’ont pas vraiment de leçon à donner : ils ont organisé la traite des Noirs pendant près de dix siècles en toute bonne conscience.

- C’est vrai, et j’ai même découvert un ensemble de documents qui correspondent au Code noir en vigueur dans les Antilles françaises à l’époque de la traite : des préceptes et des règles qui expliquent comment acheter, vendre et traiter l’esclave. Mais si les conditions de vie pendant le transport sont tout aussi odieuses, le statut de l’esclave en Islam était très différent de celui qui lui a été imposé par les Européens dans les plantations d’Amérique.

- Les témoignages montrent quand même qu’un eunuque ou un serviteur ne valait pas grand-chose…

- Il est difficile de résumer dix siècles d’esclavage. Je vous donnerai seulement trois exemples. Le premier est celui des femmes enlevées pour peupler les harems. Si elles avaient un enfant du maître, elles étaient affranchies et leur enfant était reconnu. On connaît plusieurs cas de sultans ou de califes qui étaient fils d’esclave. Deuxième exemple : les esclaves qui grimpent dans l’administration ou dans l’armée. Les mamelouks ont ainsi dirigé l’Egypte du XIIIe au XVIe siècle : ils étaient à l’origine des esclaves utilisés comme soldats, qui un jour ont pris le pouvoir. Troisième exemple : les « sultans-esclaves » de l’Inde moghole, au XIIIe siècle. D’une manière générale, l’esclave peut se convertir, il ne peut prétendre qu’à une demi-part d’un héritage, mais rien ne l’empêche de devenir suffisamment riche pour racheter sa liberté, et ensuite de détenir lui-même des esclaves !

- Vous assurez que l’esclavage existe dans de nombreux pays, particulièrement en Mauritanie, en Arabie saoudite, dans les pays du Golfe, mais aussi au Maroc et en Inde, où vous citez les intouchables. De quel esclavage parlez-vous ? Peut-on mettre au même niveau la petite fille placée ad vitam aeternam comme bonne dans une famille marocaine, l’enfant indien asservi sur un chantier parce que ses parents sont endettés et le descendant d’esclave devenu métayer sur le domaine d’un grand propriétaire mauritanien ?

- Il y a plusieurs niveaux d’esclavage, certes. Et je ne parle pas des femmes qui, en Iran ou ailleurs, sont utilisées comme des objets, par le biais notamment des mariages de convenance : on se marie le matin, on consomme et on divorce le soir, le bénéficiaire de ce tour de passe-passe étant bien sûr l’homme. Le lien entre toutes les situations, c’est la servitude, physique, économique et psychologique. Nombre des exemples que je donne relèvent de l’esclavage de traîne : l’homme reste asservi parce qu’il n’a pas les moyens de quitter ses liens, même s’il est en théorie affranchi. Ce n’est pas un hasard si la Mauritanie en est à sa troisième loi d’affranchissement, la dernière ayant été promulguée en août 2007. Il faut une grande volonté pour lutter contre la servitude. Depuis trop longtemps, les musulmans sont imprégnés d’une culture de l’asservissement. Ils doivent s’en affranchir.

« L’esclavage en terre d’islam » (Fayard, 496 pages, 24 E)

16 septembre 2007 Publié livres, Afrique, Islam et Occident, Moyen-Orient, Iran, esclavage, libertés, désinformation | Lien permanent | "

RIDENDO CASTIGAT  MORES

"Descubra as diferenças entre Mitchell e Al Sahaf, ministro da Propaganda de Saddam

O que sabemos e o que julgamos que sabemos

BIN LADEN VISTO À LUPA PELA STRATFOR

Bin Laden, os obstáculos à sua captura e a recente montagem vídeo, a propósito do sexto aniversário da barbárie do 11 de Setembro são analisados pela Stratfor:

" The Obstacles to the Capture of Osama bin Laden

By Fred Burton and Scott Stewart

Al Qaeda's As-Sahab media arm released a video Sept. 11 to commemorate the sixth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. Although the 47-minute video features a voice-over introduction by Osama bin Laden, the bulk of it is of Abu Musab Waleed al-Shehri, one of the suicide bombers who crashed American Airlines Flight 11 into the World Trade Center's north tower. That recording was made prior to al-Shehri's travel to the United States in the spring of 2001.

There is nothing in bin Laden's audio segment to indicate it was recorded recently. The production does include a still photograph of him -- one taken from what appears to be a real bin Laden video released Sept. 7 (in which he sports a dyed beard), but bin Laden's comments about the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi suggest they were recorded during al Qaeda's 2006 media blitz.

The release of two successive bin Laden messages, however, has again focused attention on bin Laden, who before last week had not been seen on video since late October 2004. This increased attention has once again caused people to question why the United States has failed to find bin Laden -- and to wonder whether it ever will.

While the feds generally get their man in the movies or on television, it is very difficult in real life to find a single person who does not want to be found. It is even harder when that person is hiding in an extremely rugged, isolated and lawless area and is sheltered by a heavily armed local population.

The United States and Pakistan have not launched a major military operation to envelop and systematically search the entire region where bin Laden likely is hiding -- an operation that would require tens of thousands of troops and likely result in heavy combat with the tribes residing in the area. Moreover, this is not the kind of operation they will take on in the future. The United States, therefore, will continue intelligence and covert special operations forces efforts, but if it is going to catch bin Laden, it will have to wait patiently for one of those operations to produce a lucky break -- or for bin Laden to make a fatal operational security blunder.

Needle in a Haystack

Finding a single man in a large area with rugged terrain is a daunting task, even when a large number of searchers and a vast array of the latest high-tech surveillance equipment are involved. This principle was demonstrated by the manhunt for so-called "Olympic Bomber" Eric Rudolph, who was able to avoid one of the largest manhunts in U.S. history by hiding in North Carolina's Great Smoky Mountains. The task force looking for Rudolph at times had hundreds of federal, state and local law enforcement officers assigned to it, while some of its search operations involved thousands of law enforcement and volunteer searchers. The government also employed high-tech surveillance and sensor equipment and even offered a $1 million reward for information leading to Rudolph's capture.

However, Rudolph's capture in May 2003, more than five years after he was listed on the FBI's most-wanted list, was not the result of the organized search for him. Rather, he was caught by a rookie police officer on a routine patrol who found Rudolph rummaging for food in a dumpster behind a grocery store. The officer did not even realize he had captured Rudolph until he had taken him to the police station for booking.

Hostile Terrain

The terrain in the Smoky Mountains is tough and remote, but it is nothing compared to the terrain in the soaring, craggy Safed Koh range that runs along the Pakistani-Afghan border or in the Hindu Kush to the north. Some of the peaks in the Safed Koh range, including Mount Sikaram, are well over twice as high as any peak in the Smokies, while the Hindu Kush contains some of the highest peaks in the world.

But it is not only the terrain that is hostile. In the Great Smokies, there are some people who are not happy to see "revenuers" and other government agents -- or other strangers, for that matter -- but at least the area is under the federal government's control. The same cannot be said of the lawless areas along the Afghan-Pakistani border -- the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP). The presence of Pakistani military forces is resented in these areas, and troops are regularly attacked by the heavily armed tribesmen living there.

This is not a new phenomenon by any means, though. The Pashtun tribes in the rugged area along the Durand Line (the line set to demarcate the border between the British Raj and Afghanistan, which later became the Afghan-Pakistani border) have always been difficult to control. Even before the establishment of Pakistan, the inhabitants of the area gave the British colonial authorities fits for more than a century. The Britons were never able to gain full control over the region, so they instead granted extensive power to tribal elders, called maliks. Under the deal, the maliks retained their autonomy in exchange for maintaining peace between the tribesmen and the British Raj -- thus allowing commerce to continue unabated.

However, some dramatic flare-ups of violence occurred against the Britons during their time in the region. One of the last of them began in 1936 when a religious leader known as the Faqir of Ipi encouraged his followers to wage jihad on British forces. (Jihad against invading forces is a centuries-old tradition in the region.) The faqir and his followers fought an extended insurgency against the British forces that only ended when they left Pakistan. The United Kingdom attempted to crush the faqir and his followers, but the outmanned and outgunned insurgents used the rugged terrain and the support of the local tribes to their advantage. Efforts to use spies to locate or assassinate the faqir also failed. Although the British and colonial troops pursuing the faqir reportedly numbered more than 40,000 at one point, the faqir was never captured or killed. He died a natural death in 1960.

A Modern Faqir?

Under U.S. pressure, the Pakistani military entered the FATA in force in March 2004 to pursue foreign militants -- for the first time since the country's creation -- but the operation resulted in heavy casualties for the Pakistani army, demonstrating how difficult it is for the Pakistani military to fight people so well integrated in the Pashtun tribal badlands. Following that failed operation, the Pakistani government reverted to the British model of negotiating with the maliks in an effort to combat the influence of the Taliban and foreign jihadists -- and has been harshly criticized because of it. Nowadays, jihadist insurgents are attacking Pakistani security and intelligence forces in the Pashtun areas in the Northwest.

The parallels between the hunt for the Faqir of Ipi and bin Laden are obvious -- though it must be noted that bin Laden is a Saudi and not a native-born Pashtun. However, many of the challenges that the United Kingdom faced in that operation are also being faced by the United States today.

Aside from the terrain -- a formidable obstacle in and of itself -- U.S. forces are hampered by the strong, conservative Islamic conviction of the people in the region. This conviction extends beyond the tribes to include some members of the Pakistani military and Pakistan's intelligence agencies -- especially those at the operational level in the region. It must be remembered that prior to 9/11 the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence agency and military openly supported the Taliban and their al Qaeda allies. In addition to the relationships formed between bin Laden and the so-called "Afghan Arabs" (foreign jihadists) during the war against the Soviets, Pakistani troops also trained and fought alongside the Taliban and al Qaeda in their battles against the Northern Alliance and other foes. Because of these deep and historic ties, there are some in the Pakistani government (specifically within the security apparatus) who remain sympathetic, if not outright loyal, to their friends in the Taliban and al Qaeda.

Additionally, and perhaps just as important, many in the Pakistani government and military do not want to kill their own people -- the Pashtuns, for example -- in order to destroy the much smaller subset of Pakistani and foreign militants. The challenge is to eliminate the militants while causing very little collateral damage to the rest of the population -- and some in the Pakistani government say the airstrikes in places such as Chingai and Damadola have not accomplished this goal. In August, Pakistani Foreign Minister Khurshid Kasuri told television channel AAJ that Pakistan had done all it can in the war on terrorism and that, "No one should expect anything more from Islamabad."

In an operation such as the manhunt for bin Laden, intelligence is critical. However, the Taliban and al Qaeda so far have used their home-field advantage to establish better intelligence networks in the area than the Americans. According to U.S. counterterrorism sources, U.S. intelligence had gathered some very good leads in the early days of the hunt for bin Laden and other high-value al Qaeda targets, and they shared this intelligence with their counterparts in the Pakistani security apparatus to try to organize operations to act on the intelligence. During this process, people within the intelligence apparatus passed information back to al Qaeda, thus compromising the sources and methods being used to collect the information. These double agents inside the Pakistani government did grave damage to the U.S. human intelligence network.

Double agents within the Pakistani government are not the only problem, however. Following 9/11, there was a rapid increase in the number of case officers assigned to collect information pertaining to al Qaeda and bin Laden, and the CIA was assigned to be the lead agency in the hunt. One big problem with this, according to sources, was that most of these case officers were young, inexperienced and ill-suited to the mission. The CIA really needed people who were more like Rudyard Kipling's character Kim -- savvy case officers who understand the region's culture, issues and actors, and who can move imperceptibly within the local milieu to recruit valuable intelligence sources. Unfortunately for the CIA, it has been unable to find a real-life Kim.

This lack of seasoned, savvy and gritty case officers is complicated by the fact that, operationally, al Qaeda practices better security than do the Americans. First, there are few people permitted to see bin Laden and the other senior leaders, and most of those who are granted access are known and trusted friends and relatives. Someone else who wants to see bin Laden or other senior al Qaeda leaders must wait while a message is first passed via a number of couriers to the organization. If a meeting is granted, the person is picked up at a time of al Qaeda's choosing and taken blindfolded via a circuitous route to a location where he is stripped and searched for bugs, beacons and other tracking devices. The person then reportedly is polygraphed to verify that his story is true. Only then will he be taken -- blindfolded and via a circuitous route -- to another site for the meeting. These types of measures make it very difficult for U.S. intelligence officers to get any of their sources close to the al Qaeda leaders, much less determine where they are hiding out.

The areas where bin Laden likely is hiding are remote and insular. Visitors to the area are quickly recognized and identified -- especially if they happen to be blond guys named Skip. Moreover, residents who spend too much time talking to such outsiders often are labeled as spies and killed. These conditions have served to ensure that the jihadists maintain a superior human intelligence (and counterintelligence) network in the area. It is a network that also stretches deep into the heart of Islamabad and Rawalpindi, Islamabad's twin city and home to the Pakistani army's general headquarters.

The Price of Security

Although al Qaeda's operational security and the jihadist intelligence network have been able to keep bin Laden alive thus far, they have lost a number of other senior operatives, including Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, Mohammed Atef, Abu Zubaydah, Ramzi bin al-Shibh, Abu Faraj al-Libi and others. Most of these have been al Qaeda operational managers, people who, by the very nature of their jobs, need to establish and maintain communications with militant cells.

This drive to recruit new jihadists to the cause and to help continue operational activity is what led to the lucky break that resulted in the 1995 arrest of Abdel Basit, the operational planner and bombmaker responsible for the 1993 World Trade Center bombing. Basit had tried to recruit a foreign student to assist him in one of the attempts to conduct "Operation Bojinka," a plan to bomb multiple U.S. airliners. Having gotten cold feet, the student revealed the plot, thus allowing Diplomatic Security special agents the opportunity to coordinate an operation to arrest Basit.

Al Qaeda has learned from the mistakes made by the men it has lost and has better secured the methods it uses to communicate with the outside world. This increased security, however, has resulted in increased insulation, which has adversely affected not only communications but also financial transfers and recruiting. Combined with U.S. efforts against al Qaeda, this has resulted in a reduction in operational ability and effectiveness.

The tension between operations and security poses a significant problem for an organization that seeks to maintain and manage a global militant network. By opting to err on the side of security, bin Laden and the others could escape capture indefinitely, though they would remain operationally ineffective. However, should they attempt to become more operationally active and effective -- and decrease their security measures to do so -- they will provide the United States with more opportunities to get the one break it needs to find bin Laden."

VEGETARIANO...!?

Vegetariano...!? Mas esta foto é um anúncio e um apelo a comer carne...!

UM ECO-SISTEMA CIBERCRIMINOSO

Um alerta da newsletter especializadaNetEco para o aparecimento de uma situação de alto risco onde o perigo espreita em permanência e escolhe as vítimas entre os mais desprevenidos:

"Un écosystème de la cybercriminalité se met en place"

 A l'occasion de la publication du rapport semestriel de Symantec sur les menaces Internet (ISTR XII), Laurent Heslault, directeur général adjoint de l'éditeur de solutions de sécurité informatique en France, fait le point sur l'évolution du phénomène : « Nous sommes passés du défi au délit, les codes malveillants ont gagné en furtivité. La collaboration progresse entre deux catégories d'acteurs, des hackers très techniques qui vont chercher les outils et les failles, et des vendeurs ». MAIS AQUI

SEGREDOS DO MÉDIO ORIENTE

no "China Confidential"

O Médio Oriente tem estado, nestes últimos dias, em foco e as analistas do "China Confidential" tem-lhe dedicado quase toda a sua atenção, procurando penetrar e perceber o que constitui

" The Dirty Secret in the Middle East

The dirty secret of America's failed democracy promotion project in Iraq is that no nation in the Middle East, except for Israel, ever wanted it to succeed. The Jewish state bought into the Bush administration's reverse domino theory--that democracy, once installed in Iraq, would spread througout the region and perhaps, even, across the whole, dysfunctional Muslim world, transforming one backward dictatorship after another into bastions of "freedom" and free enterprise, and so on and so forth.

But the region's rulers fear and loathe such transformation. From the turbaned totalitarians of Islamist Iran to the secular, authoritarian leaders of Syria and Egypt and the monarchies of Jordan and Saudi Arabia--a family business disguised as a country--the unspoken consensus is that democracy is a menace. Something to be avoided like a plague, or killed in infancy before it can grow into a terrible monster.

Put differently, there is no meaningful constituency for democracy in the Arab/Muslim universe. True, the killers and crooks cloaked in clerical robes and tribal constumes, business suits and army uniforms may feel a modern-day need to appropriate the trappings and terms of democracy--an Islamic republic here, an Arab republic there, pretend parliaments nearly everywhere (excluding medieval Saudi Arabia, naturally, which feels no need to even make believe or play at democracy)--but it's all a charade, as anyone with even the slightest experience or degree of familiarity with these leaders well knows. They are despotic and corrupt to the core. Rule of law and freedom of assembly and expression are alien, terrifying concepts. The rulers understand and appreciate and are experts at using bribery and brute force--the carrot and the stick--secret bank accounts and secret police. Secrecy, not transparency, above all.

Ironically, in the Arab/Muslim universe, the people who most detest democracy are the ones who promote it--up to a point. As shown by the Gazastan disaster, which the United States and Europe were instrumental in creating with the complicity of a weakened Israel, Islamists push for elections in order to attain power and impose Islamist rule. One person, one vote, one time, or, as in the case of Iran, more than one time, provided the purpose of the voting is to choose between Islamist candidates.

How and why the US under President George W. Bush came to believe that it could remake the Middle East along democratic lines is a topic that future historians will analyze and debate for many years to come. Assuming, of course, that there are still historians ... for the enemy that attacked the US on 9/11 aims for nothing less than the end of civilzation as we know it.

One can only hope that there is still time for the US to correct its colossal blunder--i.e. the Bush administration's strategic decision to avoid an all-out war against Islamism after the Islamist mega-attacks in favor of a "war on terror," and a counterproductive (excuse the expression) ... crusade ... for "freedom" and invasion of a mass-murdering, but contained, secular Arab dictatorship.

The thought that it could be too late for the US to change course is simply too awful to entertain. The West must win the war against Islamism. Quickly. Because time works for the enemy, which grows stronger and closer to controlling nuclear weapons with the passing of each month.

As the Israelis say, ein breira--there is no alternative--to victory.

• Rumor: Brzezinski Urging Carter to Shield Iran
• Obama Getting Advice from Brzezinski
• US Bows to China Over N. Korea and Taiwan
• Syria's North Korea-Supplied Nuclear Surprise

 

INTELIGÊNCIA DOS NEGÓCIOS

A CA Magazine,  "principale publication comptable au Canada", dedica o seu último número à "Intelligence d'Affaires". É um dossier que faz o ponto da situação em várias áreas, desde a vela estratégica aos software de ajuda à decisão, passando por questões essenciais da governança de empresa e pela análise de "fragilidades" e "vulnerabilidades" frequentes. Muito interessante. Aqui fica o registo:

...d'autres articles

DU MAGAZINE

Intelligence d'affaires

 

La veille stratégique, ou intelligence d'affaires, permet aux entreprises d'optimiser la gestion et l'utilisation de l'information et de favoriser la prise de décision éclairée à tous les niveaux des organisations.
...plus

 

TI : Dix enjeux à surveiller

Les connexions sans fil, les ressources et compétences en matière de TI et la confiance du public sont au nombre des enjeux sur lesquels la profession devra se concentrer au cours des douze prochains mois.
...plus

 

WEBEXTRA

 

Enquête 2007 sur les logiciels

Notre enquête annuelle sur les logiciels d'entreprise est de retour, plus riche que jamais. Cette année, nous avons regroupé plusieurs enquêtes (systèmes comptables et ERP, gestion de la relation client, veille stratégique / gestion de la performance et gestion automatisée des activités de services) en un seul numéro. En ce qui a trait aux systèmes comptables / ERP, vous pouvez utiliser notre tableau en ligne pour comparer jusqu'à quatre produits à la fois. Pour tout savoir sur le sujet, lisez Enquête 2007 sur les logiciels.
...plus

Rendre les portails Web moins déroutants

De plus en plus d'organisations encouragent leurs employés à utiliser les portails Web pour la gestion de leurs soins de santé et la planification de leur retraite. Mais elles ne leur facilitent pas la tâche car elles ne leur fournissent ni la technologie ni le contenu dont ils ont besoin pour s'y aventurer seuls.
...plus

 

Pleins feux sur la gouvernance des TI

La gouvernance d'entreprise ayant beaucoup retenu l'attention récemment, il n'est pas étonnant que l'on s'intéresse maintenant aux questions de gouvernance des technologies de l'information (TI). Compte tenu de notre utilisation croissante de la technologie, les organisations se voient maintenant de plus en plus forcées à s'assurer que leurs TI sont efficientes et efficaces.
...plus

LIONEL JOSPIN MERGULHA

O PS FRANCÊS NUM IMPASSE

Lionel Jospin, qual  espécie de fantasma, ataca de novo e mergulha o PS francês num ajuste de contas interno que inviabiliza a oposição a Sarkozy. O ataque dá-se sob a forma de livro a sair estes dias e antecipado, em largas passagens, pelo Liberation. O resultado é catastrófico: quando o PSF se preparava para organizar a sua ordem de marcha contra Sarkozy, cai-lhe em cima "L'Impasse" que desorienta por completo não só as tropas mas também os generais e lá se foi a ordem de batalha contra o governo... Sarkozy agradecerá certamente a Jospin.

Não deixa de ter graça o facto de um homem que foi derrotado por Le Pen, que não foi capaz de levar o PS à segunda das presidenciais de 2000 e assim provocou uma catastrófica situação em que os socialistas e o seu eleitorado tiveram de votar Jacques Chirac,  venha agora criticar Ségolène por ter perdido na segunda volta contra Sarkozy, acusando-a de ser "incapaz" de vencer. Ninguém lembra a este ex-infiltrado dos trotsquistas no PS, com o pseudónimo "Le Frisé", que Ségo chegou onde ele não foi capaz de chegar...?

Há já reacções interessantes a este impasse de Jospin, fazendo notar que " Lionel Jospin fait replonger le PS dans les bagarres internes": 

" Alors que les socialistes comptaient sur leur journée parlementaire lundi pour porter le fer contre Nicolas Sarkozy à l'aube d'une semaine sociale cruciale, la publication dans la presse d'extraits du brûlot anti-Royal de Lionel Jospin les a fait soudain replonger dans les bagarres internes et a partiellement éclipsé leur réunion.

La rentrée avait été marquée par une "chaude affection littéraire" -dixit Ségolène Royal- avec "La défaite en chantant" de Claude Allègre, "L'élection imperdable" de Claude Bartolone ou "Au revoir Royal" de Marie-Noëlle Lienemann. Lundi, "Libération" a publié des extraits du nouvel ouvrage signé Lionel Jospin, "L'Impasse" (Flammarion, sortie le 24 septembre).

Pas tendre, l'ancien Premier ministre y somme les socialistes d'empêcher Ségolène Royal de s'emparer du PS lors du congrès prévu en 2008 ou d'être à nouveau candidate en 2012. "Avoir commis une erreur ne justifie pas qu'on la réitère", exhorte-t-il, présentant l'ancienne candidate comme "une figure seconde de la vie publique" qui n'était "pas taillée pour le rôle".

Du "sexisme" qui "s'apparente au racisme", a réagi l'intéressée depuis le Québec. "J'ai l'impression en lisant tous ces ouvrages que si j'étais Jeanne d'Arc, j'aurais déjà été brûlée vive", a-t-elle déclaré, assurant être "bien là". "Au fond, ce qui me vient à l'esprit c'est cette parole de la Bible: 'pardonnez-leur parce qu'ils ne savent pas ce qu'ils font'. Donc, je pardonne à tous ceux qui m'agressent."

Reste que les extraits du livre de Jospin, nouveau pavé dans la mare socialiste, ont fait soudain replonger le parti convalescent dans les querelles internes, dont il avait semblé avoir tourné la page lors de son université d'été de La Rochelle à la fin de l'été. Ces extraits ont, de fait, partiellement éclipsé les travaux de la journée parlementaire du PS, qui réunissait lundi ses députés, sénateurs et eurodéputés à la Maison de la chimie, à Paris, à la veille de l'ouverture de la session extraordinaire du Parlement.

"On vous rappelle qu'il faut éteindre les portables et refermer le bouquin de Jospin", ironisait un dessin humoristique projeté dans l'auditorium aux rangs clairsemés où se tenait la réunion des parlementaires socialistes.

En l'absence de Ségolène Royal, au Québec et plus députée, ses proches sont montés au créneau en mettant le "fiel" de Lionel Jospin sur le compte de "l'aigreur". "Ce que Jospin a pu dire se résume malheureusement à un seul mot: l'aigritude", a ironisé Gaëtan Gorce. Ancien directeur de campagne de Ségolène Royal, Jean-Louis Bianco a invité le candidat malheureux de 2002 à l'autocritique: "Quand on songe quand même au résultat de 2002, ça doit inciter à un peu de modestie".

Lionel Jospin "ne s'en prend pas à une personne", mais au choix fait par les militants en novembre 2006 d'investir Ségolène Royal, a rectifié Daniel Vaillant, proche de l'ancien Premier ministre. "L'épreuve de 2007 aurait sûrement pu être évitée si un autre choix avait été fait par les militants", a exposé l'ancien ministre de l'Intérieur.

Franchement agacé que l'opposition à Nicolas Sarkozy soit partiellement occultée, François Hollande a mis le hola en appelant les socialistes à sortir des "règlements de comptes" et à ne pas rester "tournés vers le passé". "Je veux qu'en ce moment, lorsque les Français vivent des questions aussi difficiles que celles du pouvoir d'achat, des services publics, des retraites, on puisse, nous les socialistes, ensemble, être utiles dans l'opposition et préparer l'avenir", a-t-il tancé.

"Si tous les mois on remet un euro dans la machine, on ne va pas s'en sortir", a renchéri le porte-parole Benoît Hamon. La rénovation, "ce ne sont pas de petits règlements de comptes entre amis ou des amertumes que l'on ressasse", a appuyé le chef des députés PS Jean-Marc Ayrault. "C'est un non-sujet", a soupiré Jean-Christophe Cambadélis. Interrogé, Laurent Fabius a éludé."

DALAI LAMA EM PORTUGAL

OU O EXEMPLO DA ESQUIVA

A passagem do Dalai Lama por Portugal não foi, de certeza, um momento brilhante da actuação do governo português, mas foi, talvez, um momento gerido com inteligência por uma pequena potência europeia, de economia totalmente aberta e com uma presença histórica e interesses estratégicos a defender na Ásia (mesmo que às vezes o esqueça). A "esquiva" é um dos componentes ontológicos da matriz e do modo portugueses de estratégia, próprio de quem está há muito habituado a enfrentar e, frequentemente, ganhar situações e desafios marcados por uma forte assimetria desfavorável.

A própria sobrevivência do estado português, ao longo dos séculos e num quadro fortemente assimétrico desfavorável, é disso exemplo. E isto "fabrica" uma forma de olhar a realidade, o mundo e o outro... Outro elemento constitutivo da estratégia concebida em português é a "manha", que vai do uso estrutural (e não meramente pontual) da desinformação e da contra-informação a sofisticadas formas de "intelligence" e operações especiais não assumidas nem assinadas. Ninguém foi tão mestre nessa arte como D. João II e ninguém o soube expressar tão bem como o Princípe Perfeito: "há tempos de coruja e tempos de falcão"... Estamos a falar de posições e pensamento de Estado.

Lamentavelmente, as universidades portuguesas (ISCSP incluído) ignoram este tema e dedicam-se às traduções sebenteiras de outros modos de estratégia que são totalmente ou em grande parte estranhos ao ser e à história de Portugal nesta matéria. É tempo de começar a estudar a sério esta matéria, mesmo para poder colocar em perspectiva acontecimentos como este da visita do Dalai Lama e poder fazer uma leitura inteligente e proficua.

Outra coisa é conhecer os problemas, estar bem informado e ter liberdade de informação e de expressão. No  "Conquilhas", Tomáz Vasques  faz uma boa síntese da questão e ironiza sobre certos angelismos que por aí, muito frequentemente, se manifestam: "A «revolução proletária" saída da barriga do «modo de produção asiático», em 1949, associada à experiência negativa do modelo soviético, está na origem de novos conceitos «marxistas» produzidos pelos dirigentes do partido comunista chinês, algo que ninguém quer encarar na sua real dimensão teórica e prática: adicionar o «melhor» da prática marxista (o partido único, a ausência de liberdades e de democracia, de sindicatos, partidos, comunicação social e outras «minudências) ao «melhor» do capitalismo na versão dos primórdios desavergonhados da revolução industrial (trabalho infantil, 16 horas de trabalho diário, e por aí fora). Esta é uma combinação explosiva, acreditem. O Presidente da República e o Primeiro-Ministro, em Portugal, ignorarem o Dalai Lama é apenas um sinal insignificante. O PCP, sempre atento, também sabe da poda. Enquanto isto se passa, a «blogosfera» participa, em regra, no jogo: concentra-se no acessório - em Cuba e na Coreia do Norte - , e despreza o essêncial - a República Popular da China. Todo o mundo vai, cada um a seu modo, metendo a cabeça debaixo da areia. Não esqueçam: «o Oriente é vermelho, o ocidente o será».

Aqui, no CLARO, sempre defendemos a causa tibetana, sempre estivemos com a "International Campaign for Tibet", porque é preciso Salvar o Tibete. Não confundimos isso é com as posições políticas de Estado...

Ronaldo: olhem-lhe bem para as mãos e não para os pés... O puto sabe-a toda!

 

Fotos via "Conquilhas" (das melhores, das da Ria Formosa...)

“Para ter sucesso neste mundo,

não basta ser estúpido, é preciso

também ter boas maneiras…”

Voltaire, pseud. de François-Marie Arouet,

citado por  Semanada da  Vida das Coisas, suponho que depois de muita inspiração da chamada vida nacional, ou como, depois de ter citado o pai do comissaire San A., um clássico sucede a outro que (embora de outro tipo) é igualmente fascinante. Note-se ainda que la Suísse é comum aos dois mas só um deles (não digo qual) tinha "nove irmãs" em França...

.

Voltaire destilava uma ironia assassina sobre aquele século XVIII francês ainda ancien régime. Depois disso, em França muito sangue correu sob e sobre as pontes pelo que a fórmula hoje está desadequada e não garante por lá qualquer sucesso à personne. O olhar certeiro do Rui detectou-lhe, porém, perenidade por estas terras marcadas pela peçonha salazarenta ou como dizia, há poucos meses, um certo banqueiro meio-anarquista “em Portugal, ainda se julga que a cultura é dizer asneiras com distinção e que a distinção é o afivelar de um ar afectado”. 

.

 Foi um tiro em cheio, Rui… muito bem servido este Voltaire!

PUTIN EM TEHERÃO E PONTO

DE SITUAÇÃO GERAL DO JOGO

Nas vésperas da visita de Putin ao Irão, a Stratfor avalia o tabuleiro do jogo, as forças em presença e as suas relações, numa perspectiva dinâmica:

Red October: Russia, Iran and Iraq

By George Friedman

The course of the war in Iraq appears to be set for the next year. Of the four options we laid out a few weeks ago, the Bush administration essentially has selected a course between the first and second options -- maintaining the current mission and force level or retaining the mission but gradually reducing the force. The mission -- creating a stable, pro-American government in Baghdad that can assume the role of ensuring security -- remains intact. The strategy is to use the maximum available force to provide security until the Iraqis can assume the burden. The force will be reduced by the 30,000 troops who were surged into Iraq, though because that level of force will be unavailable by spring, the reduction is not really a matter of choice. The remaining force is the maximum available, and it will be reduced as circumstances permit.

Top U.S. commander in Iraq Gen. David Petraeus and others have made two broad arguments. First, while prior strategy indeed failed to make progress, a new strategy that combines aggressive security operations with recruiting political leaders on the subnational level -- the Sunni sheikhs in Anbar province, for example -- has had a positive impact, and could achieve the mission, given more time. Therefore, having spent treasure and blood to this point, it would be foolish for the United States not to pursue it for another year or two.

The second argument addresses the consequence of withdrawal. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice summed it up in an interview with NBC News. "And I would note that President [Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad said if the United States leaves Iraq, Iran is prepared to fill the vacuum. That is what is at stake here," she said. We had suggested that the best way to contain Iran would be to cede Iraq and defend the Arabian Peninsula. One reason is that it would release troops for operations elsewhere in the world, if needed. The administration has chosen to try to keep Iraq -- any part of it -- out of Iranian hands. If successful, this obviously benefits the United States. If it fails, the United States can always choose a different option.

Within the region, this seems a reasonable choice, assuming the political foundations in Washington can be maintained, foundations that so far appear to be holding. The Achilles' heel of the strategy is the fact that it includes the window of vulnerability that we discussed a few weeks ago. The strategy and mission outlined by Petraeus commits virtually all U.S. ground forces to Iraq, with Afghanistan and South Korea soaking up the rest. It leaves air and naval power available, but it does not allow the United States to deal with any other crisis that involves the significant threat of ground intervention. This has consequences.

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki attended a meeting of the Iranian-Russian Joint Economic Commission in Moscow over the weekend. While in the Russian capital, Mottaki also met with Russian Atomic Energy Chief Sergei Kiriyenko to discuss Russian assistance in completing the Bushehr nuclear power plant. After the meeting, Mottaki said Russian officials had assured him of their commitment to complete the power plant. Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, said, "With regards to the Bushehr power plant, we have reached good understanding with the Russians. In this understanding a timetable for providing nuclear fuel on time and inaugurating this power plant has been fixed." While the truth of Russian assurances is questionable -- Moscow has been mere weeks away from making Bushehr operational for the better part of the last three years, and is about as excited about a nuclear-armed Iran as is Washington -- the fact remains that Russian-Iranian cooperation continues to be substantial, and public.

Mottaki also confirmed -- and this is significant -- that Russian President Vladimir Putin would visit Tehran on Oct. 16. The occasion is a meeting of the Caspian Sea littoral nations, a group that comprises Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. According to the Iranians, Putin agreed not only to attend the conference, but also to use the visit to confer with top Iranian leaders.

This is about the last thing the United States wanted the Russians to do -- and therefore the first thing the Russians did. The Russians are quite pleased with the current situation in Iraq and Iran and do not want anything to upset it. From the Russian point of view, the Americans are tied down in an extended conflict that sucks up resources and strategic bandwidth in Washington. There is a similarity here with Vietnam. The more tied down U.S. forces were in Vietnam, the more opportunities the Soviets had. Nowadays, Russia's resources are much diminished compared with those of the Soviets -- while Russia has a much smaller range of interest. Moscow's primary goal is to regain a sphere of influence within the former Soviet Union. Whatever ambitions it may dream of, this is the starting point. The Russians see the Americans as trying to thwart their ambitions throughout their periphery, through support for anti-Russian elements via U.S. intelligence.

If the United States plans to stay in Iraq until the end of the Bush presidency, then the United States badly needs something from the Russians -- that they not provide arms, particularly air-defense systems, to the Syrians and especially the Iranians. The Americans need the Russians not to provide fighter aircraft, modern command-and-control systems or any of the other war-making systems that the Russians have been developing. Above all else, they want the Russians not to provide the Iranians any nuclear-linked technology.

Therefore, it is no accident that the Iranians claimed over the weekend that the Russians told them they would do precisely that. Obviously, the discussion was of a purely civilian nature, but the United States is aware that the Russians have advanced military nuclear technology and that the distinction between civilian and military is subtle. In short, Russia has signaled the Americans that it could very easily trigger their worst nightmare.

The Iranians, fairly isolated in the world, are being warned even by the French that war is a real possibility. Obviously, then, they view the meetings with the Russians as being of enormous value. The Russians have no interest in seeing Iran devastated by the United States. They want Iran to do just what it is doing -- tying down U.S. forces in Iraq and providing a strategic quagmire for the Americans. And they are aware that they have technologies that would make an extended air campaign against Iran much more costly than it would be otherwise. Indeed, without a U.S. ground force capable of exploiting an air attack anyway, the Russians might be able to create a situation in which suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD, the first stage of a U.S. air campaign) would be costly, and in which the second phase -- battle against infrastructure -- could become a war of attrition. The United States might win, in the sense of ultimately having command of the air, but it could not force a regime change -- and it would pay a high price.

It also should not be forgotten that the Russians have the second-largest nuclear arsenal in the world. The Russians very ostentatiously announced a few weeks ago that their Bear bombers were returning to constant patrol. This amused some in the U.S. military, who correctly regard the Bear as obsolete. They forget that the Russians never really had a bomber force designed for massive intercontinental delivery of nuclear devices. The announcement was a gesture -- and reminder that Russian ICBMs could easily be pointed at the United States.

Russia obviously doesn't plan a nuclear exchange with the United States, although it likes forcing the Americans to consider the possibility. Nor do the Russians want the Iranians to gain nuclear weapons. What they do want is an extended conflict in Iraq, extended tension between Iran and the United States, and they wouldn't much mind if the United States went to war with Iran as well. The Russians would happily supply the Iranians with whatever weapons systems they could use in order to bleed the United States a bit more, as long as they are reasonably confident that those systems would not be pointed north any time soon.

The Russians are just as prepared to let the United States have a free hand against Iran and not pose any challenges while U.S. forces are tied down in Iraq. But there is a price and it will be high. The Russians are aware that the window of opportunity is now and that they could create nightmarish problems for the United States. Therefore, the Russians will want the following:

In the Caucasus, they want the United States to withdraw support for Georgia and force the Georgian government to reach an accommodation with Moscow. Given Armenian hostility to Turkey and closeness to Russia, this would allow the Russians to reclaim a sphere of influence in the Caucasus, leaving Azerbaijan as a buffer with Iran.

In Ukraine and Belarus, the Russians will expect an end to all U.S. support to nongovernmental organizations agitating for a pro-Western course.

In the Baltics, the Russians will expect the United States to curb anti-Russian sentiment and to explicitly limit the Baltics' role in NATO, excluding the presence of foreign troops, particularly Polish.

Regarding Serbia, they want an end to any discussion of an independent Kosovo.

The Russians also will want plans abandoned for an anti-ballistic-missile system that deploys missiles in Poland.

In other words, the Russians will want the United States to get out of the former Soviet Union -- and stay out. Alternatively, the Russians are prepared, on Oct. 16, to reach agreements on nuclear exchange and weapons transfers that will include weapons that the Iranians can easily send into Iraq to kill U.S. troops. Should the United States initiate an air campaign prior to any of this taking effect, the Russians will increase the supply of weapons to Iran dramatically, using means it used effectively in Vietnam: shipping them in. If the United States strikes against Russian ships, the Russians will then be free to strike directly against Georgia or the Baltic states, countries that cannot defend themselves without American support, and countries that the United States is in no position to support.

It is increasingly clear that Putin intends to reverse in practice, if not formally, the consequences of the fall of the Soviet Union. He does not expect at this point to move back into Central Europe or engage in a global competition with the United States. He knows that is impossible. But he also understands three things: First, his armed forces have improved dramatically since 2000. Second, the countries he is dealing with are no match for his forces as long as the United States stays out. Third, staying out or not really is not a choice for the United States. As long as it maintains this posture in Iraq, it is out.

This is Putin's moment and he can exploit it in one of two ways: He can reach a quiet accommodation with the Americans, and leave the Iranians hanging. Conversely, he can align with the Iranians and place the United States in a far more complex situation than it otherwise would be in. He could achieve this by supporting Syria, arming militias in Lebanon or even causing significant problems in Afghanistan, where Russia retains a degree of influence in the North.

The Russians are chess players and geopoliticians. In chess and geopolitics, the game is routine and then, suddenly, there is an opening. You seize the opening because you might never get another one. The United States is inherently more powerful than Russia, save at this particular moment. Because of a series of choices the United States has made, it is weaker in the places that matter to Russia. Russia will not be in this position in two or three years. It needs to act now.

Therefore, Putin will go to Iran on Oct. 16 and will work to complete Iran's civilian nuclear project. What agreements he might reach with Iran could given the United States nightmares. If the United States takes out Iran's nuclear weapons, the Russians will sympathize and arm the Iranians even more intensely. If the Americans launch an extended air campaign, the Russians will happily increase the supply of weapons even more. Talk about carpet-bombing Iran is silly. It is a big country and the United States doesn't have that much carpet. The supplies would get through.

Or the United States can quietly give Putin the sphere of influence he wants, letting down allies in the former Soviet Union, in return for which the Russians will let the Iranians stand alone against the Americans, not give arms to Middle Eastern countries, not ship Iran weapons that will wind up with militias in Iraq. In effect, Putin is giving the United States a month to let him know what it has in mind.

It should not be forgotten that Iran retains an option that could upset Russian plans. Iran has no great trust of Russia, nor does it have a desire to be trapped between American power and Russian willingness to hold Iran's coat while it slugs things out with the Americans. At a certain point, sooner rather than later, the Iranians must examine whether they want to play the role of the Russian cape to the American bull. The option for the Iranians remains the same -- negotiate the future of Iraq with the Americans. If the United States is committed to remaining in Iraq, Iran can choose to undermine Washington, at the cost of increasing its own dependence on the Russians and the possibility of war with the Americans. Or it can choose to cut a deal with the Americans that gives it influence in Iraq without domination. Iran is delighted with Putin's visit. But that visit also gives it negotiating leverage with the Americans. This remains the wild card.

Petraeus' area of operations is Iraq. He may well have crafted a viable plan for stabilizing Iraq over the next few years. But the price to be paid for that is not in Iraq or even in Iran. It is in leaving the door wide open in other areas of the world. We believe the Russians are about to walk through one of those doors. The question in the White House, therefore, must be: How much is Iraq worth? Is it worth recreating the geopolitical foundations of the Soviet Union?"

DEPOIS DA BARBEARIA DO SR. LUÍS,

APARECE O CAFÉ DO SR. PERDIGÃO !

Bem me parecia que ele andava aí, sem dar cavaco a ninguém, a preparar alguma... E andava mesmo. Mas, este fim de semana, dissipei todas as dúvidas. Encontrei. Eureka, como dizia o grego velho. E para que não restem a ninguém quaisquer dúvidas aqui ficam as provas, em forma de fotografias. Prova A e prova B... Pelo menos, podia ter tido uma atitude semelhante à do sr. Luís da Barbearia. Podia ter avisado os amigos, como o sr. Luís fez. Não precisava de oferecer borlas, como o sr. Luís também não ofereceu, mas avisava. Assim, nem precisavamos de andar aí a tentar saber que diabo andaria o menino a fazer e sempre poderíamos ir lá beber uma bica...

Oh, Rui, francamente, só agora é que se percebe o que querias dizer com aquela do "crescer água na boca com a receitazinha dos Rojões de Porco cozinhados na frigideira nova"... Grande malandro ! Enfim, é  a vida das coisas... mas vê lá se mandas afinar bem a máquina das bicas. A barbearia do sr. Luís está um brinquinho, vê lá tu se o café, além da máquina, afina o serviço. E manda notícias que o pessoal merece. Ah, e deixa que te diga que gostei muito da escultura, da esplanada, em granito e metal. Esta à direita na primeira fotografia... A cama já merecia uma homenagem assim!

"Máfia dos bingos"

"a Somague do PS", diz o Jumento  ou como alguns, sem o saber, vão abrindo caminho ao "Sidonismo" e enterrando este regime...

Tal como sucedeu no caso Somague também no processo "máfia dos bingos" investigada pela polícia brasileira se assiste a uma mancha de nevoeiro. A omertà à portuguesa volta a intervir, uns não aproveitaram o caso Somague e, em contrapartida, os outros não mexem muito no processo brasileiro. (...) O PS não precisa de esperar pelo resultado das investigações para assumir as suas responsabilidades políticas, esse processo não visa nem o PS nem avaliar se os seus responsáveis respeitaram os valores éticos que deles se espera. Ora, pelo que se sabe há gente no PS sem lugar numa democracia europeia, ocupam altos cargos e estão a ser protegidos."  Continua   Aqui

   O Jumento, às 12:35 | links para este post | (5) Coices | Trackback | Permalink

CADA PARTIDO TEM A SUA "SOMAGUE"

«A Polícia Judiciária está a investigar o presumível envolvimento de elementos do PS com a chamada "máfia dos bingos" do Brasil. O grupo, desmantelado com a Operação Furacão, é acusado de comprar sentenças judiciais e decisões políticas para a expansão do negócio do jogo clandestino. O coordenador do gabinete de comunicação da Polícia Federal (PF), Bruno Ramos, disse ao PÚBLICO que, no âmbito desta acção, foi solicitada "uma cooperação judicial e policial directa" a Portugal para averiguar o "eventual envolvimento de portugueses e alguns elementos ligados ao Partido Socialista" com o caso. A própria Polícia Federal já esteve em Portugal a recolher elementos sobre as ligações entre empresários e políticos portugueses com o grupo detido em Abril deste ano.» [Público assinantes]

PC: DERIVA "AVANTE" E

TENDÊNCIA "PIZZA HUT"

O mundo já não é como era... O "DN" mostrava há dias como os comunas, na sua anual festança já comem fatias de piza da Pizza Hut e pedacinhos de frango do KFC. Só falta mesmo apanhá-lhos a beber coca-cola, essa "água suja do imperialismo"! Esperemos, ao menos, que o Berloc, esse filho do trotsquismo transgénico, não vá por aí ou é a desonra definitiva dessa família toda!

Ah, meus amigos, a deriva tomou conta deles... Caso para berrar em manif: "Assim se vê / a deriva do PC"!

Bernard Kouchner Avisa:

"PREPAREMO-NOS PARA O PIOR,

COM O IRÃO, OU SEJA, A GUERRA"

Dimanche, le ministre des Affaires étrangères français Bernard Kouchner, a estimé que le monde devait se "préparer au pire", c'est à dire à la possibilité d'une "guerre" avec l'Iran. Il a demandé des sanctions européennes, tout en appelant à "négocier jusqu'au bout" pour éviter que Téhéran ne se dote de l'arme atomique.

Le ministre des Affaires étrangères Bernard Kouchner sur le plateau du Grand Jury RTL/Le Figaro/LCI, le 16 septembre 2007. Photographe : Stéphane Ruet.   © AFP, le 17-09-2007

 Mais Aqui  e  Aqui

Podcast da Stratfor :

 
O suspeito da morte do chefe Martins, da PSP de Lagos, poderá sair da cadeia nos próximos dias.

A saída das cadeias de acusados e suspeitos da morte de polícias devido à redução dos prazos de prisão preventiva imposta pelo novo Código de Processo Penal (CPP) provoca a indignação e revolta dos agentes da ordem. A 1 de Outubro haverá uma concentração de polícias frente ao Pavilhão Atlântico.

A manifestação que uniu as oito plataformas associativas resulta do descontentamento com as novas condições laborais, mas os polícias estão também "indignados" com o novo CPP, disse António Ramos, presidente dos Sindicato de Profissionais de Polícia. "Não nos podemos esquecer de que os que agora podem ser postos em liberdade são altamente cadastrados e mataram a sangue-frio os nossos camaradas", acrescentou António Ramos.

A estrutura sindical irá reunir-se esta semana para debater a falta de formação profissional necessária com a entrada em vigor do novo Código. Também Paulo Rodrigues, da Associação Sindical dos Profissionais da Polícia, está indignado com as possíveis libertações e remete para hoje uma posição.

HOMICIDA NA RUA

Um dos casos que mais revolta os polícias é o de Florentino, o presumível atirador que matou o chefe Sérgio Martins, da PSP de Lagos. Foi detido em Janeiro de 2006 e, juntamente com os restantes seis elementos do gang do Pecas, começa a ser julgado na quarta-feira.

O seu advogado admite pedir hoje a extinção da prisão preventiva ao abrigo do novo Código – o arguido está em prisão preventiva há 21 meses e o artigo 215.º estipula um máximo de 18 meses para este crime violento.

O chefe na PSP de Lagos, Sérgio Martins, 49 anos, foi abatido por um tiro na cabeça, provavelmente de caçadeira, na primeira rotunda do Nó de Lagos da Via do Infante. O disparo foi efectuado a apenas três ou quatro metros de distância. A vítima comandava duas patrulhas que tentavam barrar o caminho aos dois carros em que fugia um gang de espanhóis após uma tentativa falhada de roubo da caixa multibanco no supermercado Ecomarché, em Budens, Vila do Bispo.

Outro caso que ontem revoltou a polícia foi a possibilidade de libertação de Marcus Fernandes, condenado a 25 anos de prisão pela morte de dois agentes da PSP e pela tentativa de homicídio de um terceiro.

"A JUSTIÇA NÃO PODE SER TÃO MEDÍOCRE"

A hipótese de o cabo António Costa – condenado a 25 anos de prisão por ter assassinado três jovens – poder beneficiar com o novo Código de Processo Penal e assim sair da cadeia brevemente revoltou a população de Santa Comba Dão. O cabo pode ser libertado em Junho de 2008 porque é considerado preso preventivo enquanto a sentença não transitar em julgado e houver recursos pendentes.

Os populares acreditam que os tribunais "não vão fazer essa maldade". "Eu acho que a Justiça não pode ser tão medíocre. Acredito que a questão vai ser resolvida a tempo de forma a que esse homem não saia da cadeia tão cedo", opina Luís Gomes, tio da Mariana, uma das vítimas do ex-guarda. "Se ele vier cá para fora, alguém vai substituir a Justiça". Também Isabel Oliveira, mãe de Joana – a última vítima – ficou "revoltada". Quando soube da notícia, teve uma "crise de choro". "Como é possível?", interroga-se, criticando o ministro da Justiça: "Eu queria ver como é que ele [o ministro] se sentia se fosse com a sua família", diz Isabel Oliveira.

João Pereira, advogado de uma das vítimas, reconhece essa possibilidade, mas diz que tal pode não vir a acontecer porque o requerimento de contestação à sentença "foi entregue dois minutos depois do prazo legal". Os populares de Santa Comba Dão nem querem ouvir falar da libertação. "Será um escândalo", diz Francisco Regadas.

"PARLAMENTO MATOU A INVESTIGAÇÃO":

Carlos Anjos, presidente da Associação Sindical dos Funcionários de Investigação Criminal

Correio da Manhã – Com o novo Código os prazos de investigação serão de seis meses pa-ra crimes simples e de oito meses para a criminalidade organizada. É suficiente?

Carlos Anjos – Não. A Assembleia da República matou a investigação. Ao aprovar o Código não teve em conta que uma perícia de laboratório demora em média nove meses e uma financeira quatro meses. No caso Freeport estamos à espera há dois anos de informações do Reino Unido e no chamado caso João Pinto esperamos há oito meses uma resposta do Luxemburgo.

– Terminado esse prazo o que acontece?

– O arguido, detido ou solto, pode consultar a investigação realizada pela Polícia Judiciária e isso arruina o nosso trabalho. O advogado do arguido pode ainda realizar diligencias, como pedir uma carta rogatória no estrangeiro – cuja resposta sabe que vai demorar meses a obter – para fazer com que os autos acabem por ser arquivados. Isto dá cabo de toda a investigação.

– Não possuem mais meios para uma maior rapidez?

– O ministro da Justiça prometeu a contratação de 50 peritos, mas até agora ainda não foi colocada a lista de candidatos.

– Haverá mais crime?

– Com a entrada em vigor meteram na rua criminosos.

– Nos outros países não há um procedimento idêntico?

– Na maioria dos países conhecida a sentença o arguido é preso e termina a prisão preventiva. Só em Portugal a preventiva continua até a sentença transitar em julgado.

MORTOS À QUEIMA ROUPA

Paulo Alves, de 23 anos, e António Abrantes, de 30, estavam ao serviço da PSP da Amadora quando foram mortos a tiro em Março de 2005. Marcus Fernandes disparou 36 tiros por uma Glock. Foi condenado a 25 anos de prisão, mas ainda é considerado preso preventivo.

MARGARIDA MARANTE FALA EM "DIMINUIÇÃO DA SEGURANÇA"

A jornalista Margarida Marante disse ao CM sentir "uma diminuição da noção de segurança" com a saída da cadeia de Francisco Farinha Simões, que está ser julgado à porta fechada no Tribunal da Boa-Hora pelos crimes de coacção, sequestro e ameaça contra a jornalista. Detido a 28 de Janeiro de 2006, Farinha Simões foi colocado em liberdade no sábado, expirado o prazo de prisão preventiva, ao abrigo das alterações ao Código de Processo Penal. Informada da libertação do arguido, a jornalista acrescentou que não pode avançar mais comentários porque o processo está em fase de julgamento. Segundo o CM apurou, as alegações finais estão marcadas para o fim deste mês, devendo a sentença ser conhecida o mais tardar em Outubro.

TRABALHO SEM LIMITES

Com a entrada em vigor do Código do Processo Penal 15 dias após a sua publicação, Rui Cardoso, membro da direcção do Sindicato dos Magistrados do Ministério Público, defende que "a segurança da comunidade foi colocada em causa sem necessidade". "O período razoável seria, não 15 dias, mas cinco a seis meses", disse. A mudança repentina levou magistrados e juízes a trabalharem em contra-relógio para impedirem um maior número de libertações.

VIOLADORES EM LIBERDADE

Três homens condenados por crimes de violação e roubo já foram libertados. O juiz da Segunda Vara Criminal de Sintra assinou as ordens de libertação destes homens condenados a 10, 12 e 14 anos porque todos tinham interposto recurso, pelo que estavam detidos na condição de presos preventivos. O novo Código de Processo Penal refere que não podem ficar em preventiva mais de dois anos. Estavam detidos há dois anos e dois meses.

NOTAS

CORREIO DA MANHÃ AVISOU

O Correio da Manhã lançou o aviso em primeira mão na sua manchete de dia 4: a partir de 15 de Setembro 246 detidos em prisão preventiva sairiam em liberdade com a entrada em vigor do novo Código de Processo Penal

MAIS TRABALHO NA RELAÇÃO

A possibilidade de presos preventivos condenados por crimes graves serem postos em liberdade levou tribunais de Relação a analisarem maior número de processos. "Estamos atentos a alterações", disse o presidente da Relação, Vaz das Neves

JUSTIÇA DESCONHECE SAÍDAS

Não é conhecido o número de quantos mais presos preventivos serão soltos nos próximos dias, segundo fonte do Ministério da Justiça. No sábado foi divulgado que 115 foram soltos. Estimativas iniciais indicavam um total de 246

SKINHEAD EM LIBERDADE

Mário Machado, líder do movimento skinhead em Portugal, pode ser um dos beneficiados pelas novas regras do Código de Processo Penal, por estar em prisão preventiva desde 18 de Abril. As novas regras estipulam a duração máxima de 4 meses

 

Não se entende a forma canhestra como este CPP entra em vigor. Não se entende tanta falta de sensibilidade política de Alberto Costa (tanto mais que ele na vida apenas foi político...). Não se entende tanta falta de jeito de um homem que anda há 45 anos só a fazer política, que teve um trânsito do PC para o PS e é um profissional da política.

O Chefe Martins, da PSP de Lagos, um homem bom e um bom profissional, não merecia isto! A revolta dos polícias é mais que justificada. E a indignação e temor dos cidadãos (mesmo se estes ainda não marcaram manisfestações) também...

 

Quem quer tramar José Sócrates...? De facto, a situação em que os seus amigos o colocam só não implica a sua perda imediata porque a oposição é inexistente... Caso para dizer que, com amigos destes...

BARRIL PASSOU OS 80 DÓLARES...

Foi ontem, como a AFP bem informou. O patamar dos 80 dólares/barril foi ultrapassado. Isto era um pouco como a estória do Barrosão: ia acontecer, só não se sabia o dia...Era mais que esperado, era sabido, mesmo. Comentários para quê?!

Le pétrole bat des records, dépasse 80 dollars le baril à New York
Le pétrole brut a atteint un record historique mercredi à New York, en dépassant 80 dollars le baril, la promesse de l'Opep de pomper un peu plus de brut n'ayant pas suffi à apaiser un marché préoccupé par la fonte des stocks mondiaux avant l'hiver.     la suite

Le pétrole au-dessus des 80 dollars le baril pour la 1re fois
Le baril de pétrole brut a dépassé à New York pour la 1re fois le seuil des 80 dollars, et a atteint 80,18 dollars, la promesse de l'Opep de pomper un peu plus de brut n'ayant pas suffi à apaiser un marché préoccupé par la fonte des stocks mondiaux avant l'hiver.     la suite

.

Convém igualmente seguir a evolução da curva dos preços das matérias-primas... Metais e cereais merecem particular atenção. Como hoje alerta a 18H.Com, "les records atteints par les cours des matières premières sont d'abord dus à la demande des pays émergents, Chine en tête. Attirés par l'appât du gain, fonds de pensions et hedge funds contribuent à l'accélération des prix. Explications. Lire >> 

A BARBEARIA DO SR. LUÍS  

JÁ FUNCIONA EM GRANDE

 

 

Já está em pleno funcionamento a mais recente, bem equipada e fina barbearia da blogos. Falamos da "Barbearia do Sr. Luís", estabelecimento de "cortes, depilações e coisas que tal", a quem queremos apresentar parabéns e votos de sucesso e longa vida.

 

Soubemos também, recentemente, que a gerência deste belo estabelecimento é apreciadora dos suculentos petiscos da Casa Velha. Mais uma manifestação de sabedoria e bom gosto. Por lá nos cruzaremos, provavelmente, um destes dias. E se ainda restar por lá alguma daquelas velhas garrafas de tinto da finada adega cooperativa...

 

Até lá, votos dos melhores sucessos e faça, sr. Luís, o favor de nos inscrever como clientes leais e fidelizados dessa magnífica casa com relógio de cuco e tudo.

 

 

PS - Uma pequena sugestão para o livro das ditas: quando tiver a adequada oportunidade e jeito, acrescente, àquela magnífica frigideira, uma bela cataplana de latão e verá o que é realmente a morte das formosas ameijoas. E se lhes acrescentar uns naquinhos de porco preto de bolota... Olhe, convide então aquele rapaz que lhe recomendou uns "cozinhados" e um "tacho novo", o pintor Perdigão!

 

PS 2 - E já agora se puder fazer o favorzinho de nos disponibilizar, por forma bastante discreta, é claro, o numerozinho de telemóvel dessa sua colaboradora que consta da foto... Para assunto sério e respeitador, no que tem a nossa palavra de honra, com certeza.

War, Psychology and Time

No sexto aniversário do "nine-eleven", a Stratfor divulga uma análise muito informada e interessada sobre o estado da situação, com a assinatura de George Friedman:

"There are moments in history when everything comes together. Today is the sixth anniversary of the al Qaeda attack against the United States. This is the week Gen. David Petraeus is reporting to Congress on the status of the war in Iraq. It also is the week Osama bin Laden made one of his rare video appearances. The world will not change this week, but the convergence of these strands makes it necessary to pause and take stock.

To do this, we must begin at the beginning. We do not mean Sept. 11, 2001, but the moment when bin Laden decided to stage the attack -- and the reasoning behind it. By understanding his motives, we can begin to measure his success. His motive was not, we believe, simply to kill Americans. That was a means to an end. Rather, as we and others have said before, it was to seize what he saw as a rare opportunity to begin the process of recreating a vast Islamic empire.

The rare opportunity was the fall of the Soviet Union. Until then, the Islamic world had been divided between Soviet and American spheres of influence. Indeed, the border of the Soviet Union ran through the Islamic world. The Cold War between the United States and Soviet Union created a tense paralysis in that world, with movement and change being measured in decades and inches. Suddenly, everything that was once certain became uncertain. One half of the power equation was gone, and the other half, the United States, was at a loss as to what it meant. Bin Laden looked at the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan and saw a historical opening.

His problem was that contrary to what has been discussed about terrorist organizations, they cannot create an empire. What they can do is seize a nation-state and utilize its power to begin shaping an empire. Bin Laden had Afghanistan, but he understood that its location and intrinsic power were insufficient for his needs. He could not hope to recreate the Islamic empire from Kabul or Kandahar. For bin Laden's strategy to work, he had to topple an important Muslim state and replace it with a true Islamist regime. There were several that would have done, but we suspect his eye was on Egypt. When Egypt moves, the Islamic world trembles. But that is a guess. A number of other regimes would have served the purpose.

In bin Laden's analysis, the strength of these regimes also was their weakness. They were all dependent on the United States for their survival. This fit in with bin Laden's broader analysis. The reason for Muslim weakness was that the Christian world -- the Crusaders, as he referred to them -- had imposed a series of regimes on Muslims and thereby divided and controlled them. Until these puppet regimes were overthrown, Muslims would be helpless in the face of Christians, in particular the current leading Christian power, the United States.

The root problem, as bin Laden saw it, was psychological. Muslims suffered from a psychology of defeat. They expected to be weaker than Christians and so they were. In spite of the defeat of the atheist Soviets in Afghanistan and the collapse of their regime, Muslims still did not understand two things -- that the Christians were inherently weak and corrupt, and that the United States was simply another Crusader nation and their enemy.

The 9/11 attack, as well as earlier attacks, was designed to do two things. First, by striking targets that were well-known among the Muslim masses, the attack was meant to demonstrate that the United States could be attacked and badly hurt. Second, it was designed to get a U.S. reaction -- and this is what bin Laden saw as the beauty of his plan: If Washington reacted by doing nothing effective, then he could argue that the United States was profoundly weak and indecisive. This would increase contempt for the United States. If, on the other hand, the United States staged a series of campaigns in the Islamic world, he would be able to say that this demonstrated that the United States was the true Crusader state and the enemy of Muslims everywhere. Bin Laden was looking for an intemperate move -- either the continued impotent responses to al Qaeda attacks in the 1990s or a drastic assault against Islam. Either one would have done.

For the American side, 9/11 did exactly what it was intended to do: generate terror. In our view, this was a wholly rational feeling. Anyone who was not frightened of what was coming next was out of touch with reality. Indeed, we are always amused when encountering friends who feel the United States vastly exaggerated the implications of four simultaneous plane hijacks that resulted in the world's worst terrorist attack and cost thousands of lives and billions in damage. Yet, six years on, the overwhelming and reasonable fear on the night of Sept. 11 has been erased and replaced by a strange sense that it was all an overreaction.

Al Qaeda was a global -- but sparse -- network. That meant that it could be anywhere and everywhere, and that searching for it was like looking for a needle in a haystack. But there was something else that disoriented the United States even more. Whether due to disruption by U.S. efforts or a lack of follow-on plans, al Qaeda never attacked the United States again after 9/11. Had it periodically attacked the United States, the ongoing sense of crisis would not have dissipated. But no attack has occurred, and over the years, actions and policies that appeared reasonable and proportionate in 2001 began to appear paranoid and excessive. A sense began to develop that the United States had overreacted to 9/11, or even that the Bush administration used 9/11 as an excuse for oppressive behavior.

Regardless of whether he was a one-trick pony or he did intend, but failed, to stage follow-on attacks, the lack of strikes since 9/11 has turned out to be less damaging to bin Laden than to the Bush administration.

Years of vigilance without an indisputable attack have led to a slow but systematic meltdown in the American consensus that was forged white hot on Sept. 11. On that day, it was generally conceded that defeating al Qaeda took precedence over all other considerations. It was agreed that this would be an extended covert war in which the use of any number of aggressive and unpleasant means would be necessary. It was believed that the next attack could come at any moment, and that preventing it was paramount.

Time reshapes our memory and displaces our fears from ourselves to others. For many, the fevered response to 9/11 is no longer "our" response, but "their" response, the response of the administration -- or more precisely, the overreaction of the administration that used 9/11 as an excuse to wage an unnecessary global war. The fears of that day are viewed as irrational and the responsibility of others. Regardless of whether it was intentional, the failure of al Qaeda to mount another successful attack against the United States in six years has made it appear that the reaction to 9/11 was overblown.

The Bush administration, however, felt it could not decline combat. It surged into the Islamic world, adopting one of the strategies bin Laden hoped it would. There were many reasons for this, but part of it was psychological. Bin Laden wanted to show that the United States was weak. Bush wanted to demonstrate that the United States was strong. The secretary of defense at the time, Donald Rumsfeld, used the term "shock and awe." That was precisely the sense the United States wanted to deliver to the Islamic world. It wanted to call bin Laden's bet -- and raise it.

That was more than four years ago. The sense of shock and awe, if it was ever there, is long gone. Rather than showing the Islamic world the overwhelming power of the United States, the United States is now engaged in a debate over whether there is some hope for its strategy. No one is arguing that the war has been a slam dunk. Whatever the complex reasons for invading Iraq, and we have addressed those in detail, time has completely undermined the psychological dimension of the strategy. Four years into the war, no one is shocked and no one is awed. The same, it should be added, is true about Afghanistan.

Time has hammered the Bush administration in two ways. In the first instance -- and this might actually be the result of the administration's success in stopping al Qaeda -- there has been no further attack against the United States. The justification for the administration's measures to combat al Qaeda, therefore, is wearing thin. For many, a state of emergency without any action simply does not work after six years. It is not because al Qaeda and others aren't out there. It is because time wears down the imagination, until the threat becomes a phantom.

Time also has worn down the Bush administration's war in Iraq. The Islamic world is not impressed. The American public doesn't see the point or the end. What was supposed to be a stunning demonstration of American power has been a demonstration of the limits of that power.

The paradox is this: There has been no follow-on attack against the United States. The United States did dislodge Saddam Hussein and the Taliban, and while the war goes badly, the casualties are a small fraction of those lost in Vietnam. Most important, bin Laden's dream is gone. No Muslim state has been overthrown and replaced with a regime that bin Laden would find worthy. He has been marginalized by both the United States and by his rival Shiite radicals, who have picked up the mantle that he dropped. His own jihadist movement is no longer under his effective control.

Bin Laden has been as badly battered by time as Bush. Unable to achieve any of his political goals, unable to mount another attack, he reminds us of Che Guevara after his death in Bolivia. He is a symbol of rebellion for a generation that does not intend to rebel and that carefully ignores his massive failures.

Yet, in the end, Guevara and bin Laden could have become important only if their revolutions had succeeded. There is much talk and much enthusiasm. There is no revolution. Therefore, what time has done to bin Laden's hopes is interesting, but in the end, as a geopolitical force, he has not counted beyond his image since Sept. 11, 2001.

The effect on the United States is much more profound. The war, both in Iraq and against al Qaeda, has worn the United States down over time. The psychology of fear has been replaced by a psychology of cynicism. The psychology of confidence in war has been replaced by a psychology of helplessness. Exhaustion pervades all.

That is the single most important outcome of the war. What happens to bin Laden is, in the end, about as important as what happened to Guevara. Legends will be made of it -- not history. But when the world's leading power falls into the psychological abyss brought about by time and war, the entire world is changed by it. Every country rethinks its position and its actions. Everything changes.

That is what is important about the Petraeus report. He will ask for more time. Congress will give it to him. The president will take it. Time, however, has its price not only in war but also psychologically. And if the request for time leads to more failure and the American psychology is further battered, then that is simply more time that other powers, great and small, will have to take advantage of the situation. The United States has psychologically begun tearing itself apart over both the war on terrorism and the war in Iraq. Whatever your view of that, it is a fact -- a serious geopolitical fact.

The Petraeus report will not address that. It is out of the general's area of responsibility. But the pressing issue is this: If the United States continues the war and if it maintains its vigilance against attacks, how does the evolution of the American psyche play out?"

EL CABRERO

canta Luz de Luna

José Domingo Munoz canta à luz da Lua ou... o Fado à maneira das serranias de Huelva. Das suas serranias do Andévalo. El Cabrero mostra-se um xamã do Andévalo, da montanha de Endovélico. Cantaor como nenhum outro, da Andalucia blanca y verde este homem vem do fundo dos tempos!

Como el viento de Poniente

El Cabrero na TVE 2

Teoria dos Azares Convenientes

O CLARO não resiste a reproduzir o aguçado e muito inteligente humor do Inteligência Competitiva

"Na linha da temática central deste blog, proponho uma primeira abordagem a uma teoria que apelidei de Teoria dos Azares Convenientes e que não é mais do que a aplicação da Inteligência Competitiva à problemática dos azares, em particular, de alguns azares muito convenientes:

Há azares e azares, mas os de mais sensível trato são aqueles que apelidaríamos de azares convenientes, nomeadamente e sobretudo, os azares convenientes para quem os tem e inconvenientes para quem, em virtude do azar alheio, fica prejudicado.

A conveniência do azar não é uma coisa abstracta, é, pelo contrário, uma ciência muito exacta que obedece a um cálculo muito rigoroso por parte de quem o tem. Um exemplo esclarecedor:

Está trânsito numa dada auto-estrada - isto pode ser facilmente constatável pelos serviços informativos -, o que faz com necessariamente cheguemos atrasados ao trabalho. Este poderá ser um azar conveniente se aproveitarmos para ainda ir tomar um café, sob a desculpa do trânsito, observável pelo prejudicado (o patrão), incapaz, face aos dados de que dispõe, de calcular o tempo que levaria o sujeito azarado a chegar ao trabalho sem desvios.

O exemplo dado é claro na delicadeza do assunto que nos propomos sumariamente teorizar e mais delicado se torna quando se torna mais complexo e estamos perante o que apelidaríamos de “sistema de azares convenientes”.

Chamamos a atenção para o facto de não nos referimos a azares inventados – isso é do domínio da mentira -, apenas nos referimos a azares reais, mas que acabam, em virtude da mera subtracção das desvantagens às vantagens, por se tornarem positivos (convenientes) para o azarado.

Todos nós já passámos por situações em que um azar se tornou conveniente e, certamente, muitas mais nos esperam no futuro, dado que os azares convenientes não são planeáveis, antes surgem com a oportunidade. “Há males que vêm por bem”, já teremos ouvido dizer, e também há azares.

A ausência de literatura sobre a matéria poderá ser compensada com a abundância de casos práticos que venham a permitir o enriquecimento desta teoria, ainda em fase de gestação.

Posted by André Gonçalves Nunes at Monday, September 10, 2007 "

SEXO, PORNOGRAFIA E PIRATAS

Ora, aqui está uma notícia para nos fazer sorrir...  Hoje, a 18H.Com noticia como a pirataria da net assusta a inocente gente do sexo industrial, do orgasmo liofilizado e mercantilizado:

  L'industrie pornographique s'inquiète du piratage

Après la RIAA pour la musique et la MPAA pour le cinéma, y aura-t-il bientôt un grand avocat pour défendre la pornographie légale et poursuivre les pirates ? C'est en tout cas une des idées émises par les représentants américains du secteur, qui se sont réunis la semaine dernière pour discuter du piratage de leurs contenus, rapporte Ars Technica. Ainsi, environ 5% des fichiers échangés sur BitTorrent seraient de nature pornographique. Et le manque à gagner représenterait 2 milliards de dollars par an, soit 4% d'une industrie qui pèse 50 milliards de dollars. Mais selon d'autres estimations plus alarmistes, la pornographie illégale représenterait au contraire 80 à 85% des contenus. LExpansion.com avec AFP

NEO-CONSERVADORES

Luís Nazaré dá o exemplo

a seguir pelos serviços públicos

Os CTT pedem desculpa pelos atrasos e pela deterioração da qualidade do serviço registada em 2006, segundo notícias dos últimos dias.

Uma decisão que é um caso exemplar de gestão. Exemplar mas, lamentavelmente, inédito e único. Que importa estender a toda a Administração Pública e todas as empresas públicas. Obrigatoriamente e muito rápidamente. De modo a que este caso exemplar deixe de ser inédito e único.

Obrigado, por este exemplo, Luís Nazaré.

É uma notícia do CM de hoje. Daquelas que se lêem e se esfregam os olhos para se ter a certeza que se está mesmo a ler bem: 

CHINA: ECONOMIA COM

UMA EVOLUÇÃO NEGATIVA

Hoje, na 18H.Com, duas notícias sobre a evolução da economia da China, a ler sabendo que as estatísticas chinesas não são certificadas por qualquer eurostat pelo que... são, na melhor das hipóteses, indicativas de grandes tendências:

6,5% - L'inflation chinoise au mois d'août, au plus haut depuis 10 ans

Les prix à la consommation ont continué de progresser à vive allure en Chine au mois d'août, avec un indice en hausse de 6,5% sur un an. Soit la plus Lire la suite >>

Les rappels de produits américains fabriqués en Chine ont triplé 

Les rappels de produits fabriqués en Chine pour des entreprises américaines a presque triplé au cours des trois derniers mois. L'affaire des jouets Mattel a notamment porté le montant des produits rappelés à 430 millions de dollars entre juin et août contre 152 millions de dollars un an auparavant. Depuis le début de l'année, la note monte à plus d'un milliard de dollars. Aux yeux des consommateurs américains, la Chine a reculé de la 36^e à la 37^e place quant à la confiance qu'ils accordent à la qualité de ses produits. Juste devant l'Indonésie. Les trois premières place restant occupées par l'Allemagne, le Japon et les Etats-Unis, selon l'index Anholt. "

nine eleven - 11 de setembro

"THE PATH TO 9/11"

Se outro mérito não tivesse (e tem...), "The Path to 09.11" tem o imenso mérito de prestar uma mais que justa e merecida homenagem à inteligência e coragem do Comandante Ahmed Sha Massoud, o afegão que venceu os soviéticos e soube casar o islão e a liberdade.

"...In 1998, journalist John Miller's interview with bin Laden is broadcast, and O'Neill and others in Washington are alarmed by the al Qaeda leader's fatwa against the U.S. CIA field agent "Kirk" contacts bin Laden's primary opposition, General Massoud of Afghanistan's Northern Alliance, and they concoct a plan to capture bin Laden and bring him to the U.S. to face justice. The plan is never approved for action, but the simultaneous bombings of two U.S. embassies in Africa push the Administration to respond with an ineffective missile strike that some think merely elevates bin Laden's stature in the Muslim world. Arrests of al Qaeda operatives at the Canadian-U.S. border and in New York on the eve of the millennium provide further evidence that Muslim extremists are bringing their holy war to America. (...)

"In 2001, counterterrorism czar Richard Clarke's warnings about bin Laden are downplayed, as is an FBI agent's warning to his superiors that some suspicious individuals are learning to fly jet aircraft. (...)

" Shortly thereafter, the Northern Alliance's Massoud, who had pressed the U.S. for assistance against the Taliban and warned that bin Laden might strike, is assassinated by al Qaeda agents. Two days later comes September 11, and O'Neill dies bravely, along with thousands of others, in an attack by the enemy he had devoted his career to thwarting.(...) "

Ahmad Shah Massoud - His Last Day

Vídeo sobre o último dia de trabalho do Leão do Panshir, o comandante Ahmad Shah Massoud. Horas depois, um comando da al-Qaeda, composto por terroristas marroquinos de Bruxelas, conseguia assassinar Massoud num atentado suícida. Estava-se na noite de 9 de Setembro de 2001... O atentado das Twin Towers podia avançar.

Remember Massoud

GUERRA DO TERRORISMO

SOBRE A IDIOTICE E A MÁ-FÉ

QUE IMPEDEM DE RACIOCINAR

Das pobres pin-ups do Berloco a outros bonzos de esquerda, passando por fundamentalistas da direita troglodita, tudo reza o mesmo credo: depois do 11 de Setembro (do Irak, do Afeganistão...), o mundo está menos seguro.

É um facto, o planeta está menos seguro. Mas estou farto de o ouvir, dito com um enquadramento idiota e, simultaneamente, de má fé.

O mundo está menos seguro não porque há uma “guerra ao terrorismo”, conduzida melhor ou pior por Bush e Blair, mas porque há terrorismo! E porque há uma “guerra do terrorismo”, que foi “declarada” a 11 de Setembro 2001.