Hoje, 25 de Setembro, a não perder no Diário Económico o 5º capítulo da saga dedicada à Marca Portugal.
num Blog-Notas, para tornar o obscuro bastante mais...
CLARO
LIVRE CONCORRÊNCIA... À LA RUSSA!
Nicolas Baverez publica no último Le Point uma informadíssima e cristalina análise da recomposição da potência russa e da escassa ortodoxia dos seus métodos... Absolutamente imperdível e de leitura urgente:
" 
La politique de puissance du soviet-capitalisme russe
Nicolas Baverez
Trois événements récents ont jeté une lumière crue sur la nouvelle donne russe, éclairant la nature profonde du régime de Vladimir Poutine. Le 29 août, la banque d'Etat Vnechtorgbank a annoncé détenir 5,02 % du capital d'EADS - soit une participation équivalant à celle de l'Espagne (5,47 %) -, prélude à une déclaration du Kremlin dévoilant son intention d'obtenir au moins une minorité de blocage. Le 14 septembre était abattu Andreï Kozlov, gouverneur adjoint de la Banque de Russie chargé de la réforme du système bancaire, qui avait engagé une lutte sans concession contre la corruption. Le 18 septembre, Moscou retirait à Shell la licence d'exploitation du gisement gazier de Sakhaline 2 et menaçait de faire de même avec Exxon pour Sakhaline 1 et Total pour Khariaga.
Ces faits s'inscrivent dans le droit-fil du recul de l'Etat de droit et des réformes depuis l'arrivée au pouvoir de Vladimir Poutine en 2000, symbolisé par le démantèlement de Ioukos et la déportation de Mikhaïl Khodorkovski. Sous couvert de rétablissement de l'ordre et de « démocratie dirigée », la démocratisation de la décennie Eltsine a été liquidée au profit d'un régime à la fois dictatorial et populiste. La stabilisation marque en réalité une réhabilitation : la Russie du XXIe siècle n'a renoncé au communisme que pour mieux communier dans le soviétisme.
Le parti unique et son idéologie d'Etat ont disparu ; mais le développement hypertrophié des ministères de force, le contrôle de l'économie et des médias, le refus de fait du pluralisme perdurent. A travers le monopole des services de sécurité sur les postes de pouvoir dans la politique, la haute administration et l'économie, le commissaire politique tend la main aux oligarques d'Etat au-dessus du gouffre creusé par l'effondrement de l'URSS.
Le pouvoir de Vladimir Poutine s'est construit autour du nationalisme russe, via la guerre de Tché-tchénie. Il a pris une nouvelle dimension avec le choc pétrolier (Gazprom contrôle 17 % des réserves mondiales de gaz) ainsi que l'explosion des prix des hydrocarbures et des métaux, qui ont augmenté de 157 % et de 180 % en valeur réelle depuis 2002. La Russie postcommuniste a installé l'Etat au coeur des entreprises.
La flambée de l'énergie et des matières premières a provoqué un miracle économique en Russie. La croissance annuelle atteint 6,5 % en 2006 ; l'investissement productif s'élève à 10,5 % du PIB ; l'excédent budgétaire culmine à 7,5 % du PIB et les réserves de change ont bondi à 250 milliards de dollars, autorisant le remboursement complet de la dette souveraine. Loin d'être mise au service de la population et de la modernisation des structures économiques et sociales, cette manne a été mobilisée en priorité pour cantonner les mécanismes de marché et financer la prise de contrôle par l'Etat des principaux actifs du pays, notamment dans le secteur clé de l'énergie et des matières premières : 17,4 milliards de dollars ont été affectés en 2005 à des prises de participations publiques dans des entreprises déclarées stratégiques et fermées aux investissements étrangers.
La refondation de la superpuissance russe poursuit quatre axes. Le premier cherche à reconstruire l'espace soviétique grâce au contrôle des sources de production d'Asie centrale, grâce au monopole sur les gazoducs, et par la prise de contrôle des entreprises de distribution en Europe.
Le deuxième vise à créer un cartel des producteurs, notamment dans le gaz, par le biais des accords signés notamment avec l'Algérie, afin de faire pression sur les consommateurs.
Le troisième consiste en des choix commerciaux purement politiques, qui d'un côté indexent le prix du gaz en fonction de l'alignement sur les intérêts russes, de l'autre recourent au chantage à l'approvisionnement.
Le quatrième, vecteur du retour de la Russie au premier rang de la diplomatie mondiale, lie prolifération des armements et chantage énergétique, notamment avec l'appui accordé à l'Iran et à ses relais - Hamas et Hezbollah.
Ce retour en force de l'impérialisme russe, stade suprême du soviétisme, reste cependant fragile. Il doit d'abord beaucoup aux circonstances, qu'il s'agisse du choc pétrolier ou de la désastreuse politique extérieure de l'administration Bush. Plus encore, il se heurte à des contradictions difficilement surmontables. Car cet impérialisme prend place sur fond de débâcle démographique.
L'Europe devrait prendre acte de cette réalité en opposant un front uni au soviet-capitalisme russe. Si la multiplication des partenariats industriels et commerciaux est légitime, la prise de contrôle d'actifs stratégiques doit être proscrite : leur but véritable n'est pas économique mais politique.
© le point 28/09/06 - N°1776 - Page 73 - 722 mots "
José Mateus Cavaco Silva at September 30, 2006 20:28 |
link | comments
Tags: mudança do modelo energético, inteligência estratégica, mudança do modelo global
Tags: mudança do modelo energético, inteligência estratégica, mudança do modelo global
CIBER-TERRORISMO E HOMELAND SECURITY
" Sécurité
Les Etats-Unis ont simulé une cyber-attaque
Cela s'est passé en février mais on ne l'apprend qu'aujourd'hui: les Américains ont simulé une attaque informatique d'envergure du 6 au 10 février 2006. Baptisée "Cyber Storm", cette attaque avait un objectif: tester les réactions des entreprises et des organismes publics face à une menace de ce genre.
"Cyber Storm" devait toucher les infrastructures de communication, les systèmes bancaires, les transports en commun, etc. Cette attaque a mobilisé 300 personnes aux Etats-Unis, en Australie, en Nouvelle-Zélande, au Canada et au Royaume-Uni et aurait coûté près de 3 millions de dollars.
Cette attaque informatique consistait à tester des défenses et la mise en œuvre des procédures d'alerte et de réponse. La coordination entre les différentes agences gouvernementales a elle aussi été éprouvée. Les autorités ont ainsi constaté que quelques points, comme la coordination des opérations entre les différents organismes (l'armée, le secteur privé et les médias), devaient être améliorés.
Mais la France n'est pas en reste et a mis au point sa propre opération, le "Plan Piranet" qui est un plan de réaction "en cas d'attaque informatique terroriste d'ampleur" mis en place après les attentats du 11 septembre 2001. Le dernier "Plan Piranet" a été réalisé en 2005. Le but de cette attaque informatique n'est pas d'infecter un réseau avec un code malveillant mais d'acquérir des réflexes.
"La dimension technique n'est pas la partie la plus importante. L'essentiel se situe au niveau de la procédure, de l'intendance, de la communication. [...] Il s'agit plutôt d'un exercice de gestion de crise. [...] Le plus compliqué est de créer une simulation qui soit proche de la réalité", explique Patrick Pailloux, directeur central de la sécurité des systèmes d'information (DCSSI) au Secrétariat général de la défense nationale.
A ce sujet, lire aussi :
- Le rapport du Department of Homeland Security américain sur la cyber-attaque menée aux Etats-Unis en février "
E em Portugal... Como vamos nestas matérias? Pois vamos mal, ninguém pensa nelas e os poucos especialista não são chamado a pronunciar-se e nem ouvidos por quem tem a obrigação... Seria um desastre se acontecesse um ciber-ataque. E seria ainda um desastre para um ministro, António Costa, que noutras áreas mais clássicas, como os fogos de Verão ou até Timor, tem feito um trabalho de assinalar. E seria ainda injusto para José Sócrates... Mas toda a gente sabe que o mundo não é caracterizado pela predominância do justo e que os desastres acontecem quando menos se espera. Pelo que... só se safa quem se prepara!
Este tema tem sido regularmente tratado no Claro, por exemplo, aqui, em Outubro de 2004, aqui , aqui e aqui... A tese dos coronéis chineses e, no campo oposto, os trabalhos de ROBERT BUNKER: (Networks, Terrorism and Global Insurgency), de John Robb e os trabalhos não-publicados do português Sérgio Campos têm merecido ao Claro uma atenção permanente, nos últimos anos.
Já em 2003, no Diários de Notícias, e em 2004 aqui, destacavamos que "o especialista português desta matéria, Sérgio Campos, em trabalho ainda não publicado, considera mesmo a ciberguerra como “ a forma de “guerra total” que pode vir a ser aplicadas no século XXI, sendo que é evidente que o conceito abrange aquilo que os grandes teóricos da guerra, tanto Liddel Hart como Fuller entendiam como “paralisação estratégica”.
" Para Sérgio Campos, “ o que é dramático é que, a somar à ameaça, há o facto de as sociedades ocidentais confiarem em redes desprotegidas, que conduzem ao risco de fracasso militar e a perdas económicas catastróficas. As possibilidades (do atacante) são de facto imensas, pois cada vez mais a própria complexidade e dimensão das organizações e das actividades leva a uma dependência acrescida dos computadores, os quais armazenam informações que não estão mais disponíveis de outra forma “. Ou seja, informações que não existem fora das tais redes desprotegidas...
" Pense-se na realíssima possibilidade de acontecer amanhã um ciberataque ao sistema bancário, às redes de energia, água ou telecomunicações, ao sistema de controlo de voo ou até ao sistema do Ministério da Justiça, da Defesa, da Administração Interna, ao Gabinete do Primeiro-Ministro ou, porque não, à Rede do Governo... Pense-se nisso, não como num filme distante mas como algo de que podemos saber daqui a pouco e da pior maneira, pois até a rádio pode não funcionar... ou não funcionar bem! O cenário da “guerra Irrestrita” está montado, as suas perspectivas são aterradoras e – uma dúzia de anos depois da queda do muro de Berlim – quantas saudades já daquela paz dos tempos do equilíbrio do terror assegurado pela Estratégia MAD, da Guerra Fria. "
Sim, quantas saudades... Mas mais que a contemplação saudosa desses tempos, importa agora a acção de preparar, de se preparar para aparar e parar as novas ameaças já detectáveis e ainda pensar o impensável.
José Mateus Cavaco Silva at September 30, 2006 18:35 |
link | comments
Tags: portugal, homeland security, inteligência estratégica
Tags: portugal, homeland security, inteligência estratégica
http://www.obsessionthemovie.com/
A DESCOBRIR... Ver Aqui a Cronologia desta "Obsession"
José Mateus Cavaco Silva at September 30, 2006 02:10 |
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Tags: perceptions management, terrorismo
Tags: perceptions management, terrorismo
Claro confirmado 2 meses depois...
"FUMOS DE CORRUPÇÃO NA DEFESA"
INDICAVAM MESMO QUE HAVIA FOGO!
Sobre "Fumos de corrupção na Defesa", em 9 de Agosto, escrevia-se aqui no CLARO: "... Rui Neves, presidente da comissão de contrapartidas, diz sibilinamente que PJ e PGR devem investigar alegados actos de corrupção nas contrapartidas... "
Mas, há sempre um "mas", fica-me uma dúvida: "PJ e PGR devem investigar alegados actos de corrupção nas contrapartidas"... Ou estão a investigar? "
É claro que PJ e PGR já estavam a investigar... como agora se viu!
Os "alegados actos de corrupção" eram uma referência de Rui Neves à denúncia feita ao Correio da Manhã por Sérgio Parreira de Campos, vice-presidente da Empordef, "Fumos de corrupção em negócios da Defesa", dias antes.
Na altura, aqui, disse-se mais e é talvez conveniente recordá-lo para se entender por que se estão a passar-se agora coisas nunca dantes vistas... Escrevia-se então, a 2 de Agosto, que havia
Quase dois meses depois, as manchetes confirmam plenamente as notícias do CLARO de inícios de Agosto e a razão de Sérgio Parreira de Campos e de Rui Neves...
José Mateus Cavaco Silva at September 29, 2006 20:53 |
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Tags: portugal, homeland security, visto de esquerda
Tags: portugal, homeland security, visto de esquerda
O PROBLEMA DO JEITO DAS CAMISAS
(com uma adenda à "guerra do string")
Diane Lane
Catherine Zeta-Jones
Juliana Paes
Com islâmicas ameaças de morte a filósofos e proíbição às francesas de usar biquinis nas praias do Sena...
A BATALHA DO STRING
AO RUBRO EM FRANÇA
Robert Redeker, professor de filosofia, num liceu de França, esconde-se sob protecção policial, depois de ter recebido ameaças de morte muito concretas devido às opiniões filosóficas expressas num artigo publicado no Figaro, como aqui já tinhamos referido. O jornal, de resto, foi imediatamente proíbido e retirado de circulação em vários países árabes, depois de um ataque em regra, feito na hora, por um pregador da Al-Jazira.
Mas que diabo dizia o professor de filosofia para 
desencadear tamanha tempestade?
Redeker considera, por exemplo, inaceitável e sinal da islamização da França que as francesas tenham sido proíbidas, durante a "praia" de Verão nas margens do Sena em Paris, de usar biquinis string pois isso ofenderia as idiossincrasias islâmicas... Que compara à não-proíbição do largo véu islâmico nas ruas, considerada muito mais perigosa para a ordem pública que o diminuto string. A proíbição feita às francesas do uso do string pelas autoridades de Paris é dada como exemplo da submissão da França aos diktats islâmicos.
O texto integral está disponível aqui , mas podemos ter uma ideia do pensamento do professor pela descrição feita pelo L'Express:
"Redeker s’inquiète dans son texte d’une "islamisation de la France", s'offusquant par exemple de "l'interdiction du string lors de l'opération Paris Plages, sur les bords de la Seine cet été", qui relèverait d'une "soumission plus ou moins consciente aux diktats de l'islam". "La non interdiction du port du voile dans la rue est plus propre à ‘troubler l'ordre public’ que le string", estime-t-il.
"Dans son texte, intitulé "Face aux intimidations islamistes, que doit faire le monde libre?" et publié en pleine polémique suscitée par les propos du pape Benoît XVI sur l'islam, Robert Redeker affirme notamment que "haine et violence habitent le livre dans lequel tout musulman est éduqué, le Coran". Concernant Mahomet, le prophète de l'islam, l'auteur affirme: "Exaltation de la violence: chef de guerre impitoyable, pillard, massacreur de juifs et polygame, tel se révèle Mahomet à travers le Coran".
O site do filósofo robert redeker
A BATALHA SEMÂNTICA
"...Les islamistes voient dans la bataille du vocabulaire un enjeu d'importance. Le terme d'islamophobie cache le piège tendu aux institutions laïques par les intégristes musulmans pour empêcher la critique de la religion tout en soumettant des segments de l'existence sociale (spécialement celle des femmes) à une emprise totalitaire. Perdre la bataille sémantique, en réutilisant le vocabulaire mis en circulation par les islamistes comme s'il allait de soi, est désastreux. Le mot " islamophobie " rabat à faux-titres la défense de la liberté et de la laïcité sur l'intolérance et sur la haine. Il réussit à contraindre les valeurs républicaines à demeurer sur la défensive: ce sont elles désormais qui, mises en difficulté par la sophistique d'un tour de passe-passe lexical, se voient accusées d'intolérance et d'intégrisme. La prestidigitation de ce mot consiste à renverser la réalité en plaçant l'obscurantisme en position de victime et la laïcité d'agresseur. La laïcité doit maintenir le mot " islamophobie " hors du cercle des débats, tout en pourchassant le racisme, en particulier l'arabophobie." robert redeker
+ d'informations
José Mateus Cavaco Silva at September 29, 2006 19:37 |
link | comments
Tags: perceptions management, homeland security, terrorismo
Tags: perceptions management, homeland security, terrorismo
No CounterterrorismBlog
TERRORISMO: NOTÍCIAS E ANÁLISES
Al-Qaeda Iraq Leader Calls For Kidnapping, Bio/Rad Weapon Attacks on US Bases in Iraq
By Jeffrey Imm
Update to previous blog: Al-Qaeda's Iraq leader issued a message today calling for kidnapping of Christians during Ramadan and for scientists to join the Jihadists in using radioactive or biological weapons against USA bases in Iraq. (Audio can be downloaded here, and Rita Katz's longer analysis and selected excerpts are available here.)
Al-Qaeda Leader in Iraq Abu Hamza al-Muhajir (aka Abu Ayyub al-Masri) issued a 20-minute long audio message today "Come to a Word that is Just Between Us and You," which is taken from the Qur'an, Surah al-Imran, verse 64 that was posted on Jihadist web sites by the Mujahadeen Council, an umbrella group of eight Iraqi armed Salafite formations, including al-Qaeda in Iraq.
The message is dated from the first day of Ramadan (September 23) and calls for kidnapping of Christians: "I call on every holy fighter in Iraq to strive during this holy month (Ramadan)... to capture some dogs of the Christians so that we can liberate our imprisoned sheikh" referring to sheikh Omar Abdul Rahman. Omar Abdul Ramhan has been in prison in the US since 1995 for the attack two years earlier on World Trade Center.
The audio message also called for experts in "chemistry, physics, electronics, media and all other sciences -- especially nuclear scientists and explosives experts" to join the Jihadists. "We are in dire need of you," he said. "The field of jihad (holy war) can satisfy your scientific ambitions, and the large American bases (in Iraq) are good places to test your unconventional weapons, whether biological or dirty, as they call them."
The audio message also claimed that "The blood has been spilled in Iraq of more than 4,000 foreigners who came to fight" in Iraq.
DNI Releases Declassified "Key Judgments" of National Intelligence Estimate (available here)
By Andrew Cochran
Under orders from President Bush, the Director of National Intelligence has released an declassified version of the key judgments from the April NIE, from which one conclusion was leaked to and reported by the "New York Times."
Here is the declassified section titled "Key Judgments" released today (Acrobat file, four pages only). A few key quotes:
"United States-led counterterrorism efforts have seriously damaged the leadership of al-Qa’ida and disrupted its operations; however, we judge that al-Qa’ida will continue to pose the greatest threat to the Homeland and US interests abroad by a single terrorist organization. We also assess that the global jihadist movement—which includes al- Qa’ida, affiliated and independent terrorist groups, and emerging networks and cells—is spreading and adapting to counterterrorism efforts.
• Although we cannot measure the extent of the spread with precision, a large body of all-source reporting indicates that activists identifying themselves as jihadists, although a small percentage of Muslims, are increasing in both number and geographic dispersion.
• If this trend continues, threats to US interests at home and abroad will become more diverse, leading to increasing attacks worldwide.
• Greater pluralism and more responsive political systems in Muslim majority nations would alleviate some of the grievances jihadists exploit. Over time, such progress, together with sustained, multifaceted programs targeting the vulnerabilities of the jihadist movement and continued pressure on al-Qa’ida, could erode support for the jihadists.
We assess that the global jihadist movement is decentralized, lacks a coherent global strategy, and is becoming more diffuse. New jihadist networks and cells, with anti- American agendas, are increasingly likely to emerge. The confluence of shared purpose and dispersed actors will make it harder to find and undermine jihadist groups.
• We assess that the operational threat from self-radicalized cells will grow in importance to US counterterrorism efforts, particularly abroad but also in the Homeland.
• The jihadists regard Europe as an important venue for attacking Western interests. Extremist networks inside the extensive Muslim diasporas in Europe facilitate recruitment and staging for urban attacks, as illustrated by the 2004 Madrid and 2005 London bombings.
Read More »
Al-Qaeda Iraq Leader Calls For Kidnapping, Bio/Rad Weapon Attacks on US Bases in Iraq
By Jeffrey Imm
Update to previous blog: Al-Qaeda's Iraq leader issued a message today calling for kidnapping of Christians during Ramadan and for scientists to join the Jihadists in using radioactive or biological weapons against USA bases in Iraq. (Audio can be downloaded here, and Rita Katz's longer analysis and selected excerpts are available here.)
Al-Qaeda Leader in Iraq Abu Hamza al-Muhajir (aka Abu Ayyub al-Masri) issued a 20-minute long audio message today "Come to a Word that is Just Between Us and You," which is taken from the Qur'an, Surah al-Imran, verse 64 that was posted on Jihadist web sites by the Mujahadeen Council, an umbrella group of eight Iraqi armed Salafite formations, including al-Qaeda in Iraq.
The message is dated from the first day of Ramadan (September 23) and calls for kidnapping of Christians: "I call on every holy fighter in Iraq to strive during this holy month (Ramadan)... to capture some dogs of the Christians so that we can liberate our imprisoned sheikh" referring to sheikh Omar Abdul Rahman. Omar Abdul Ramhan has been in prison in the US since 1995 for the attack two years earlier on World Trade Center.
The audio message also called for experts in "chemistry, physics, electronics, media and all other sciences -- especially nuclear scientists and explosives experts" to join the Jihadists. "We are in dire need of you," he said. "The field of jihad (holy war) can satisfy your scientific ambitions, and the large American bases (in Iraq) are good places to test your unconventional weapons, whether biological or dirty, as they call them."
The audio message also claimed that "The blood has been spilled in Iraq of more than 4,000 foreigners who came to fight" in Iraq.
• If this trend continues, threats to US interests at home and abroad will become more diverse, leading to increasing attacks worldwide.
• Greater pluralism and more responsive political systems in Muslim majority nations would alleviate some of the grievances jihadists exploit. Over time, such progress, together with sustained, multifaceted programs targeting the vulnerabilities of the jihadist movement and continued pressure on al-Qa’ida, could erode support for the jihadists.
• The jihadists regard Europe as an important venue for attacking Western interests. Extremist networks inside the extensive Muslim diasporas in Europe facilitate recruitment and staging for urban attacks, as illustrated by the 2004 Madrid and 2005 London bombings.
The Islamization of Morocco
By Olivier Guitta
I wrote a piece for the Weekly Standard on Morocco's dangerous path to Islamization.
Here's an excerpt:
A LITTLE MORE THAN three years ago, Morocco experienced Islamic terrorism firsthand. On May 16, 2003, Casablanca was hit with four simultaneous attacks that left 45 people dead and hundreds injured. The attacks were perpetrated by Moroccan citizens who were members of the al Qaeda-affiliated Moroccan Islamic Combatant Group (known by its French acronym, GICM).
Needless to say, the kingdom was stunned that its sons had turned violently against it. Now, the dismantling of another extensive Islamist cell in Morocco confirms that extremism is spreading inside what has long been viewed as one of the most moderate countries in the Arab world.
In a series of arrests over the past month, Moroccan authorities have seized 59 people and over 30 kilograms of TNT, more than was used in the 2003 attacks but of the same type. The alleged targets were political and military leaders, along with locations in Marrakesh, Morocco's premier tourist destination, the air force base of Salé, and the U.S. embassy in Rabat.
But the most troubling aspect of this cell by far is its membership. While the suicide bombers of 2003 came from the slums around Casa blanca, the newly arrested suspects are from all walks of life. They include five members of the military, three policemen, a Domestic Security officer, two imams, and four society women. Two of these women, the wives of Royal Air Morocco pilots, had volunteered for suicide missions in Iraq and Israel.
The full article is here.
José Mateus Cavaco Silva at September 28, 2006 18:38 |
link | comments
Tags: homeland security, terrorismo
Tags: homeland security, terrorismo
Nem o Salazar foi tão longe!
UMA DITADURA ISLÂMICA
EM MARCHA NA EUROPA?
"Un prof menacé de mort
Hana Al-Hussaini
Un professeur de philosophie d'un lycée du sud-ouest de la France a été menacé de mort et placé sous protection après avoir publié une tribune dénonçant "l'islamisation des esprits en France".
obert Redeker, le professeur de philosophie qui avait publié une tribune virulente sur l'islam le 19 septembre dans Le Figaro, a été menacé de mort et vit désormais sous protection. Pierre Donnadieu, le proviseur du lycée Pierre-Paul-Riquet à Saint-Orens de Gammeville, dans la banlieue de Toulouse, où officie l'enseignant, a annoncé à ses collègues qu'il serait provisoirement remplacé. Les forces de l'ordre, qui ont confirmé les menaces, ont refusé de divulguer la moindre précision supplémentaire "pour des raisons de sécurité". La surveillance de l'établissement a été renforcée et le courrier adressé à Robert Redeker est désormais filtré.
"L'islam est une religion qui exalte violence et haine"
Dans son texte, intitulé "Face aux intimidations islamistes, que doit faire le monde libre?" et publié en pleine polémique suscitée par les propos du pape Benoît XVI sur l'islam, Robert Redeker affirme notamment que "haine et violence habitent le livre dans lequel tout musulman est éduqué, le Coran". Concernant Mahomet, le prophète de l'islam, l'auteur affirme: "Exaltation de la violence: chef de guerre impitoyable, pillard, massacreur de juifs et polygame, tel se révèle Mahomet à travers le Coran".
De plus, Redeker s’inquiète dans son texte d’une "islamisation de la France", s'offusquant par exemple de "l'interdiction du string lors de l'opération Paris Plages, sur les bords de la Seine cet été", qui relèverait d'une "soumission plus ou moins consciente aux diktats de l'islam". "La non interdiction du port du voile dans la rue est plus propre à ‘troubler l'ordre public’ que le string", estime-t-il. La Tunisie avait immédiatement protesté en interdisant Le Figaro dès le lendemain 20 septembre."
José Mateus Cavaco Silva at September 28, 2006 18:21 |
link | comments
Tags: perceptions management, homeland security, terrorismo
Tags: perceptions management, homeland security, terrorismo
marca portugal
DO HENRIQUE AGOSTINHO NO CONSUMERING
Outro - 5º episódio da Marca Portugal
A mui perigosa Marca Península Ibérica
Fala-se por aí de uma eventual “marca península ibérica” a propósito de um pouco claro acordo de promoção conjunta do turismo em Portugal e Espanha. Obviamente que esse fosão não faz sentido e o Diário Económico faz hoje eco disso mesmo no suplemento fórum ibérico (ver página 3).
MODA FLORIDA NA PRIMAVERA
MILAN (AFP), Création de Rifat Ozbek pour Pollini présentée lors des collections de prêt-à porter féminin printemps-été 2007 à Milan. © 2006 AFP
MILAN (AFP), Création de Rifat Ozbek pour Pollini présentée lors des collections de prêt-à porter féminin printemps-été 2007 à Milan. © 2006 AFP
MILAN (AFP), 2006-09-24 22:53:45 . Un mannequin présente la création du designer italien Daniela Carano pour la collection Printemps/été 2007. © 2006 AFP
José Mateus Cavaco Silva at September 27, 2006 20:40 |
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Tags: perceptions management, fotos e vídeos
Tags: perceptions management, fotos e vídeos
EXÍLIO...
Anjo Caído (na Publicidade)
RECHERCHES SUR LES DIFFERENTS ASPECTS DU SYNCRÈTISME RELIGIEUX DANS LA LUSITANIE ROMAINE
Uma interessantíssima tese de doutoramento apresentada na Sorbonne por Katia Maia-Bessa, com o apoio do Ministério da Educação do Brasil...
A descobrir AQUI
A FAST COMPANY TAMBÉM É... BLOG
Hollywould...
"Today's Wall Street Journal (9-25-06) Small Business section features a lead article on "How to Get Attention in a New-Media World", highlighting the success of a fashion clothier called Hollywould in gaining awareness and publicity through designer Holly Dunlap's blog..." Read on...
UMA "SURPRESA" DE BUSH
As aspas em "surpresa" querem dizer que surpresa só o será para distraídos ou pré-determinados em má-fé... Bastaria ter lido, com uma atenção mínima, este documento "apócrifo" para prever que esta "surpresa" vinha aí... só faltando anunciar a data. Foi por estes dias... E convém tomá-la muito a sério e empregar alguma inteligência estratégica a estudá-la e...
US presents strategic plan for Climate Change Technology Programme
George W. Bush's US government announced on 20 September that it will invest more than $3 billion in research to avoid global warming by developing "visionary" technological breakthroughs.
George W. Bush's US government announced on 20 September that it will invest more than $3 billion in research to avoid global warming by developing "visionary" technological breakthroughs.
RELATED
Brief News:
Unlike the European Union, the US government does not believe in the Kyoto approach to global warming. It has once more expressed its faith in a technological solution to climate change by presenting a $3 billion programme to fund research into climate-change technologies.
The new Climate Change Technology Programme (CCTP) Strategic Plan is the technological component of the climate-change strategy presented by President Bush in 2002. The main elements of his response to global warming consist of:
- Voluntary partnerships with industry (compared to the mandatory emissions- trading system in the EU);
- advanced climate-change science and research, and;
- international collaboration (via the Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate or the International Partnership for a Hydrogen Economy.
Through the new CCTP strategy, the Bush government will invest in climate-change research and development. The main technologies to be developed under the programme are hydrogen, biorefining, clean coal and carbon sequestration, nuclear fission and fusion. Energy efficiency, one of Europe's main responses to fight climate change, is noticable by its absence from the programme.
The EU is preparing its second European Climate Change Programme (ECCP II) and a revision and extension of its Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS).
Links
EU official documents
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DG Environment: EU Action against climate change.Research and development to stimulate climate-friendly technologies
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DG Environment: The European Climate Change Program
Governments
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US Department of Energy (DOE):
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U.S. Climate Change Technology Program. Strategic Plan , (September 2006)
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US Department of Energy (DOE): Press release "DOE Releases Climate Change Technology Program Strategic Plan" , (20 September 2006)
Press articles
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EurActiv.sk:
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USA: 3 mld dolárov na boj proti klimatickým zmenán (21 September 2006)
José Mateus Cavaco Silva at September 27, 2006 17:28 |
link | comments
Tags: mudança do modelo energético, inteligência estratégica, mudança do modelo global
Tags: mudança do modelo energético, inteligência estratégica, mudança do modelo global
QUE FAZER COM A INTELIGÊNCIA ECONÓMICA ?
Sobre este "que fazer com a inteligência económica", post de há dias - ver aqui - teceu o Rui Perdigão, no Luar, quatro comentários que (se tu permites, Rui) também farei meus:
" Sobre a nota…
… do Zé, com o título "Que fazer com a Inteligência Económica?", no Blog Claro, penso - se ainda me é permitido pensar, visto que já morri, mas ainda ninguém teve a coragem de me dizer - que serão precisos três passos, neste "final de ciclo" em que há uma revisão profunda dos objectos ideológicos da adolescência dos anos 70 e 80:
O primeiro, será encontrá-la - Inteligência, claro, sendo "que há vida, para além do Poder (político)", como o disse José-Maria Aznar;
O segundo, será ensinar-lhes o que são os negócios (difíceis) no mundo de hoje e o que são os "mercados" (difíceis) neste coisa complexa que é planeta terra - único que temos, aliás;
O terceiro passo, é a reciclagem, a formação, as injecções de confiança e de orientações estratégicas, gostar de fazer negócios, para além de ganhar dinheiro no apeadeiro à espera do comboio da política;
E, bom, vá lá, um quarto passo: sair da "via da facilidade", esforçar os miolos, de modo a formalizar um "Pensamento Estratégico" inteligível - para não ficarmos na dependência de uma dúzia de cérebros, conselheiros de todas as capelinhas e que, ao que parece, vão todos beber à mesma fonte.
Estaremos cá para ver. Espero. "
Estaremos, Rui, claro que estaremos... Menos claro é o que veremos!
"O JUMENTO" SABE MESMO DO FISCO,
DA ADMINISTRAÇÃO E... DA NOVABASE!
"...os mais de 13.000 funcionários do Fisco cada vez que abrem o Outlook Express para ler o correio electrónico têm tempo que dá para ir ao wc fazer um xixi e voltar? Alguém contou as horas de trabalho que custa ao país a má gestão da rede informática do Fisco ou questionou como foram gastos os muitos milhões de euros que já foram investidos nela? Quem poderia dar algumas respostas é uma das empresas que patrocinaram o Compromisso Portugal, a Novabase, que nos últimos anos quase lançou uma opa sobre os dinheiros da DGITA."
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O Jumento, às 12:30 | links para este post | (5) Coices | Trackback | Permalink |
José Mateus Cavaco Silva at September 27, 2006 16:45 |
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Tags: portugal, complexo salazarento e neo-corpo, visto de esquerda
Tags: portugal, complexo salazarento e neo-corpo, visto de esquerda
LER O RANKING DA COMPETITIVIDADE
No top ten do ranking da competitividade, sete são estados europeus. Os outros três são os Estados Unidos, Singapura e o Japão.
Suíça, Finlândia, Suécia e Dinamarca ocupam, por esta ordem, os primeiros quatro lugares do ranking. Alemanha (no oitavo lugar), Holanda (9º) e Inglaterra (10º) são os restantes três estados europeus deste top ten.
O grupo francófono fica muito longe dos lugares cimeiros. A França é relegada para 18º lugar, a Bélgica para 20º e o Luxemburgo para 22º...
Dos países do arco da "contra-reforma", a Espanha é o mais dinâmico (na 28ª posição), Portugal ocupa agora o 34º lugar (desceu brutalmente) e a Itália afunda-se em 42º.
A Estónia lidera na Europa de leste (25º), bem à frente de Portugal, seguida da República Checa (29º), também bem à frente de Portugal, e a Eslovénia(33º),ainda à frente de Portugal. A trepar na classificação,a ameaçar ultrapassar Portugal e tendo já passado a Itália surgem a República Eslovaca (37º), a Lituânia (40º) e a Hungria (41º). De notar que a Estónia obtém uma classificação já superior à da Espanha...
Estes rankings valem o que valem, mas são indicativos e este é o mais apreciado pelos decisores de todo o mundo. Uma leitura mais atenta do ranking permite isolar algumas tendências importantes. Faço-o aqui para a Europa.
Primeiro mas não o mais importante, o enorme dinamismo que, embora de forma assimétrica, anima sociedades e economias dos estados do leste europeu.
Segundo e mais importante, o Mar do Norte e o Báltico concentram o grande dinamismo da Europa - Finlândia, Suécia, Dinamarca, Holanda, Inglaterra e a própria Alemanha - e lideram, mesmo que não de forma orgânica, a evolução da Europa.
Terceiro e importante de anotar, o grupo francófono perde peso e dinamismo e a fúria espanhola não chega para ocultar a crise estrutural em que o arco da "contra-reforma" continua a afundar-se...
Último e muito curioso, o líder europeu e mundial está fora da União Europeia: a Suíça...
APRECIAÇÃO DO EURACTIV
The World Economic Forum (WEF) releases its Global Competitiveness Report annually, which provides an overview of the key factors for driving productivity and competitiveness and ranks the 125 countries covered according to their performance in these areas.
Contrary to last year’s report, which showed that the EU’s largest member states had been losing their competitive edge, the 2006-2007 edition, released on 26 September 2006, sees some of Europe’s 'big guns' making sharp progress and the 'Nordic three' knocking the US out of the top five.
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Switzerland, Finland, Sweden and Denmark top of the league:
This proves that focus on innovation and technology through investments in infrastructure, education, scientific research and the establishment of strong intellectual property protection are “a successful strategy for boosting competitiveness in an increasingly complex global economy”, said Augusto Lopez-Claros, chief economist and director of the WEF’s Global Competitiveness Network.
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EU ahead of US, China and India on competitveness:
The EU now counts six member states (the Nordic three, UK, Netherlands and Germany) in the top ten and, although most have not made any significant upwards moves in the rankings, the economies most often described as Europe’s main rivals in its race for competitiveness have not fared too well either.
The US has tumbled down the league, dropping from first to sixth place, overtaken by three EU member states, in a sign that the EU is making progress towards the Lisbon goal of becoming “the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world” by 2010.
The report also shows that the EU is still well ahead of China in the competitiveness race. Furthermore, China went down, and not up, in the rankings (to 54th position), its competitiveness limited by a largely state-controlled banking sector, low penetration rates for latest technologies (mobile telephones, internet, personal computers), and low school enrolment rates.
India on the other hand, could turn out to be Europe’s main rival in the global economy, having improved its performance to rank 43rd overall - ahead of the EU’s worst-performing countries - thanks to excellent scores in capacity for innovation and sophistication of firm operations.
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Europe must still do more:
Despite the EU’s overall improvement in terms of competitiveness, much remains to be done. Indeed, Europe’s largest economies all showed signs of slowing - although Germany and the United Kingdom continue to rank in the top ten, the UK is still lagging on innovation, whereas Germany’s cumbersome labour regulations are holding the business community back. France has fallen from 12th to 18th position, due to the lack of efficiency and flexibility of its labour market and its badly targeted public expenditure.
Italy has continued its downward slide to 42nd place in this year’s report. Having run budget deficits without interruption for the past 20 years, public debt levels are among the highest in the world. The study points to "deep-seated institutional problems" which have led to bad government spending, over-regulation and poor quality public services.
As in previous years, Poland and Greece remain the worst performers in the EU – similar to the results of the World Bank study on "Doing Business in 2007", which showed the two countries to be among the worst places to do business in the world (see EurActiv 7 September 2006).
Other new member states, however, including Estonia (25), the Czech Republic (29) and Slovenia (33), have performed quite well. And, among the candidate countries, Turkey and Croatia both seem to have benefited from the "EU bonus", moving up impressively in the rankings by 12 places each, to positions 59 and 51 respectively.
Chief Economist and Director of the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Network Augusto Lopez-Claros said: "The top rankings of Switzerland and the Nordic countries show that good institutions and competent macroeconomic management, coupled with world-class educational attainment and a focus on technology and innovation, are a successful strategy for boosting competitiveness in an increasingly complex global economy...Countries that, like the Nordics, are investing heavily in education are likely to see rising levels of income per capita, growing success in reducing poverty and an increasing ability to establish a presence in the global economy."
Peter Power, Spokesman for Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson, said this was of course "good news" but added: "The EU must seek to build on these improvements." This will be the aim of Mandelson’s paper on improving the external aspects of the EU’s competitiveness, which will be presented on 4 October 2006, with the aim to "significantly improve the position of European businesses in the world".
France’s drop from 12th to 18th place is "not dramatical", said French Trade Minister Christine Lagarde. "Overall, we have lost only eight hundreths of a point on competitiveness, on a scale from one to seven", she declared, putting the downwards slide down to the fact that “the World Economic Forum carried out its study at the time of the CPE, the First Employment Contract”. (See EurActiv 4 April 2006). "I am not at all surprised that we did a little less well than last year because, to appreciate France’s competitiveness, having protests against the CPE in the backgound would naturally not lead to an optimistic view from businessmen that were interviewed," she said. She added that one must stick to the facts: "It is no coincidence that we are regularly the 4th country in the world for receiving foreign direct investments."
Liens
Organisations internationales:
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World Economic Forum (WEF): Switzerland, Finland and Sweden take the lead... (26 September 2006)
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WEF: Global Competitiveness Report 2006-2007: Executive Summary
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WEF: The Global Competitiveness Report 2006-2007: Interviews
Articles de Presse:
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International Herald Tribune: http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2006/09/26/business/EU_php
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The Guardian: UK slips and US falls in competitiveness league
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Washington Post: U.S. drops to 6th in world competitiveness ranking
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Nouvel Observateur: Compétitivité: la France recule
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Le Figaro: La France au 18e rang mondial de la compétitivité
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Die Welt: Deutschland fällt zurück
José Mateus Cavaco Silva at September 27, 2006 16:25 |
link | comments
Tags: europa, curvas da economia, inteligência estratégica
Tags: europa, curvas da economia, inteligência estratégica
GEOPOLÍTICA DA ENERGIA NA EUROPA
" Energie
L'Espagne doit supprimer les obstacles à l'OPA sur Endesa
Les conditions imposées par le régulateur espagnol de l'énergie (CNE) sur le
géant énergétique E.ON sont illégales, a décidé la Commission le 26 septembre
La Commission accusée de s'en prendre à l'aide destinée à l'électricité verte
Les écologistes ont reproché à la Commission son intervention auprès du Luxembourg, dont les mesures de soutien aux énergies renouvelables sont, selon elle, à l'origine de distorsions de la concurrence. "
Em Portugal, para quem tenha lido nos jornais das últimas semanas o que pensam políticos, decisores, comentadores e editorialistas, até parece que não existe uma questão europeia da energia, que ela não é submetida a interesses específicos e que não não há uma geopolítica europeia da energia... Parece que tudo está reduzido a uma entidade mítica (porque em Portugal ainda inexistente...) chamada "mercado" (recentemente descoberta e miseravelmente entendida como uma sub-espécie contemporânea de D.Sebastião!) que ocupa as mal traduzidas sebentas de umas tantas péssimas escolas de economia e a cabeça do "guarda Abel"... Perguntem a Zapatero o que fez nos últmos dias! É urgente integrar nos raciocínios, cálculos e análises os novos (e imprescindíveis à sobrevivência na era da globalização) saberes da inteligência económica e da inteligência estratégica, fundamentais para elucidar os processos de decisão... Sem esquecer a terceira vertenrte da inteligência estratégica: o perceptions management.
A corrente idolatria, entre nós, não do mercado mas de uma entidade deusificada a que é dado esse nome - espécie de ideologia apologética e justificativa dos negócios neo-corporativos e salazarentos de uns mercadistas-leninistas - é, pior que um crime, um erro crasso de ingenuidade e falta de vida e de mundo.
José Mateus Cavaco Silva at September 27, 2006 15:37 |
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Tags: mudança do modelo energético, perceptions management, inteligência estratégica
Tags: mudança do modelo energético, perceptions management, inteligência estratégica
À censura muçulmana
NEM MOZART ESCAPA...
[Claudia Esch-Kenkel / EFE] 
«La Deutsche Oper de Berlín ha decidido suspender la tarde la representación de la ópera de Mozart Idomeneo' por recomendación de la Oficina Federal de Investigación Criminal, quien vio un peligro de despertar resquemores en el mundo islámico por el contenido de la obra.» [20 Minutos Link]
via Jumento
E OS BUDISTAS TAMBÉM SÃO ALVO !
" Four Buddhists shot dead in unrest
From: Agence France-Presse September 27, 2006
SUSPECTED Islamic militants today shot dead four Buddhists in two separate attacks in
In one attack, two teenagers in Islamic students' dress and riding a motorcycle, shot and killed three Buddhists in Yala, the capital of a province of the same name.
“The militants exploited the fact that the men were shopping at a grocery store and could not defend themselves, even though they had a gun,” police Colonel Somsak Wannawak said.
Click here to read the full article on the website "
José Mateus Cavaco Silva at September 27, 2006 15:10 |
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Tags: homeland security, terrorismo
Tags: homeland security, terrorismo
CARAS DE ENTERRO NO ADEUS DE BLAIR...
José Mateus Cavaco Silva at September 27, 2006 10:59 |
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Tags: perceptions management, fotos e vídeos
Tags: perceptions management, fotos e vídeos
SKYLANDER PODE VOAR...
PARA A COREIA DO SUL!
Fontes bem informadas do Claro garantem que os sul-coreanos estão a apresentar "uma proposta irrecusável" sobre o projecto Skylander... Uma verdadeira OPA!
O promotor do Skylander, que há muitos anos transfere know-how aeronáutico para a Coreia do Sul e é responsável pela concepção e engenharia na indústria aeronáutica sul-coreana, tem estado há meses sob pressão sul-coreana e, nos últimos dias, em Paris, essa pressão intensificou-se e está ao rubro...
Será esta uma oportunidade perdida, por e para Portugal, de entrar na construção aeronáutica, adquirir e internalizar tecnologias de ponta e mudar o tecido industrial e o perfil das exportações...? Quem é capaz de responder aos sul-coreanos? "A ver vamos", assim dizia o cego...
José Mateus Cavaco Silva at September 27, 2006 08:59 |
link | comments (2)
Tags: portugal, inteligência estratégica
Tags: portugal, inteligência estratégica
Revolução nas Farmácias e na Medicina
O "BELMIRO" AMERICANO TAMBÉM
AO ATAQUE DO MERCADO DA SAÚDE
" Wal-Mart casse le prix des médicaments... et de la médecine
Le n°1 mondial de la distribution teste dans la région de Tampa la commercialisation de 125 médicaments génériques à 4 dollars. Et annonce l'ouverture de nouveaux centres médicaux low cost.
« 291 génériques à 4 dollars » : Wal-Mart, le numéro 1 mondial de la grande distribution, vient de frapper un grand coup, jeudi, en dévoilant cette proposition si alléchante pour tous les Américains qui n'ont pas les moyens de se payer les traitements prescrits par leur médecin… Certains médicaments concernés étant conditionnés sous diverses formes, ce sont donc en réalité quelque 125 produits, destinés à soigner les maux courants (allergies, rhumes, tension, asthme, etc…), qui font partie de l'offre. Celle-ci est ouverte aux Américains couverts par une assurance médicale comme à ceux qui en sont dépourvus. L'expérience débute dès ce vendredi dans 65 magasins de la région de Tampa, à grande concentration de seniors. Si le test est concluant, il sera généralisé à toute la Floride en janvier, puis au reste des 3.000 points Wal-Mart du pays.
L'effet d'annonce a été si fort que les actions des leaders américains de la distribution de médicaments (Walgreen, CVS), ont, jeudi, plongé de 7% en bourse, leur chute la plus importante depuis plus de cinq ans. « La guerre des génériques s'intensifie », analyse la presse financière. Wal-Mart, déjà numéro 1 de l'alimentation, des vêtements et des jouets aux Etats-Unis, engage la bataille dans la pharmacie..." Continuar a ler AQUI
José Mateus Cavaco Silva at September 26, 2006 19:20 |
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Tags: inteligência económica, mudança do modelo global
Tags: inteligência económica, mudança do modelo global
INDIA E JAPÃO COM
"RELAÇÃO ESPECIAL"
"Un axe Inde-Japon pour contrer la Chine?
En présence du ministre indien du commerce, des hommes d'affaires indiens et japonais ont signé un accord symbolique pour développer les investissements et la coopération entre les deux pays. Près de quarante chefs d'entreprises des secteurs de l'automobile, de l'électronique, et de la banque évaluent à travers une tournée de 11 jours à travers le pays, le potentiel de l'Inde de devenir une plate-forme manufacturière alternative de la Chine. " Continuar a ler AQUI
José Mateus Cavaco Silva at September 26, 2006 19:10 |
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Tags: inteligência estratégica, mudança do modelo global
Tags: inteligência estratégica, mudança do modelo global
ZAPATERO MANDA E...
Acciona s'immisce dans l'OPA E.ON/Endesa
José Mateus Cavaco Silva at September 26, 2006 18:59 |
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Tags: mudança do modelo energético, curvas da economia, inteligência estratégica
Tags: mudança do modelo energético, curvas da economia, inteligência estratégica
GOOGLE SERVE AOS BELGAS
UMA BELA VINGANÇA... A FRIO!
Acusada em tribunal, por jornais belgas, de usar os seus conteúdos e não pagar direitos, a Google foi condenada a retirar os ditos conteúdos. Mas a empresa fez mais: executou rigorosamente a sentença do tribunal e, portanto, todas as referências aos jornais belgas queixosos desapareceram dos seus motores de busca. Os belgas ficaram um bocadinho incomodados... Eles não pediam tanto! Agora, se introduzir um pedido de pesquisa para, por exemplo, Le Soir, La Libre Belgique ou La Dernière Heure, Google não reenvia para o respectivo site...
Segundo a 18H.COM de hoje, «c'est ce que le tribunal nous a ordonné: retirer les sites à la fois de Google News.be et de Google.be », a justifié à l'AFP Rachel Whetstone, directrice européenne de la communication de Google. (...) "Sur son blog aux Etats-Unis, Google a expliqué sa position. Cette affaire « touche au cœur du fonctionnement des moteurs de recherche: montrer des extraits de texte et fournir des liens vers les sites où se trouve l'information, c'est ce qui rend les moteurs si utiles », a commenté sur le blog Rachel Whetstone. « Et ce ne sont pas seulement les utilisateurs qui profitent de ces liens, mais aussi les éditeurs de sites, car nous leur apportons un énorme trafic », a-t-elle ajouté. Bref, Google est indispensable. D'autant que, « si les éditeurs ne veulent pas que leur site apparaisse dans les résultats des moteurs, et la plupart d'entre eux le veulent », une mesure technique « leur permet automatiquement d'empêcher les moteurs d'indexer leur contenu ». « Google News ne fonctionne pas différemment: nous ne montrons que les titres et un court extrait du texte. Si les gens veulent lire l'article il doivent cliquer sur un lien qui renvoie au site du journal. Et si un journal ne veut pas faire partie de l'indexation de Google News, nous ôtons leur contenu de notre index, il leur suffit de demander », a conclu la porte-parole de Google. "
O mundo está mesmo a mudar... Não será pior que o direito (sob o risco de ficar torto...) mude também, bem como muitas cabecinhas!
José Mateus Cavaco Silva at September 26, 2006 18:57 |
link | comments
Tags: inteligência económica, perceptions management, mudança do modelo global
Tags: inteligência económica, perceptions management, mudança do modelo global
DAVOS
PORTUGAL PIOR AINDA
NA COMPETITIVIDADE...
" Global Competitiveness Report 2006-2007
Switzerland, Finland and Sweden are the world’s most competitive economies according to The Global Competitiveness Report 2006-2007, released by the World Economic Forum on 26 September 2006. Denmark, Singapore, the United States, Japan, Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom complete the top ten list, but the United States shows the most pronounced drop, falling from first to sixth.
The rankings are drawn from a combination of publicly available hard data and the results of the Executive Opinion Survey, a comprehensive annual survey conducted by the World Economic Forum, together with its network of Partner Institutes (leading research institutes and business organizations) in the countries covered by the Report. This year, over 11,000 business leaders were polled in a record 125 economies worldwide.
EXTRACT FROM THE PREFACE
by Professor Schwab
It is against a backdrop of burgeoning global imbalances, the collapse of the Doha round of trade negotiations and the revival of protectionist tendencies which are combining to create an atmosphere that highlights the precariousness of global economic growth prospects, that the World Economic Forum is bringing the latest edition of The Global Competitiveness Report. With the growing complexity of the global economy, the Report is a contribution to enhancing our understanding of the key factors which determine economic growth, and explain why some countries are much more successful than others in raising income levels and opportunities for their respective populations. By providing detailed assessments of the economic conditions of nations worldwide, the Report offers policymakers and business leaders an important tool in the formulation of improved economic policies and institutional reforms." Continuar a ler AQUI
 Country Rankings 2006-2007 |
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1. Switzerland 2. Finland 3. Sweden 4. Denmark 5. Singapore 6. US 7. Japan 8. Germany  Rankings in fullPDF I Excel |
9. Netherlands 10. UK 11. Hong Kong 12. Norway 13. Taiwan,China 14. Iceland 15. Israel 16. Canada Top 50 Index Country highlights |
| Report 2006-2007 Downloads |
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by Professor Schwab
" Les grands groupes restent hyper sexistes
Une étude dévoilée en avant première du Davos féminin qui se tiendra à Deauville début octobre révèle que la mixité au sein du top management mondial est loin d'être une cause entendue. Seulement 10% de femmes dans les instances dirigeantes des 300 plus grosses capitalisations mondiales.
La mixité au sein du top management des multinationales n'est pas encore la chose la mieux partagée au monde : le saint des saint des mastodontes du capitalisme reste essentiellement une affaire d'hommes. Pour preuve, les statistiques distillées mardi à Paris par le cabinet Ricol, Lasteyrie & Associés, où seuls 10% des sièges d'administrateurs et de membres de comité exécutif parmi les 100 premières capitalisations boursières des 3 grandes zones mondiales (Amérique du Nord, UE et Asie) sont actuellement occupés par des femmes.
Dans le détail, l'Amérique du Nord fait office de zone mieux-disante avec un taux de féminisation de ses instances dirigeantes de 15,8%, et même de 19% au Canada. Mieux. Un peu moins d'une société américaine sur trois compte plus de 20% de femmes aux plus hauts échelons internes. A contrario, l'Asie étale son sexisme avec un faible 2,1% ; la représentation la plus ridicule revient au Japon avec ses 1,4%. Au milieu, l'Europe communautaire affiche un modeste 7,6%. Mais les disparités sont criantes entre d'un côté la Finlande ou la Suède, oscillant entre 17 et 27%, et de l'autre, la Belgique ou l'Italie, avec moins de 3%.
Pour les grands groupes français de la sélection – 23 parmi les 100 retenus de la zone Europe, 2ème contingent après les 24 firmes britanniques – , la proportion est toujours dramatique : moins de 5% de femmes dans les « com'ex » et tout juste 7% dans les conseils d'administration. Ce qui au final donne une moyenne de 6,1%. Soit 1,5 point en-deçà de la moyenne européenne (7,6% rappelons-le). Soit également trois fois moins que le seuil des 20% recommandé par l'IFA, l'Institut français des administrateurs. « Chez nous, contrairement à l'Amérique du Nord, les politiques incitatives n'ont pas cours et le principe des quotas est jugé vexatoire, note pour LExpansion.com Sonia Bonnet-Bernard, associée chez Ricol, Lasteyrie. Ceci étant, ces résultats mêmes faibles demeurent encourageants. Il y a dix ans, on n'aurait même pas osé réaliser l'étude, tant la situation était catastrophique. Et puis les politiques semblent vouloir bouger sur ces questions ». Le classement par groupes sera dévoilé ..." Continuar a ler AQUI
José Mateus Cavaco Silva at September 26, 2006 18:34 |
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Tags: inteligência económica, portugal, curvas da economia
Tags: inteligência económica, portugal, curvas da economia
QUE FAZER COM A INTELIGÊNCIA ECONÓMICA ?
Intelligence Economique: Mode d'Emploi
Veille et intelligence économique en régions
Via Actulligence et Vedocci, quelques liens et articles sur la veille et l'intelligence économique dans quelques régions françaises :
- Le dispositif d'intelligence économique de la société alsacienne Nénuphar SA ( PDF)
- Les pratiques d'intelligence économique des entreprises alsaciennes ( PDF) suite à une enquête menée par Cogito
- Interview de Pierre Bourguignon et Christophe Thil , toujours avec Cogito
- L'intelligence économique, mode d'emploi par Philippe Epaillard de l' ARIST des Pays de la Loire
- La veille économique, une atitude d'écoute à la portée de tous
Intelligence économique : du concept à la pratique
"Il ne se passe plus une semaine sans qu'une conférence ou un colloque ne soit organisé sur le thème de l'intelligence économique. Car derrière ce terme un brin galvaudé, c'est de la survie des entreprises dont il est question. Surveiller, s'informer, anticiper, agir, prévenir... ou comment actionner les bons outils pour déployer sa stratégie.
Impossible d'aborder le sujet sans que les interlocuteurs, divers, se mettent sur leurs gardes : attention à ne pas tout mélanger ! Car si les acteurs de ce "marché" en émergence sont, souvent, issus du Renseignement ou de l'Armée, nous ne sommes pas dans un film d'espionnage et la guerre de l'information ne donne pas droit à tous les coups bas. De fait, l'IE est officiellement définie par Alain Juillet, "monsieur" intelligence économique du gouvernement, comme "la maîtrise et la protection de l'information stratégique pertinente pour tout acteur économique. [...] Elle a pour finalité la compétitivité de l'économie et la sécurité de l'État et des entreprises". Autrement dit, il s'agit de rechercher, analyser et diffuser toute l'information stratégique dont a besoin un chef d'entreprise."
Interview : Patrice Heyde : "L'intelligence économique est un concept, les PME ont besoin de concret"
"Patrice Heyde, directeur de l'Arist Rhône-Alpes, explique l'approche développée par ce service des Chambres de commerce et d'industrie de Rhône-Alpes, qui propose des prestations aux entreprises dans les domaines de l'innovation et de l'information stratégique."
Grand Merci à VTech
José Mateus Cavaco Silva at September 25, 2006 12:50 |
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Tags: inteligência económica, homeland security
Tags: inteligência económica, homeland security
AJUSTES DE CONTAS NO PC CHINÊS
" Shanghai: Le numéro un du PC limogé
Isabelle Tallec
Chen Liangyu, secrétaire du Parti communiste à Shanghai, a été démis de ses fonctions, dimanche, après la mise à jour d'un vaste scandale de corruption
Le président Hu Jintao fait le ménage à Shanghai. Le numéro un du Parti communiste chinois (PCC), Chen Liangyu, a été limogé dimanche à la suite d'un scandale de corruption dans le cadre de la gestion d’un fonds de pension de plus de 10 milliards de yuans (1 milliard d’euros). Une enquête préliminaire interne aurait mis à jour un vaste détournement de fonds publics pour un montant de 3,2 milliards de yuans (300 000 millions d’euros).
Selon l’agence officielle Chine nouvelle, Chen Liangyu serait impliqué dans "l’utilisation illégale de fonds du Département de la sécurité sociale et du travail de Shanghai, pour favoriser les intérêts de certains entrepreneurs qui ne respectent pas la loi, pour protéger ses subordonnés qui ont gravement violé les lois et la discipline, pour obtenir à ses proches des intérêts illégitimes en profitant de sa position".
Le scandale du fonds de pension de Shanghai avait auparavant conduit au limogeage de deux autres figures politiques de la ville, le responsable du fonds, Zhu Junyi, directeur du Département, et Qin Yu, responsable d'un district de la ville et ancien secrétaire du maire en 2002.
Campagnes anti-corruption
La corruption aurait déjà coûté à l’Etat chinois plus de 30 milliards de yuans (3 milliards d'euros) au premier semestre de cette année. Le PCC lance régulièrement des campagnes "mains propres" exigeant notamment de ses cadres dirigeants la transparence sur leurs vies privées ou leurs investissements. Près de 45 000 ont été exclus en 2005, sur les 70 millions de membres que compte le parti.
Mais selon certains analystes, Hu Jintao, qui a récemment appelé à une intensification de la lutte contre la corruption, en profiterait également pour se débarrasser de rivaux politiques à un an d'un congrès où se jouera sa réélection à la tête du parti.
Chen Liangyu, ingénieur de formation âgé de 60 ans et entré au parti en 1980, faisait partie de la vieille garde du prédécesseur du président chinois, Jiang Zemin, connue également comme "la clique de Shanghai". Suspendu de ses fonctions au sein du Bureau politique du comité central, il a été remplacé de manière intérimaire au poste de secrétaire du parti par Han Zheng, 52 ans, le maire de Shanghai. "
A ENERGIA COMO INSTRUMENTO
DA GEOPOLÍTICA DE PUTINE
Commissioner Piebalgs stated: "I take this announcement very seriously indeed. In order to ensure that companies are willing to invest in multi-billion € energy projects, a secure and predictable investment climate is necessary in Russia as in the EU or indeed any country. Without this, investment in new energy projects will be highly problematic, providing uncertainties for the world's future energy supply.
José Mateus Cavaco Silva at September 22, 2006 16:49 |
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Tags: mudança do modelo energético
Tags: mudança do modelo energético
WAHHABISMO, JIHAD E OUTRA GUERRA
Wahhabism: A Critical Essay
Book Description
Wahhabism, a peculiar interpretation of Islamic doctrine and practice that first arose in mid-eighteenth century Arabia, is sometimes regarded as simply an extreme or uncompromising form of Sunni Islam. This is incorrect, for at the very outset the movement was stigmatized as aberrant by the leading Sunni scholars of the day, because it rejected many of the traditional beliefs and practices of Sunni Islam and declared permissible warfare against all Muslims that disputed Wahhabi teachings. Nor can Wahhabism be regarded as a movement of "purification" or "renewal," as the source of the genuinely revivalist movements that were underway at the time. Not until Saudi oil money was placed at the disposal of its propagandists did Wahhabism find an echo outside the Arabian Peninsula.
The author discusses the rise of Wahhabism at the hands of Muhammad b. 'Abd al-Wahhab, a native of Najd in the eastern part of the Arabian peninsula, the doctrines he elaborated to serve as the basis of the Wahhabi sect, and the alliance he concluded with the Saudi family, then rulers of the principality of al-Dir'iya. An early result of this union was a creeping conquest of the Arabian Peninsula, misnamed as jihad; it culminated in the sacking of Taif and the occupation of Mecca in 1803. This first Wahhabi occupation was short-lived but Wahhabism triumphed anew with the foundation of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 1925. Among the extensions of Wahhabism beyond Arabia must be accounted the perverse and brutal regime of the Taliban in Afghanistan.
About the Author
Hamid Algar, born in England in 1940, received his formal training in Islamic studies at Cambridge University, from which he received his Ph.D. in 1965. Since 1965, he has been teaching at the University of California, Berkeley, a wide range of courses including tafsir, Sufism, Shi'ism, the history of Islam in Iran, Arabic, Persian and Turkish literature.
Wahhabi Islam: From Revival and Reform to Global Jihad
Book Description
Before 9/11, few Westerners had heard of Wahhabism. Today, it is a household word. Frequently mentioned in association with Osama bin Laden, Wahhabism is portrayed by the media and public officials as an intolerant, puritanical, militant interpretation of Islam that calls for the wholesale destruction of the West in a jihad of global proportions. In the first study ever undertaken of the writings of Wahhabism's founder, Muhammad Ibn Abd al-Wahhab (1702-1791), Natana DeLong-Bas shatters these stereotypes and misconceptions. Her reading of Ibn Abd al-Wahhab's works produces a revisionist thesis: Ibn Abd al-Wahhab was not the godfather of contemporary terrorist movements. Rather, he was a voice of reform, reflecting mainstream 18th-century Islamic thought. His vision of Islamic society was based upon a monotheism in which Muslims, Christians and Jews were to enjoy peaceful co-existence and cooperative commercial and treaty relations. Eschewing medieval interpretations of the Quran and hadith (sayings and deeds of the prophet Muhammad), Ibn Abd al-Wahhab called for direct, historically contextualized interpretation of scripture by both women and men. His understanding of theology and Islamic law was rooted in Quranic values, rather than literal interpretations. A strong proponent of women's rights, he called for a balance of rights between women and men both within marriage and in access to education and public space. In the most comprehensive study of Ibn Abd al-Wahhab's interpretation of jihad ever written, DeLong-Bas details a vision in which jihad is strictly limited to the self-defense of the Muslim community against military aggression.
Contemporary extremists like Osama bin Laden do not have their origins in Wahhabism, she shows. The hallmark jihadi focus on a cult of martyrdom, the strict division of the world into two necessarily opposing spheres, the wholescale destruction of both civilian life and property, and the call for global jihad are entirely absent from Ibn Abd al-Wahhab's writings. Instead, the militant stance of contemporary jihadism lies in adherence to the writings of the medieval scholar, Ibn Taymiyya, and the 20th century Egyptian radical, Sayyid Qutb. This pathbreaking book fills an enormous gap in the literature about Wahhabism by returning to the original writings of its founder. Bound to be controversial, it will be impossible to ignore.
War of the Web: Fighting the Online Jihad
Book DescriptionFew Americans realize to what extent the Internet aids and abets terrorism. In this fascinating and timely book, online terrorist hunter Dr. Jeremy Reynalds introduces us to a profoundly disturbing digital world, where killers troll for money and weapons and recruit new supporters at an alarming rate. Reynalds' true-life infiltration of these shadowy online networks makes for compelling reading.
* Reynalds documents several on-line terrorist ring "busts," run in conjunction closely with the FBI and law enforcement.
* Uncovers a world where anything is for sale, from weapons to drugs to access, with proceeds going to kill Americans and our allies.
* Provides exceptionally keen insight about how major terrorist organizations manipulate Western technologies to destroy us.
José Mateus Cavaco Silva at September 21, 2006 16:47 |
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Tags: perceptions management, inteligência estratégica, terrorismo
Tags: perceptions management, inteligência estratégica, terrorismo
Há Petróleo no Algarve...
A GRAÇA DE BOTA !
O senhor Mendes Bota, figura típica do PSD/Algarve anda preocupado, maça o Presidente da República e faz queixinhas a Bruxelas. Porque "Passaram oito meses sobre a minha primeira tomada de posição relativamente à intenção reiterada pelo Governo de adjudicar ao consórcio REPSOL/RWE a prospecção e a exploração de hidrocarbonetos(petróleo e gás natural) ao largo da costa do Algarve, a partir das 6 milhas marítimas para o exterior." O senhor Mendes Bota fala de oito meses... A decisão é do tempo do governo Barroso e do ministro Tavares na Economia.
" A queixa que apresentei formalmente junto da Comissão Europeia contra o Governo português" (portanto, junto dos serviços de Barroso contra uma decisão do mesmo Barroso enquanto PM de Portugal...) tem como motivo a visão de Bota de que uma "futura exploração de hidrocarbonetos, em substituição de uma indústria turística que entre eventualmente em colapso pelos danos de imagem e de inoperacionalidade que poderão advir dos impactos negativos ambientais da exploração corrente ou de ocorrências acidentais". Face a isto, só há uma coisa a fazer: Mande-se o homem passar umas férias ao Dubai... para se libertar de Vale do Lobo e do Van Gelder...
Mas a pérola de Bota é ainda outra: "Solicitei a intervenção do Presidente da República junto do Governo, para impedir um facto consumado"... Homem, nem a Cristo se pode pedir que impeça "factos consumados"... quanto mais a pobre cristão de Boliqueime! Isso é coisa que só está ao alcance de certos cirugiões plásticos para reparar certos "factos consumados" quando depois é necessário apresentar hímens intactos... Mas não é isso que está a pedir ao presidente Cavaco Silva, pois não? Afinal, talvez o que diz seja apenas um pequeno conflito com o português... De qualquer modo e como é costume, temos mais uma gracinha do Bota que tem sempre imensa graça.
REACÇÃO ISLÂMICA COLOCA
PAPA NA POSIÇÃO DE ALVO...
" The Pope as a High-Value Target
By Fred Burton
For the past several days, Muslim governments and religious leaders from both the Sunni and Shiite realms have been expressing their outrage over Pope Benedict XVI's controversial speech at Regensburg University. Reactions have varied from strictly political moves, such as the recalling of ambassadors, to more emotional statements and acts: The pope has been burned in effigy in India and Iraq, publicly likened to Hitler in Turkey and made the subject of fatwas -- issued by some marginal radical leaders in the United Kingdom and Somalia -- calling for his death. Not surprisingly, al Qaeda in Iraq has pledged a war against the "worshippers of the cross" in response to Benedict's speech.
This last threat has little significance in and of itself, as al Qaeda long ago declared war against "crusaders," and its node in Iraq has been attacking American, British, Australian, U.N. and other foreign targets for the past three years. But the statement is nevertheless a valid representation of wider jihadist sentiment concerning the Christian world in general and the pope in particular.
Jihadist attacks against Christian targets can be expected to continue in Muslim lands. This was to be expected even had the pope not quoted a passage from history that described the teachings of Mohammed as "evil and inhuman" -- though the violence may have been a factor in Benedict's decision to include this quote. However, the risks to Christian and Catholic targets in Muslim lands, like the risk to the pope personally, likely has ticked upward in the wake of the comments at Regensburg.
Given the symbolism of his position, the pontiff -- whoever that individual might be at a given time -- was already in the jihadist crosshairs, but the recent speech likely has moved Benedict to the forefront of jihadist consciousness and up a notch or two on the target lists of al Qaeda, its sympathizers and grassroots jihadists. We anticipate that attempts will be made on Benedict's life and -- should plots actually reach the execution phase -- they will, given the nature of the pope's public activities, be quite bloody.
The Backlash
Criticism of the pope's speech has come from all quarters of the Islamic world. Grand Ayatollah Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah, a Lebanese cleric who is Hezbollah's spiritual leader, said Sept. 15 that Benedict should personally retract his "false statements" about Islam. A Sunni leader, Sheikh Youssef al-Qardawi -- the head of the Islamic Scholars Association -- said, "We call on the pope, the pontiff, to apologize to the Islamic nation because he has insulted its religion and Prophet, its faith and Shariah without any justification."
Governments from Iraq to Indonesia have also expressed their anger. The deputy leader of Turkey's Justice and Development Party, Salih Kapusuz, compared the pontiff to Hitler and Mussolini. Malaysian Foreign Minister Syed Hamid Albar said Sept. 18 that Benedict's apology was insufficient and echoed Fadlallah's call for a retraction.
Toward the other end of the spectrum, some radical leaders have issued fatwas calling for the pope's death. So far, none have been issued by widely recognized Islamic scholars -- but since many radical religious leaders believe that insult to the Prophet Mohammed (and thus to Islam) is an offense warranting the death sentence, and it is widely held that the pope's words were in fact an insult to the Prophet and Islam, it seems only a matter of time before more prominent clerics and leaders issue similar fatwas. In the eyes of a radical jihadist, however, the issue of sourcing would carry little weight; the mere fact that a fatwa exists, regardless of who issued it, would likely be sufficient justification to act. Along these same lines, we would expect a statement from al Qaeda's senior leadership to be issued in the near future, likely transmitting a call for the group's supporters to strike at the pope or, possibly, a wider array of targets.
One of the fatwas -- issued by Sheikh Abu Bakar Hassan Malin of Somalia -- is worth examining. Malin said the pope's statement is as offensive to Islam as Salman Rushdie's Satanic Verses was, and called for Muslims to "hunt down" and kill the pope. The reference to Rushdie is a reminder of the lingering power of fatwas: Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's edict against Rushdie was issued shortly after his book was published in 1988 and remains in effect today. The author, of course, has maintained a high level of personal security since the fatwa was issued -- something the pope, as the leader of a billion Catholics worldwide, could never do.
The anti-papal backlash has encompassed violent acts as well as words. At least seven Christian churches were either firebombed or shot at in the West Bank and Gaza; another church was bombed in Basra, Iraq. And a nun who worked in a hospital in Somalia was shot and killed in the days following Benedict's speech.
Violent protests of the pope's statement thus far have not reached the magnitude of the cartoon controversy that erupted earlier this year. That said, it must be noted that the massive reaction to the cartoons lagged their initial publication in a Danish newspaper by several months; during the interim, groups of Muslims who had objected to the cartoons played up the issue in Muslim countries. In other words, using the cartoon controversy as a precedent, it is too early to judge the total reaction to Benedict's statements. It is possible that a second wave of responses, more violent than the first, could be set off.
Anti-pope demonstrations that are expected this week in numerous parts of the Middle East and South Asia could give important indications about the trajectory of the popular response. This trajectory could be in keeping with the tone of the initial fatwas -- which have been directed at the pope personally rather than more generally at Christians or Catholics -- or it could be more encompassing. It will be important to read the wording of any future fatwas carefully for indications of a change in emphasis or authorized targets.
A History of Violence
Whatever the future may bring, Christians living in Muslim areas clearly have been at some risk from jihadists for years. Jihadist attacks against Christians in places like Pakistan, Egypt, Indonesia, Bangladesh and the Philippines clearly predate the pope's speech and, in some respects, may have played into the motivations for giving it. This history also demonstrates that a certain threshold of risk would have persisted, independent of the pontiff's controversial statement.
There also is a clear history of jihadists having targeted the pope himself.
The most serious attack in recent memory, of course, came -- not from a jihadist, but from a Turkish gunman -- on May 13, 1981, when Pope John Paul II was shot twice in the abdomen as he entered St. Peter's Square, riding in an open-air convertible. There have been competing claims about the motives and actors involved in the assassination attempt: Some say it was orchestrated by the Bulgarian intelligence service because of John Paul's activism against communism; others claim the gunman, Mehmet Ali Agca, was associated with a Turkish nationalist group called the Gray Wolves. No definitive proof has ever been produced, however, that Agca was acting in conjunction with a group.
Another assassination attempt came almost exactly a year later: On May 12, 1982, an ultraconservative Spanish priest in Fatima, Portugal, approached John Paul with the intent of stabbing him with a bayonet. The priest, who later said he felt the pope was an agent of Moscow, was stopped and arrested before he could reach the pontiff.
Jihadists with links to al Qaeda also play a role in the history of plots against the pope.
In 1994 and early January 1995, a militant cell in Manila, led by Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and his nephew Abdel Basit, was planning a number of operations, including Operation Bojinka. Their plans came to light on Jan. 6, 1995, when a batch of improvised explosives they were brewing set their apartment on fire. Philippine authorities arrested Abdul Hakim Murad, one of Basit's co-conspirators, while he was trying to re-enter the apartment and retrieve a laptop computer. The computer, it was later found, contained a trove of information; the files and other evidence retrieved in the investigation brought Philippine authorities to the conclusion that the cell not only was developing an ambitious plot to take down multiple U.S. airlines, but also had plans in the works to assassinate U.S. President Bill Clinton and Pope John Paul II.
The pope was scheduled to visit the Philippines on Jan. 12, 1995.
It likely was no coincidence that the apartment where the fire broke out was situated only a few hundred meters from the Papal Nuncio in Manila (where the pope stayed during his trip) and along the route the papal motorcade logically would take to reach and depart from the nuncio. (The pope's visit took place as scheduled, but he traveled by helicopter rather than motorcade as a result of the findings.) Other evidence in the investigation showed that the suspects had collected garb worn by Catholic priests, Bibles, rosaries, a large crucifix and a photo poster of the pope. From the interrogation of Murad and another cell member, Wali Amin Shah, it is believed that the group planned to kill the pontiff by placing a large bomb under the road, but the priestly clothing and other evidence indicates that a backup plan might have involved a suicide bomber or gunman disguised as a priest.
Philippine police reported that shortly after his arrest, Murad said there were "two Satans that must be destroyed: the pope and America." The statements of Osama bin Laden and other al Qaeda figures, with their frequent references to "Crusaders," is evidence that this mindset remains unchanged.
Hardened Targets and Collateral Damage
Following the assassination attempts in the 1980s, personal security measures for the pontiff were stepped up. For instance, travel in an open-air convertible was abandoned in favor of the so-called "Popemobile," a mobile, raised platform protected by bullet-resistant glass. This increased security against lightly armed assailants is likely what caused the Manila cell to consider using a large bomb in their later plot.
Security for the pope's residential quarters and around the Vatican as a whole also was increased in the 1980s, and further upgraded following the 9/11 attacks and growing recognition of the scope of the jihadist threat in Europe. Today, visitors who want to enter St. Peter's Basilica must pass through screening points equipped with magnetometers. Physical security measures have been visibly ratcheted up in the wake of last week's speech as well, with the addition of random bag searches for visitors.
Unlike many high-profile figures, the pope does not truly have the option of avoiding public appearances when he is believed to be under threat. And due to the nature of his office, he can be expected to draw large crowds whenever he makes a scheduled public appearance. As past assassination attempts have shown, it is at precisely these moments that the pope's movements are most predictable -- and therefore, when he is the most vulnerable to attack.
As the situation stands now, the increase in the pontiff's personal security measures means any serious attempt on his life would have to include steps to overcome security -- either by stealth or, more likely, with overwhelming force. That, combined with the notion that his appearance inevitably will draw large crowds, means that any actual moves to assassinate the pope likely would result in many collateral deaths -- a valuable secondary consideration, from a jihadist perspective.
An inflection point in the threat environment may come in November, when Benedict plans to visit Turkey. Presumably, tensions would be running high during this visit regardless of recent events: As Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, Benedict developed a reputation as a Vatican hard-liner who spoke out against Turkey's admission to the European Union. The papal security team would also be very mindful of the fact that John Paul's would-be assassin, Agca, is Turkish.
The reaction to Benedict's recent speech has done nothing but add to such concerns. Politically, it is never comfortable visiting a country whose ruling party has compared you to Hitler. And, in fact, Agca on Sept. 20 issued a statement through his lawyer, urging the pope to cancel his visit: "As someone who knows these matters well, I say your life is in danger. Don't come to Turkey."
This is not to say that the pontiff would be demonstrably safer if he confined himself to predominantly Christian or Western countries. As the plans discovered in the mostly Catholic Philippines showed, the jihadist threat can crop up in seemingly unlikely locales. This is true even for Italy. Since 9/11, Italian authorities have disrupted several jihadist plots. One of these, discovered last summer, reportedly involved plans to attack cathedrals in Cremona and Milan; another, thwarted earlier this year, allegedly would have targeted the Basilica of San Petronio in Bologna.
Clearly, jihadists are interested in hitting symbolic Catholic targets in a number of regions, and there is perhaps no target more symbolic than the pope himself. Benedict's statements and the media coverage and outrage they have generated might already have moved the pontiff higher on jihadist hit-lists, and the risk might increase still further if prominent Muslim leaders issue fatwas in the near future.
DA CORRUPÇÃO EM PORTUGAL
«Portugal manteve, no ano passado, a tendência registada desde 1998 de deterioração da sua posição relativa internacional no controlo da corrupção. De acordo com o relatório publicado ontem pelo Banco Mundial sobre os indicadores mundiais de governação, a pontuação ao nível do controlo da corrupção - um dos seis indicadores analisados neste relatório - baixou de 1,20 pontos em 2004 para 1,13 em 2005.» Diz o Banco Mundial, segundo o Diário de Notícias.
Ao que Vasco Pulido Valente tece um certeiro comentário:
«Quem lê livros não ignora que o nosso amável Portugal nunca deixou de protestar contra a corrupção: dos regimes, dos governos, do rei, da corte, da Igreja, dos partidos, dos políticos, dos padres, dos juízes, da administração central, das câmaras, da banca, da indústria, do comércio e da polícia. Uma sociedade pequena e pobre (e, por cima, católica) gera necessariamente corrupção. O número, o anonimato e a distância reforçam o rigor; a estreiteza, a convivência e a proximidade criam o mundo paralelo dos "compadres". Escrevi um dia que Portugal só "funcionava" pela corrupção. Caiu o céu. Infelizmente, é assim.» in Público e, estupidamente, sem link.
José Mateus Cavaco Silva at September 20, 2006 18:47 |
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Tags: complexo salazarento e neo-corpo, visto de lisboa
Tags: complexo salazarento e neo-corpo, visto de lisboa
SOBRE A DERROTA DA ESQUERDA NA SUÉCIA
Défaite de la gauche en Suède: les enjeux
Suède: l'État-providence dans une perspective historique
Ce que la gauche française peut apprendre du New Labour, selon Giddens
TECNOLOGIAS CHAVE EM 2010
François Loos, le ministre de l'Industrie, a dévoilé lundi les résultats de l'étude "Technologies clés 2010" qui présentent et analysent les 83 technologies importantes qui pourront... >Suite
José Mateus Cavaco Silva at September 20, 2006 18:24 |
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Tags: inteligência estratégica
Tags: inteligência estratégica
OLHO E ESCRITA DE PINTOR
Noto e anoto dois posts interessantíssimos do Rui Perdigão, no LUAR... sobre certas postas de intimidade traumatizada e sobre o atraso na mudança. Aqui ficam, sem comentários (só por desnecessários). Abraços, Rui.
Diários e espelhos
Há blogues com apontamentos de uma intimidade tão traumatizada, que quando os visitamos fazemo-lo com o receio de apanhar alguém todo nu, de nádegas para o ar, expectante.
--
Bom… isto da “mudança”...
... devia ter começado vai para uns quinze anos - mas, claro está, mais vale tarde do que nunca. Simplexificando, ao que pressentimos, temos para uns anitos, considerando que ainda há uns sapos por engolir, que sabem nadar, atarefados a salvar uns ratos apanhados na torrente das “reformas“.
JORNAIS, QUE FUTURO?
A guerra do Sol e do Expresso veio, entre nós, chamar a atenção para o problema do futuro dos jornais... A evolução das vendas está longe de ser positiva (e os gratuitos não nisso qualquer responsabilidade pois o fenómeno é anterior...), as receitas publicitárias tornam-se escassas enquanto a evolução dos custos apresenta uma curva nada solidária com as anteriores. As fontes de informação para o cidadão diversificam-se imenso e os suportes para os anunciantes multiplicam-se... A própria net surge cada vez mais atractiva para anunciantes e leitores. É altura de começar a repensar todo o "jornal"... Richard Watson, em texto publicado pela Fast Company, procura equacionar o problema:
" The Future of Newspapers
by Richard Watson
In this age of user-generated content and citizen journalism it might seem like newspapers are becoming yesterday's news, but there's more life in them yet.
Someone (I think it was Kevin Kelly) once said that in the future all media will be free -- we will only pay for functionality and personalization. I'd like to disagree -- but I can't. I can't think of a single reason why this statement won't be true, especially if you take a liberal view of what constitutes payment, functionality and personalization.
Newspapers are a good example. In 1960, 80 percent of Americans read a daily newspaper. Today the figure is closer to 50 percent -- and it's falling. Globally it's the same story. Between 1995-2003, worldwide newspaper circulation fell by five percent. In 1892 London had 14 evening papers. Now it has only one. Also in the UK, a staggering 19 percent of all newspapers delivered to retailers in the first quarter of 2006 came back as returns and three national newspaper titles had return (non sale) rates approaching 50 percent.
If these trends continue, the last newspaper will be probably be produced by Grace Murdoch sometime in the year 2040. (...) "
INDIGNAÇÃO CONTRA A PRESENÇA DE AHMADINEJAD EM NEW YORK
" Iranian activists demand the arrest of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
Homa Arjomand, Coordinator of the International Campaign Against Sharia Court in Canada is calling a press conference where she and other Iranian activists will demand the arrest of President Ahmadinejad for crimes against humanity.
"We declare that President Ahmadinejad has violated Articles 9, 10, 11 and 19 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.", said Homa Arjomand. "We therefore call on the United Nations to arrest President Ahmadinejad for violating human rights in Iran".
The protestors claim President Ahmadinejad is responsible for the assassinations and executions of tens of Iranian activists both in Iran and abroad.
"It is a disgrace to the United Nations to permit this man, with his record on human rights, the privilege to speak at this assembly, especially when he has taken the same rights from people in Iran and in tens of cases he has also taken their lives", added Homa Arjomand. " Ler AQUI
A DESINFORMAÇÃO COMO ARMA DECISIVA NA GUERRA DO TERRORISMO
" Iran’s VEVAK: Disinformation, Inc.
Professor Daniel M. Zucker - 9/17/2006
For the past twenty-seven years, we in the West, especially in the United States, have been on the receiving end of a very, very sophisticated campaign of disinformation dished out by the Islamic Republic of Iran▓s Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS), or in Farsi √ Vezarat-e Ettela▒at va Amniat-e Keshvar (VEVAK). VEVAK learned its methodology from the Soviet KGB and many of the Islamist revolutionaries who supported Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini actually studied at Moscow▓s Patrice Lumumba Friendship University, the Oxford of terrorism. Documented Iranian alumni include the current Supreme Leader ≈the faqih≈Ayatollah Ali KhameneМ, under whose Velayat-e Faqih (Rule of the Islamic Jurisprudent) apparatus it has traditionally operated. Its current head is Cabinet Minister Hojatoleslam Gholam-Hussein Mohseni-Ezhei, a graduate of Qom▓s Haqqani School, noted for its extremist position advocating violence against enemies and strict clerical control of society and government. The Ministry is very well funded and its charge, like that of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps≈the Pasdaran≈is to guard the revolutionary Islamic Iranian regime at all costs and under all contingencies.
From the KGB playbook, VEVAK learned the art of disinformation. It▓s not so difficult to learn: tell the truth 80% of the time and lie 20%. Depending on how well a VEVAK agent wants to cover his/her tracks, the ratio may go up to 90/10, but it never drops below the 80/20 mark as such would risk suspicion and possible detection. The regime in Teheran has gone to great lengths to place its agents in locations around the world. Many of these operatives have been educated in the West, including the U.K. and the United States. Iranian government agencies such as embassies, consulates, Islamic cultural centers, and airline offices regularly provide cover for the work of VEVAK agents who dress well and are clean shaven, and move comfortably within our society. In this country, because of the severance of diplomatic relations, the principal site of VEVAK activities begins at the offices of Iran▓s Permanent Mission to the UN in New York.
Teheran has worked diligently to place its operatives in important think tanks and government agencies in the West. Some of its personnel have been recruited while in prison through torture or more often through bribery, or a combination of both. Others are Islamist revolutionaries that have been set up to look like dissidents≈often having been arrested and imprisoned, but released for ⌠medical reasons■. The clue to detecting the fake ⌠dissident■ is to read carefully what he/she writes, and to ask why this vocal ⌠dissident■ was released from prison when other real dissidents have not been released, indeed have been grievously tortured and executed. Other agents have been placed in this country for over twenty-five years to slowly go through the system and rise to positions of academic prominence due to their knowledge of Farsi and Shia Islam or Islamist fundamentalism.
One of the usual tactics of VEVAK is to co-opt academia to its purposes. Using various forms of bribery, academics are bought to defend the Islamic Republic or slander its enemies. Another method is to assign bright students to train for academic posts as specialists in Iranian or Middle East affairs. Once established, (...) "
Continuar a ler AQUI
José Mateus Cavaco Silva at September 20, 2006 14:53 |
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Tags: inteligência estratégica, terrorismo
Tags: inteligência estratégica, terrorismo
POLÉMICA PAPA / ISLÃO
" Faith, Reason and Politics:
Parsing the Pope's Remarks
By George Friedman
On Sept. 12, Pope Benedict XVI delivered a lecture on "Faith, Reason and the University" at the
Benedict went on to say -- and it is important to read a long passage to understand his point -- that:
"In the seventh conversation edited by Professor Khoury, the emperor touches on the theme of the holy war. The emperor must have known that Sura 2,256 reads: 'There is no compulsion in religion.' According to the experts, this is one of the suras of the early period, when Mohammed was still powerless and under threat. But naturally the emperor also knew the instructions, developed later and recorded in the Quran, concerning holy war. Without descending to details, such as the difference in treatment accorded to those who have the 'Book' and the 'infidels,' he addresses his interlocutor with a startling brusqueness, a brusqueness which leaves us astounded, on the central question about the relationship between religion and violence in general, saying: 'Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached.' The emperor, after having expressed himself so forcefully, goes on to explain in detail the reasons why spreading the faith through violence is something unreasonable. Violence is incompatible with the nature of God and the nature of the soul. 'God,' he says, 'is not pleased by blood -- and not acting reasonably is contrary to God's nature. Faith is born of the soul, not the body. Whoever would lead someone to faith needs the ability to speak well and to reason properly, without violence and threats ... To convince a reasonable soul, one does not need a strong arm, or weapons of any kind, or any other means of threatening a person with death ...'
"The decisive statement in this argument against violent conversion is this: Not to act in accordance with reason is contrary to God's nature. The editor, Theodore Khoury, observes: 'For the emperor, as a Byzantine shaped by Greek philosophy, this statement is self-evident. But for Muslim teaching, God is absolutely transcendent.'"
The reaction of the Muslim world -- outrage -- came swift and sharp over the passage citing Manuel II: "Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." Obviously, this passage is a quote from a previous text -- but equally obviously, the pope was making a critical point that has little to do with this passage.
The essence of this passage is about forced conversion. It begins by pointing out that Mohammed spoke of faith without compulsion when he lacked political power, but that when he became strong, his perspective changed. Benedict goes on to make the argument that violent conversion -- from the standpoint of a Byzantine shaped by Greek philosophy, and therefore shaped by the priority of reason -- is unacceptable. For someone who believes that God is absolutely transcendent and beyond reason, the argument goes, it is acceptable.
Clearly, Benedict knows that Christians also practiced forced conversion in their history. He also knows that the Aristotelian tendency is not unique to Christianity. In fact, that same tendency exists in the Muslim tradition, through thinkers such as al-Farabi or Avicenna. These stand in relation to Islam as Thomas Aquinas does to Christianity or Maimonides to Judaism. And all three religions struggle not only with the problem of God versus science, but with the more complex and interesting tripolar relationship of religion as revelation, reason and dogmatism. There is always that scriptural scholar, the philosopher troubled by faith and the local clergyman who claims to speak for God personally.
Benedict's thoughtful discussion of this problem needs to be considered. Also to be considered is why the pope chose to throw a hand grenade into a powder keg, and why he chose to do it at this moment in history. The other discussion might well be more worthy of the ages, but this question -- what did Benedict do, and why did he do it -- is of more immediate concern, for he could have no doubt what the response, in today's politically charged environment, was going to be.
A Deliberate Move
Let's begin with the obvious: Benedict's words were purposely chosen. The quotation of Manuel II was not a one-liner, accidentally blurted out. The pope was giving a prepared lecture that he may have written himself -- and if it was written for him, it was one that he carefully read. Moreover, each of the pope's public utterances are thoughtfully reviewed by his staff, and there is no question that anyone who read this speech before it was delivered would recognize the explosive nature of discussing anything about Islam in the current climate. There is not one war going on in the world today, but a series of wars, some of them placing Catholics at risk.
It is true that Benedict was making reference to an obscure text, but that makes the remark all the more striking; even the pope had to work hard to come up with this dialogue. There are many other fine examples of the problem of reason and faith that he could have drawn from that did not involve Muslims, let alone one involving such an incendiary quote. But he chose this citation and, contrary to some media reports, it was not a short passage in the speech. It was about 15 percent of the full text and was the entry point to the rest of the lecture. Thus, this was a deliberate choice, not a slip of the tongue.
As a deliberate choice, the effect of these remarks could be anticipated. Even apart from the particular phrase, the text of the speech is a criticism of the practice of conversion by violence, with a particular emphasis on Islam. Clearly, the pope intended to make the point that Islam is currently engaged in violence on behalf of religion, and that it is driven by a view of God that engenders such belief. Given Muslims' protests (including some violent reactions) over cartoons that were printed in a Danish newspaper, the pope and his advisers certainly must have been aware that the Muslim world would go ballistic over this. Benedict said what he said intentionally, and he was aware of the consequences. Subsequently, he has not apologized for what he said -- only for any offense he might have caused. He has not retracted his statement.
So, why this, and why now?
Political
Consider the fact that the pope is not only a scholar but a politician -- and a good one, or he wouldn't have become the pope. He is not only a head of state, but the head of a global church with a billion members. The church is no stranger to geopolitics. Muslims claim that they brought down communism in
Thus, there are at least two ways to view Benedict's speech politically.
One view derives from the fact that the pope is watching the U.S.-jihadist war. He can see it is going badly for the
The statement that Benedict made certainly did not hurt U.S. President George W. Bush in American politics. Bush has been trying to portray the war against Islamist militants as a clash of civilizations, one that will last for generations and will determine the future of mankind. Benedict, whether he accepts Bush's view or not, offered an intellectual foundation for Bush's position. He drew a sharp distinction between Islam and Christianity and then tied Christianity to rationality -- a move to overcome the tension between religion and science in the West. But he did not include Islam in that matrix. Given that there is a war on and that the pope recognizes Bush is on the defensive, not only in the war but also in domestic American politics, Benedict very likely weighed the impact of his words on the scale of war and
It is not entirely clear that Pope Benedict intended an intellectual intervention in the war. The church obviously did not support the invasion of
This perspective would explain the timing of the pope's statement, but the general thrust of his remarks has more to do with
There is an intensifying tension in Europe over the powerful wave of Muslim immigration. Frictions are high on both sides. Europeans fear that the Muslim immigrants will overwhelm their native culture or form an unassimilated and destabilizing mass. Muslims feel unwelcome, and some extreme groups have threatened to work for the conversion of
As has been established, the pope knew that his remarks at
It is obvious that Benedict delivered a well-thought-out statement. It is also obvious that the
The question is how far Benedict is going to go with this. His predecessor took on the Soviet Union and then, after the collapse of communism, started sniping at the
From an intellectual and political standpoint, therefore, Benedict's statement was an elegant move. He has strengthened his political base and perhaps legitimized a stronger response to anti-Catholic rhetoric in the Muslim world. And he has done it with superb misdirection. His options are open: He now can move away from the statement and let nature take its course, repudiate it and challenge Muslim leaders to do the same with regard to anti-Catholic statements or extend and expand the criticism of Islam that was implicit in the dialogue.
The pope has thrown a hand grenade and is now observing the response. We are assuming that he knew what he was doing; in fact, we find it impossible to imagine that he did not. He is too careful not to have known. Therefore, he must have anticipated the response and planned his partial retreat.
It will be interesting to see if he has a next move. The answer to that may be something he doesn't know himself yet. "
O "suspirador", ultimamente, tem estado muito activo... Aida bem, amigo. Activo e bem acutilante como se pode ver pelo exemplos abaixo citados:
" Pinto Monteiro...
... foi nomeado Procurador Geral da República. Desejamos-lhe as maiores felicidades, e que mantenha o mesmo carácter frontal e combativo a que nos tem habituado.
Para já, são curiosas as reacções, por essa blogosfera fora, das mesmas pessoas que, gozando com quem leva a sério o Loose Change, acreditam que a nomeação do PGR resulta de uma obscura conspiração maçónica. Vai-se a ver e são os iluminatti quem manda em S. Bento!
No fim de contas...
Tudo se resume a este estranho paradoxo: o Islão acabou por ilustrar na rua a citação de Bento XVI.
Após a Alemanha, Bwin cilindrada em França
GOVERNO FRANCÊS APLICA NOVAS SANÇÕES AOS JOGOS ILEGAIS ONLINE
Nouvelles sanctions pour les jeux d'argent illégaux
Le gouvernement a décidé de renforcer les sanctions financières contre la publicité pour les jeux d'argent illégaux, qui pourront atteindre plusieurs centaines de milliers d'euros. C'est ce qu'a annoncé mardi 19 septembre le ministre délégué au Budget Jean-François Copé. Durée: 0mn47
PARIS (AFP), 2006-09-19 16:12:34
The Islamist Response to the Pope's Comments
By Douglas Farah
I am neither Catholic nor Jewish, but it strikes me as obscene that Islamists would respond with pre-arranged violence to the Pope's recent comments on the nature of Islam and the acceptability of forced conversions, or conversions by the sword. For a look at the historical context of the original remarks, see Andrew Bostom's article here.
Wahhabism, and many branches of Shi'ite Islam not only preach death to Jews and Christians and other unbelievers, they have, for decades, placed such teaching in the textbooks of school children, starting from their entrance into school.
The routine teaching of Jews as pigs and monkeys, the multiple references in the Koran to killing unbelievers and the extensive role of Islam in conquering and enslaving entire peoples (thus, eventually, spreading Islam), all bear out the comments made six centuries ago in the discussion the Pope referenced. That the Pope's decision to discuss this debate in an academic setting led to violence in the name of Islam seems to only confirm those who practice that violence accept that interpretation of the Koran. My full blog is here.
Daily Standard: Practice Makes Terror
By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross
I have a new article in the Daily Standard today that examines the rash of "false alarms" on airlines since authorities announced that they foiled the transatlantic air terror plot on Aug. 10. In it, I argue that some of these false alarms may not have been false, and that open societies like the U.S. will inherently find it difficult to guard against casings and dry runs. An excerpt:
ALTHOUGH THERE WAS AMPLE REASON before the transatlantic plot to believe that flights were being cased, none of these incidents were remembered as casings. Likewise, the various incidents that have occurred since then may well be remembered as a rash of false alarms.But some of these alarms may not have been false. In any dry run or casing, terrorists will engage in aberrant behavior similar to that displayed by the passengers aboard Northwest Airlines Flight 42 (or United Airlines Flight 925, for that matter). If terrorists engaged in a dry run or casing have a modicum of foresight, they'll have reasonable explanations for their travel and their behavior. They may in fact not even have to do that much: by August 25, the New York Times declared that the 12 Northwest Airlines Flight 42 passengers were "possibly unaware of international flight rules and security concerns." This seems overly assuming. Is it likely that a dozen international passengers were unaware that they shouldn't use cell phones after takeoff and walk in the aisles with the seatbelt sign still on?
If the terrorists have reasonable stories and don't possess weapons or the means to blow up a flight, their dry run or casing will likely be remembered as nothing more than a false alarm. Actions of this kind are fairly low-risk ventures for terrorists from which they derive two distinct advantages. One is that they can test the limits of our tolerance, determining what behavior will raise red flags and what will not. The second advantage is that, as an increasing number of law enforcement sources suspect, terrorists or their sympathizers may be trying to catch the Federal Air Marshals' attention in order to determine who the marshals are.
THE LIKELIHOOD THAT TERRORISTS can offer plausible excuses and walk away unscathed when caught in the midst of a casing or dry run points to an inherent point of vulnerability for open societies.
Read the whole article here.
State Department Endorses Pakistan's Retreat
By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross
I have previously written about the major blow inflicted on the U.S. by Pakistan's peace deal that cedes Waziristan to terrorist factions, and the Pakistani government's subsequent decision to release 2,500 foreign prisoners. Both of these are serious developments that do major damage to U.S. counterterrorism efforts. Yet assistant secretary of state Richard Boucher endorsed the deal in a speech at the School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, D.C.:
Noting that the [Pakistani] government had carved out a new strategy to deal with the cross-border activities of Taliban and Al Qaeda sympathisers, Mr Boucher said: “The agreement really has the potential to work.” He said he believed the deal created an opportunity for local leaders to get hold of the problem of terrorism and it could enable the government “to get a political handle on this and enlist its citizens in the fight against terror”. The US, he said, understood that to effectively control the Afghan border, Pakistan needed “cooperation from local tribes and they are really trying to get in.” Mr Boucher said the US hoped that the agreement would leave a positive impact on the situation in the regions that are run by local tribal chiefs since the British days. “Instead of challenging the tribal chiefs, Pakistan has signed an agreement with them and we believe that it is a good effort,” he said. The official said the agreement would allow the local administration and the tribal chiefs to play a positive role in the development of their areas and also in restoring peace and security to the region. The agreement, he said, would restrict the movement of Taliban and would not permit the presence of Al Qaeda and its sympathisers in the tribal belt. “Talibanisation will not be allowed, in the area or in the cities near the tribal region,” he said. Mr Boucher said the government had made the tribal chiefs accept all these conditions before signing the agreement.
All arguments that Boucher advanced in favor of the Pakistani deal are so weak that they border on disingenuous. Some will take this as another sign of the State Department's general cluelessness on terrorism -- a cluelessness that often cannot be denied.
But I have a somewhat different interpretation of Boucher's statements. I think he probably understands that recent developments in Pakistan spell nothing but danger for the U.S., but is more concerned about seriously embarrassing Musharraf and thus further undermining his grip on power. (This is the same reason that U.S. and British leaders immediately hailed Pakistan's contributions when they announced that the transatlantic air plot had been foiled on Aug. 10; these contributions were exaggerated, but politicians felt that it would be counterproductive if Pakistan came under fire for the plot's connection to that country.) The view of Boucher and other officials who refuse to publicly condemn the developments in Pakistan is that, bad as Musharraf has been of late, things would be far worse if he lost power. In a critical Muslim nation with nuclear weapons, it would be disastrous if a pro-Western military dictator were replaced by al-Qaeda-linked fundamentalists.
REFERÊNCIAS DE INFORMAÇÃO
Se procura portais sectoriais especializados, sites de referência sobre management ou ainda bancos de dados, o melhor é dar uma vista de olhos aqui:
Les 1000 meilleurs portails d'affaires sectoriels
Les 1000 sites de référence du management
Liste thématique des banques de données
FMI E BANCO MUNDIAL EM BOLANDAS
Instrumentos fundamentais (tal como a ONU e outros) do modelo global saído da II Guerra Mundial e construído nos anos quarenta, o Fundo Monetário Internacional e o Banco Mundial começam a encontrar - tal como o modelo de que fazem parte e que organizam - os seus limites. E tenta adaptar-se... Resta saber se tal adaptação não será apenas uma morte lenta e uma forma de sair de cena, deixando lugar para o aparecimento de qualquer coisa mais racional e coerente com as mudanças radicais destes tempos. Ponto da situação.
" Les membres du FMI ont approuvé lundi à une large majorité une vaste réforme interne, la plus importande l'histoire de cette institution née à Bretton Woods en 1944. Elle vise à donner davantage de poids aux économies émergentes au sein pour adapter le FMI au XXIe siècle, comme l'a annoncé le ministre allemand des inances, Peer Steinbrück. Le projet, approuvé par 90,6% des voix, prévoit de relever les droits de vote de la Chine, de la Corée du Sud, du Mexique et de la Turquie, qui représentent à eux quatre 1,8% du total des suffrages. En contrepartie, la part relative de pays puissants, tels le Royaume-Uni, la France, et les Etats-Unis va baisser de manière marginale.
Le projet comprendra aussi, dans un deuxième temps, une redéfinition de la formule de calcul des quote-parts qui déterminent les droits de vote, les contributions au budget et l'accès aux financements pour tous les pays membres. Il s'agit de trouver une nouvelle formule plus claire et plus simple permettant de mieux refléter le véritable poids économique des pays. Elle devrait voir le jour à l'automne 2008 au plus tard.
Cette transformation du FMI n'est pas vue d'un bon oeil par tous. Les pays d'Amérique latine redoutent d'être les grands perdants de la redistribution des votes, qui devrait surtout favoriser les économies émergentes d'Asie. Et les petits pays européens, de leur côté, ont peur de faire les frais de l'opération en étant contraints de céder une part importante de leurs droits de vote. Actuellement, la Belgique, les Pays-Bas ou la Suède pèsent autant ou plus que la Chine, l'Inde ou le Brésil. "
E que acontece logo de seguida...? A política anti-corrupção do FMI é posta em causa e recusada e a estratégia de perdão das dívidas considerada insuficiente... Veja-se.
" Les pays pauvres se rebellent contre la Banque mondiale et le FMI
Ils contestent la mise en oeuvre de la stratégie d'allègement de leur dette, ainsi que la stratégie anti corruption mise en oeuvre par Paul Wolfowitz, président de la Banque mondiale. (...)
Plus globalement, les pays pauvres regrettent que la Banque mondiale et le FMI imposent des conditions très strictes sur la manière dont les fonds dégagés par le programme doivent être utilisés. Ils déplorent aussi le fait que les critères pour obtenir des allègements supplémentaires soient trop sévères. Or, comme l'a rappelé le ministre des finances du Niger, « il ne faut pas se faire d'illusions : même si on annule la totalité de la dette, il faudra des ressources additionnelles pour financer le développement ».
L'aversion des pays pauvres à une trop grande ingérence dans leurs affaires intérieure est aussi palpable dans les tensions qui ont accueilli le plan anti-corruption de Paul Wolfowitz, le président de la Banque mondiale. Ce dernier, en poste depuis quinze mois, a fait de ce sujet sa priorité et souhaite refuser les aides aux pays qui présentent un risque important que l'argent aille « dans les poches et les comptes en banque des dirigeants », plutôt qu'aux populations dans le besoin. Ainsi, des programmes destinés au Congo ou à l'Inde ont déjà été gelés.
Les pays en développement n'apprécient pas d'être montrés du doigt. Le président de la Banque centrale du Brésil a par exemple rappelé que « le développement ne peut être imposé à un pays, mais doit être réalisé par un pays ». Et le ministre chinois des finances a appelé l'institution multilatérale à ne pas « politiser » ses activités. Même les pays développés ont mis un bémol à la frénésie anti-dessous de table de Wolfowitz. Ainsi, Thierry Breton, ministre français de l'économie, a prévenu que « la tentation de se retirer, même partiellement, n'est pas le bon chemin pour s'attaquer aux problèmes de corruption ». Instance dirigeante de la Banque, le comité de développement a finalement insisté dimanche sur « l'importance de la surveillance par le conseil d'administration de cette stratégie lorsqu'elle sera développée et mise en œuvre » pour tenter de faire passer la pilule. "
José Mateus Cavaco Silva at September 18, 2006 19:26 |
link | comments
Tags: mudança do modelo global
Tags: mudança do modelo global
DEPENDÊNCIA ENERGÉTICA AGRAVA-SE
Moscou sanctionne Shell et menace Total
La compagnie britannico-néerlandaise voit son permis d'exploiter un gisement retiré pour déficience environnementale. D'aucuns veulent y voir un lobbying en sous-main du géant local, Gazprom. Décryptage avec une spécialiste du business en Russie. Lire >>
BP lance un audit mondial de ses installations
José Mateus Cavaco Silva at September 18, 2006 18:53 |
link | comments
Tags: mudança do modelo energético
Tags: mudança do modelo energético
Saturados do Portugal Salazarento
PORTUGUESES FASCINADOS PELO BRASIL
Tenho, absolutamente rendidos ao Brasil, dois grandes amigos meus. O Miguel Reis e o Zé Adelino Maltez.
O Miguel faz tempo que - mantendo o escritório de Lisboa e outras delegações, abriu também escritório em S. Paulo - passa regularmente largas temporadas por lá e não jura por outra coisa, fascinado que anda com os negócios paulistas, o charme das brasileiras e o ar que o Brasil respira.
O Zé Adelino, que agora está a dar umas semanas de aulas numa universidade brasileira, revela a sua descoberta fascinante de um novo mundo, nos antípodas deste nosso mundo (ainda tão) salazarento. Veja-se o seu último post:
"Não consigo escrever sobre o que se passa dentro de Portugal, assim fora de Portugal e por isso continuo obsidiante sobre este ambiente que me rodeia. Reparo como o Brasil é, ao mesmo tempo, a principal potência católica do mundo e o sítio onde há mais espíritas, à Kardec, com direito a banca de divulgação nas universidades ou nos "shoppings".
" E também não é por acaso que, por cá, as actividades da maçonaria são tão naturais como o ar que se respira, ao mesmo tempo que os canais evangélicos nos entram pela casa dentro. (...) " Continuar a ler AQUI
Um destes dias sou eu que terei de partir à descoberta do meu Brasil...
Crítica Implícita ao Aquinismo
O PAPA DESCOBRE DUNS SCOT
Não deixa de ser muito interessante e revelador que o Papa Ratzinger para poder falar das relações entre fé e razão, para mostrar as limitações intrínsecas da actual teologia islâmica, tenha de ter ido buscar o franciscano Duns Scot, o crítico demolidor do dominicano S. Tomás de Aquino. A ironia reside no facto de Ratzinger ser ou se ter mostrado até aqui, sobretudo, como um aquinista... O Papa, talvez até sem se aperceber, revela assim os limites e o "fora de prazo" do aquinismo! Ecos de uma polémica velha de mais de sete séculos entre dominicanos e franciscanos...
Mais do que a crítica explicita ao islão, nesta intervenção papal, é a crítica impícita mas radical ao aquinismo (tão presente ainda em certos círculos e para-círculos da igreja portuguesa...) que interessa reter.
"Beato John Duns Scot, ou Scotus1 OFM (Escócia ca. 1266 - 8 de Novembro 1308) foi membro da Ordem Franciscana, filósofo e teólogo da tradição escolástica, chamado o Doutor Sutil, mentor de outro grande nome da filosofia medieval: William de Ockham. Foi beatificado em 20 de Março de 1993, durante o pontificado de João Paulo II.
Formado no ambiente acadêmico da Universidade de Oxford, onde ainda pairava a aura de Robert Grosseteste e Roger Bacon, posicionou-se contrário a São Tomás de Aquino no enfoque da relação entre a razão e a fé. Para Scot, as verdades da fé não poderiam ser compreendidas pela razão. A filosofia, assim, deveria deixar de ser uma serva da teologia, como vinha ocorrendo ao longo de toda a Idade Média e adquirir autonomia.
Um dos grandes contributos de Scot para a história da filosofia, afirmam os historiadores, está no conceito de estidade ( haecceitas ). Por esta teoria, valoriza a experiência, e distancia a preocupação exclusivista da filosofia com as essências universais e trancendentes."
" Duns Scot étant catholique et religieux, les principales solutions de sa philosophie sont par là même connues. Ce qui caractérise son originalité comme penseur, c'est la critique rigoureuse à laquelle il a soumis les arguments et les théories de ses devanciers, c'est aussi un certain nombre de théories qui lui sont propres, en particulier sa théorie du principe d'individuation et sa théorie de la volonté; ce sont enfin les difficultés qu'il trouve à regarder comme démontrées par la raison un certain nombre de propositions métaphysiques dont ses devanciers pensaient bien avoir fourni une rigoureuse démonstration. Celui de ces devanciers qu'il attaque le plus ordinairement et dont il prend, pour ainsi dire, constamment la contre-partie est saint Thomas d'Aquin.
" Ainsi Duns Scot a accordé beaucoup moins à la raison que ne l'a fait son rival dominicain; il tend à subordonner l'ordre spéculatif à l'ordre pratique. Cette dernière tendance et le caractère critique de sa philosophie a suggéré des rapprochements entre Kant et Duns Scot. Mais si Duns Scot est un Kant, il ne faut pas oublier que ses critiques ne portent jamais que sur certains usages de la raison théorique et non sur la valeur de l'usage même de cette raison. "
Digamos, então, o que o Papa não pode ou não sabe dizer: O Islão precisa do seu Duns Scot... e de fazer a crítica radical dos seus Aquinos, de modo a libertar, finalmente, o seu pensamento.
Le Retour des Frères ou
ALAIN BAUER COMO PONTÍFICE
Alain Bauer, especialista de segurança (desde os tempos em que era responsável por essa área no gabinete do primeiro-ministro Michel Rocard, sob a direcção do director de gabinete, Jean-Claude Petitdemange), professor de criminologia e ex-grão-mestre do Grande Oriente de França, é também um mestre da comunicação.
Há meses, ele publicara "Le Crépuscule des Frères - La Fin de la Franc-Maçonnerie?", um best-seller, que funcionou como um verdadeiro teaser, a que responde agora "Le Retour des Frères - Pour Retrouver la Parole"!
Nesta nova obra, Alain Bauer estigmatiza a ignorância e o seu culto e propõe uma nova filosofia maçónica, um novo paradigma. Para isso, arquitecta uma ponte! Bauer de GM a Pontífice... Pois, moderno é o que já se esqueceu... Bauer retoma a mais velha e esquecida tradição!
"Le temps est-il donc venu de construire ce pont entre frères, soeurs, loges, rites et obediences pour travailler ensemble sur des sujets de reflexion, en retrouvant les fondamentaux et les bases de ce qui a fait la diversité et la force de l'Ordre? D'avoir enfin les franc-maçons partout et la maçonnerie quelque part? (...)
"Pour cela, nul n'est besoin de changer d'obedience, ni d'en créer de nouvelles (comme s'il en avait dejà pas suffisament !) ou de définir d'autres grades, degrés, fonctions, cordons multicolores et extensibles. Que chacun et chacune poursuive son propre parcours, mais ouvrons simplement les portes au travail en commun, au dialogue, à la réflexion.
"Ce que nous vivons aujoutd'hui n'est pas la fin de la maçonnerie mais peut-être la fin d'un certain modèle maçonnique. Ce qui doit en émerger ne nous appartient qu'en partie seulement, mais tous les francs-maçons doivent être conscients de cette nouvelle genèse. Je n'ai rien voulu dire d'autre e j'ai souhaité, à la place qui est la mienne, contribuer autant que faire se peut à cette nécessaire prise de conscience."
Présentation de l'éditeur:
Un an après le choc du Crépuscule des Frères, Alain Bauer revient sur ses interrogations. Le temps de la reconstruction succède à celui de la critique. Il s'agit désormais de Retrouver la Parole. Roger Dachez, historien de l'ésotérisme, Bruno Etienne, sociologue du fait religieux, Michel Maffesoli, philosophe de l'imaginaire, l'accompagnent dans cette entreprise, lui répondent, et se répondent. Qu'en est-il aujourd'hui de l'initiation et de la laïcité ? De la fraternité et de la société ? Du secret et de la médiatisation ? Des Maçons et de la France ? De la franc-maçonnerie et du devenir de l'homme. Voici, surprenant et exigeant, ouvert sur tout et ouvert à tous, le retour des Frères. "
GRAND "O"
Antes, Alain Bauer havia, entre muitas outras coisas, publicado, ainda como Grão-Mestre do G.O.F., uma obra que marcou a época: "Grand O : Les Vérités du Grand Maître du Grand Orient de France". Que o editor, então, apresentava assim: "Grand O, comme Grand Orient, plus ancienne et plus importante obédience de la Franc-Maçonnerie d'Europe continentale. Grand O, comme grand oral : Alain Bauer, Grand Maître du Grand Orient de France depuis septembre 2000 s'explique sur le fond. Pour définir ce qu'est véritablement la 
Franc-Maçonnerie, ses valeurs, ses engagements, sa part dans la construction de la République, sa modernité. Pour en finir avec la réputation sulfureuse de certains maçons dévoyés. Et pour en finir avec les "affaires". Il faut d'urgence mettre fin à certaines dérives, renouer avec la mission originelle de la Franc-Maçonnerie : produire des idées, émanciper les consciences, libérer les individus, ramener les citoyens dans les grands débats de société, en matière d'éthique, de justice, d'Europe. Conscient qu'il faut réaffirmer et redéfinir enjeux, motivations, valeurs et comportements, Alain Bauer commence par les siens : pourquoi suis-je devenu maçon, comment suis-je devenu Grand Maître? Et surtout pour quoi faire ? Il s'explique, enfin, sur le véritable sens du secret dans la Franc-Maçonnerie. Alain Bauer, 39 ans, consultant et enseignant est Grand Martre du Grand orient de France. "
Sobre as Reacções Totalitárias a
"AVANTE", NARCOTERRORISTAS !
Parece que o fascismo anda à solta aí por blogs obscuros... Isto segundo uma escribela do "Avante", ou "Adelante, Narcoterroristas" ou como disse o "Água Lisa", uma "prosa luminosa da autoria de Anabela Fino"! Pois desengane-se a dita e também sus muchachos, aqui nada há de obscuro. É tudo bem claro! Olhemos, então, a coisa.
De fino esta anabela tem pouco, mesmo nada. Ela é vulgar e grosseira. Vulgar no seu linguajar, na sua língua de pau e no papaguear da sua cartilha/cassete. Grosseira no modo pouco sofisticado como o faz. Adelante... e não se perca mais cera com ruim defunto.
Por mim, vou na quarta década de conhecimento directo deste tipo de autismo estúpido... Não esquecem nada e não aprendem nada. O resultado está à vista. E tudo o que lhes cheire a "anti-americano" lhes serve. Ainda hei-de ver reabilitado na festarola, com direito a stand especial e tudo, esse anti-americano radical que era o Salazar e espero ter o prazer de ver umas fotografias das "camaradas" todas emburkadas (esta fino incluída) como manda a lei desse Irão que, recentemente, o "Avante" tanto elogiou e encomiou...
Estou habituado a que essa gentinha me chame de "fascista", de "social-democrata", me acuse de "fazer o jogo da direita", de ser "pró-americano" e até já levei com a acusação suprema de ser "um play-boy"... Devo dizer que nada disso me espanta nem incomoda.
O que não me espantou mas incomodou gravemente foi o facto de, no início da década de setenta e ainda na verdura dos 16 anos, ter sido denunciado à PIDE - que ao fim de três meses de observação pela "secção central" do Pereira de Carvalho, mandou a brigada do Joaquim Santos Costa prender-me - por um membro do comité central do PCP. Um dos muitos tipos da folha de pagamentos da PIDE que sentava o rabo e tinha voz activa nas reuniões do comité central comunista...
E espero que possamos ficar por aqui... Que não sejam necessários mais esclarecimentos!
Quanto ao que realmente importa, os narcoterroristas e seus cúmplices que
libertem a Ingrid Bettancourt e já!
" Prosa luminosa da autoria de Anabela Fino
no último "Adelante!" das FARC:
Publicado por João Tunes às 01:04 | Link do post | Comentar | "
" O valor das cousas e das causas
O Tugir em português é, provavelmente, de todos os Blogs mais-ou-menos-obscuros (na linguagem de trapos da mais-ou-menos-jornalista, Anabela Fino) o que mais aprecia a atenção mais-ou-menos-atenta dos camaradas comunistas.
Honra lhes seja feita - A sua militância é imbatível e a persistência inultrapassável. Basta ler as caixas de comentários para verificar que todos afinam pelo mesmo diapasão, fazem as mesmas leituras e transcrevem os mesmos textos doutrinários, mais-ou-menos as vezes que forem precisas, sem lhes alterar uma vírgula.
Método antigo, este, talvez não de lavagem ao cérebro (desculpem o pouco rigor), talvez não de reeducação, (assim é mais rigoroso) mas de uma outra categoria onde a máxima aplicável é: - Uma mentira repetida muitas vezes, passa a ser verdade.
O célula controleira de serviço, que estimamos ter como nossos comentadores, ensina-nos correntemente nos comentários que os seus dogmas, como dogmas que são, são indiscutíveis, por serem portadores da verdade e da luz. Sempre assim foi em todos os países onde as suas ideologias foram implementadas, onde as cadeias estão e estiveram cheias de criminosos de opinião e de expressão. Onde os que tinham comportamentos desviantes eram (ainda são, nos poucos países que dominam) corrigidos, se necessário, a tiro.
Mas isto importa pouco, adelante.
Interessa só alertar esses nossos camaradas escalados para o facto de que o atafulhar das nossas caixas de comentários com textos de meia-légua copiados e colados, sempre iguais, sem qualquer valia, não tem em conta que este, como provavelmente os outros blogs mais-ou-menos-obscuros, não são a escolinha dos pioneiros onde o empinanço substitui o raciocínio. Interessa explicar que quando transcrevem cartas de meninos de coro, como os das FARC, onde explicam tudo muito bem, mas se esquecem de mencionar as centenas de execuções que fazem e os sequestrados que mantém anos-a-fio , não conseguem convencer ninguém.
Interessa que quando escrevem textos sem nexo onde comparam acções de Movimentos de Libertação com Ordas de Bandidos e narcotraficantes, as pessoas percebem que não estão a ser intelectualmente honestos.
Interessa que quando põem no mesmo saco Nelson Mandela e Raúl Reyes, ou qualquer outro membro do secretariado das FARC, estão a perpetrar mais um atentado à inteligência dos que pretendem catequizar com a cartilha de Estaline, com um método anti-pedagógico baseado na falsidade histórica e na ocultação de factos.
A nova preocupação dos nossos prezados e sempre bem-vindos comentadores doutrinários é a de demonstrar agora que a montanha bloguista mais-ou-menos-obscura pariu um rato, mais-ou-menos cinzento. Que o movimento nacional (e não só) de repúdio pela presença das FARC desencadeado nesta perigosa nova realidade (a de poder publicar sem censura, nem controlo), não foi além da centena e meia de assinaturas.
Por muito que se tente explicar que este não foi um abaixo-assinado mas só a recolha de assinaturas para reforçar um protesto (bastava-nos as assinaturas dos proponentes para o envio dos documentos) e que todos nós, que já andamos nisto há muito sabemos bem como se conseguem meter milhares de assinaturas num documento, mas não o quisemos fazer, como não está no manual do comité, não conseguem entender.
Talvez menos memorização da doutrina de obediência e mais compreensão do Mundo actual não lhes trouxesse prejuízo. Talvez um pouco de exercício crítico, em vez de papagueamento, não lhes fizesse pior.
Pela nossa parte sabem que serão sempre acolhidos nos nossos comentários, desde que mantenham o nível de respeito democrático, mesmo sabendo que tal não nos seria possível se as teses que defendem tivessem saído vencedoras contra a liberdade ganha há trinta e dois anos.
LNT
Em tempo:
A ler na caixa de comentários deste Post, pela enésima vez, mais um copy/paste igual aos anteriores, onde a rapaziada das FARC, pela mão da Camarada Margarida, tenta catequizar os blogs mais-ou-menos-obscuros, abstraindo-se de que aquele grupo de bandidos continua a manter em cativeiro dezenas de Colombianos, entre eles uma candidata à Presidência da República raptada em plena campanha eleitoral .
Bwin Cada Vez Mais... Blooser
Pelo que noticia este fim de semana a 18h.Com parece que os franceses não têm problemas com a sua Constituição e nem têm por lá canotilhos... Têm mesmo é leis e quem as faça respeitar, ou seja são um Estado de Direito, mesmo.
Deux dirigeants de Bwin, une société de paris en ligne spécialisée dans le football, ont été interpellés par la police vendredi.
Deux dirigeants de Bwin, une société de paris en ligne spécialisée dans le football, ont été interpellés par la police aujourd'hui vendredi, alors qu'ils s'apprêtaient à tenir une conférence de presse au centre d'entraînement de l'AS Monaco. Où ils devaient présenter leur nouveau plan de sponsoring. Le tout s'est déroulé devant un parterre de journalistes invités par le club monégasque. Selon une source judiciaire, les policiers appartenant à la section judiciaire de la sous-direction des courses et des jeux des Renseignements généraux, agissaient sur commission rogatoire d'un juge de Nanterre (Hauts-de-Seine), siège de
La société Bwin (anciennement Betandwin), spécialisée dans les paris sur les matches de football sur internet, sponsorise outre l'AS Monaco, le Milan AC, le Werder Brême ainsi que l'AS Saint-Etienne, Auxerre, Le Mans et Bordeaux. Le vice-champion d'Allemagne de football, Brême, avait début août renoncé a la publicité Bwin lors d'un match de championnat contre Hanovre, la société ayant perdu sa licence d'exploitation en Allemagne sur décision de l'Etat régional de Saxe. Une perte qui l'empêche depuis de mener ses activités en Allemagne, et de faire de la publicité, du sponsoring ou du parrainage, notamment sur les maillots des équipes de sport. Le groupe austro-allemand avait annoncé dans la foulée un recours devant le tribunal administratif de Dresde contre cette décision et la poursuite de ses paris en ligne. Betandwin/Bwin, dont l'Allemagne représente le premier marché, a réalisé en 2005 un chiffre d'affaires de 1,135 milliard d'euros, en hausse de 189% par rapport à 2004. La société, qui a beaucoup investi dans le sport allemand, notamment dans le football, a consacré cette année "56 millions d'euros" au marketing et au sponsoring dans ce pays.
MAU TEMPO NA INDÚSTRIA AUTOMÓVEL
Foi uma das indústrias motoras do modelo econónimo saído da II Guerra, durante o período de ouro da economia europeia entre 1945 e 1975. Perdeu esse estatuto durante os anos setenta e oitenta. Começaram então as deslocalizações e outras aventuras... Até chegou a Portugal, conseguindo grande apoio para essa decisão, nos tempos cegos e sem inteligência económica e ainda menos inteligência estratégica, do cavaquismo... Hoje, arrasta as suas desgraças, de modo cada vez mais visível, e é, de modo cada mais claro, uma indústria própria das periferias do sistema económico:
Ford veut sabrer plus de 110.000 postes en Amérique du nord
Le constructeur américain a annoncé 14.000 nouvelles suppressions de postes, qui s'ajoutent aux 25 à 30.000 déjà programmées. Sans compter un plan de départs volontaires visant 75.000 ouvriers dans ses propres usines et chez ses équipementiers. Lire >>
Renault sombre en Europe, Nissan aussi
Le groupe dirigé par Carlos Ghosn a vécu un été très difficile : le constructeur français a perdu 12,3% tandis que son partenaire nippon s'est effondré de 27,8% en août. PSA s'en sort un peu mieux avec un recul de 3,6%. La moyenne européenne, elle, se situe à -1,4%. Lire >>
Le Point - 19.03.1979
New York 16H30... A hora está errada
...NÃO HOUVE ATRASO DO AVIÃO, MAS ANTECIPAÇÃO!
José Garcia Domingues
LEMBRANDO O MESTRE
A cultura árabe, dizia o meu velho mestre arabista, José Garcia Domingues, nunca foi capaz de integrar... a roda! Nem de construir em pedra... nem de canalizar água mas apenas de a reter (o que faz toda a diferença)!
Como É Bom...
FUMAR NA PRAIA !
LULA MARCA PONTOS
Vitória brasileira sobre Chavez e o Cocalero
Lula: la Bolivie va geler la prise de contrôle des raffineries Petrobras
TUDO BONS RAPAZES A
DIVERTIR-SE EM HAVANA
Segundo a AFP, "rassemblés pour une deuxième journée de débats, les ministres de non alignés ont mis la dernière main à une énergique dénonciation de la politique des Etats-Unis et leurs alliés dans les crises internationales qui figurera dans la résolution finale du sommet..." Basta ilhar-lhes para a fachada para se descobrir como são todos bons rapazes num inocente divertimento nessa capital mundial da felicidade que é Havana!
Le président iranien Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, le 14 septembre 2006 à La Havane à Cuba pour le Sommet des Non-alignés
" Le président iranien Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a défendu son programme nucléaire, jeudi à La Havane, où est réuni le Mouvement des non alignés qui soutient la position iranienne et où Raul Castro a fait une première apparition en qualité d'hôte de la réunion. " 
M. Ahmadinejad peut déjà compter sur l'appui du Venezuela dont le président Hugo Chavez est arrivé jeudi à La Havane, et sur Cuba, même si aucune rencontre n'était prévue pour le moment avec le président Fidel Castro, qui relève d'une grave opération chirurgicale et a été remplacé "provisoirement" par son frère Raul.
Enfim, tudo "nice guys"... e bem alinhados! Basta olhar para eles...
Micro espião no restaurante de Mourinho
Un micro-espion découvert dans un restaurant huppé de la City
Un micro-espion a été découvert dans un restaurant à la mode de la City à Londres, fréquenté par des financiers et des avocats de haut vol, mais aussi par l'entraîneur du club de football de Chelsea, le Portugais Jose Mourinho.
la suite
Partes do Monstro Que Nem a Vista Alcança...
SEM COMENTÁRIOS... POR DESNECESSÁRIOS
Função Pública: Trabalhadores com funções desconhecidas pelo Estado inferior 30 mil
Lisboa, 15 Set (Lusa) - O ministro do Estado e das Finanças, Fernando Teixeira dos Santos, admitiu hoje a existência de funcionários públicos com ocupação e remuneração desconhecida pela Administração Central, mas garantiu que são menos de 30 mil...
Steve Jobs: The Next Insanely Great Thing
" We see how people won the battle of the desktop by owning the operating system. How does one win on the Web?
Steve Jobs: There are three parts to the Web. One is the client, the second is the pipes, and the third is the servers.
On the client side, there's the browser software. In the sense of making money, it doesn't look like anybody is going to win on the browser software side, because it's going to be free. And then there's the typical hardware. It's possible that some people could come out with some very interesting Web terminals and sell some hardware.
On the pipe side, the RBOCs are going to win. In the coming months, you're going to see a lot of them offering a service for under $25 a month. You get ISDN strung into your den, you get a little box to hook it into your PC, and you get an Internet account, which is going to be very popular. The RBOCs are going to be the companies that get you on the Web. They have a vested interest in doing that. They'd like to screw the cable companies; they'd like to preserve the customers. This is all happening right now. You don't see it. It's under the ground like the roots of a tree, but it's going to spring up and you're going to see this big tree within a few years.
As for the server market, companies like Sun are doing a nice business selling servers. But with Web server software, no one company has more than a single-digit market share yet. Netscape sells hardly any, because you can get free public-domain software and it's very good. Some people say that it's even better than what you can buy.
Our company decided that people are going to layer stuff above this very simple Web server to help others build Web applications, which is where the bottleneck is right now. There's some real opportunity there for making major contributions and a lot of money. That's what WebObjects is all about.
(...)
What about the Web as the great democratizer?
Steve Jobs: If you look at things I've done in my life, they have an element of democratizing. The Web is an incredible democratizer. A small company can look as large as a big company and be as accessible as a big company on the Web. Big companies spend hundreds of millions of dollars building their distribution channels. And the Web is going to completely neutralize that advantage.
(...)
Rethinking Revolution
What's the biggest surprise this technology will deliver?
Steve Jobs: The problem is I'm older now, I'm 40 years old, and this stuff doesn't change the world. It really doesn't.
That's going to break people's hearts.
Steve Jobs: I'm sorry, it's true. Having children really changes your view on these things. We're born, we live for a brief instant, and we die. It's been happening for a long time. Technology is not changing it much - if at all.
These technologies can make life easier, can let us touch people we might not otherwise. You may have a child with a birth defect and be able to get in touch with other parents and support groups, get medical information, the latest experimental drugs. These things can profoundly influence life. I'm not downplaying that. But it's a disservice to constantly put things in this radical new light - that it's going to change everything. Things don't have to change the world to be important.
The Web is going to be very important. Is it going to be a life-changing event for millions of people? No. I mean, maybe. But it's not an assured Yes at this point. And it'll probably creep up on people.
It's certainly not going to be like the first time somebody saw a television. It's certainly not going to be as profound as when someone in Nebraska first heard a radio broadcast. It's not going to be that profound.
Then how will the Web impact our society?
Steve Jobs: We live in an information economy, but I don't believe we live in an information society. People are thinking less than they used to. It's primarily because of television. People are reading less and they're certainly thinking less. So, I don't see most people using the Web to get more information. We're already in information overload. No matter how much information the Web can dish out, most people get far more information than they can assimilate anyway.
The problem is television?
Steve Jobs: When you're young, you look at television and think, There's a conspiracy. The networks have conspired to dumb us down. But when you get a little older, you realize that's not true. The networks are in business to give people exactly what they want. That's a far more depressing thought. Conspiracy is optimistic! You can shoot the bastards! We can have a revolution! But the networks are really in business to give people what they want. It's the truth.
So Steve Jobs is telling us things are going to continue to get worse.
Steve Jobs: They are getting worse! Everybody knows that they're getting worse! Don't you think they're getting worse?
I do, but I was hoping I could come here and find out how they were going to get better. Do you really believe that the world is getting worse? Or do you have a feeling that the things you're involved with are making the world better?
Steve Jobs: No. The world's getting worse. It has gotten worse for the last 15 years or so. Definitely. For two reasons. On a global scale, the population is increasing dramatically and all our structures, from ecological to economic to political, just cannot deal with it. And in this country, we seem to have fewer smart people in government, and people don't seem to be paying as much attention to the important decisions we have to make.
But you seem very optimistic about the potential for change.
Steve Jobs: I'm an optimist in the sense that I believe humans are noble and honorable, and some of them are really smart. I have a very optimistic view of individuals. As individuals, people are inherently good. I have a somewhat more pessimistic view of people in groups. And I remain extremely concerned when I see what's happening in our country, which is in many ways the luckiest place in the world. We don't seem to be excited about making our country a better place for our kids.
The people who built Silicon Valley were engineers. They learned business, they learned a lot of different things, but they had a real belief that humans, if they worked hard with other creative, smart people, could solve most of humankind's problems. I believe that very much.
I believe that people with an engineering point of view as a basic foundation are in a pretty good position to jump in and solve some of these problems. But in society, it's not working. Those people are not attracted to the political process. And why would somebody be? (...) "
PERCEPTIONS MANAGEMENT
NA GUERRA AO TERRORISMO
Guardei para ler, há umas duas semanas, e só hoje tive tempo de pegar numa "tribuna de convidado" sobre a "Estratégia enviesada no Médio Oriente" que o meu velho amigo coronel Pedroso Marques publicou no Jornal de Negócios de 29 de Agosto passado.
É uma excelente tribuna e dá a oportunidade de retomar um debate que tivemos no Instituto de Altos Estudos Militares, há uns meses, durante uma conferência da AFCEA.
Pedroso Marques começa por estabelecer o específico que distingue a guerra. É uma preocupação de rigor intelectual e conceptual quantas vezes ausente nos nossos "intelectuais"...
"As guerras não acontecem porque existem armas. As guerras dão-se quando se acredita que os conflitos só acabam quando um ou uns eliminarem o outro ou os outros. (...) Uma guerra não é uma omeleta. Estas, sim, só se fazem com ovos. As guerras surgem onde quer que haja a vontade de as fazer, com um frasquinho de líquido apropriado e um tubo de pasta de dentes (devidamente recheado) que passe o controlo do aeroporto e, mais importante, a vontade de morrer para matar...".
Obviamente, que quem pensar sobre estas matérias não pode deixar de estar de acordo. Como não pode deixar de estar também absolutamente de acordo com:
"O Hezbollah já foi mandado desarmar por duas vezes pelas Nações Unidas e é evidente para todos que não vai desarmar, até porque as armas que possui não são dele, são de quem lhas dá - a Síria , além do Irão, o mercado negro de armas. Toda a gente sabe disto!"
Onde me assaltam algumas dúvidas é quando o coronel Pedroso Marques diz: "...se as duas nações (Israel e a Palestina) não podem viver no mesmo espaço, pelo menos que se criem as condições para que o possam em espaços contíguos. Esta a obrigação que se impõe à comunidade internacional, a concretizar sob a liderança da ONU".
Gostaria muito de poder partilhar esta convicção. Mas parece-me que, com o "triunfo" no Médio Oriente da estratégia terrorista (Hamas, Hezbollah, Al-Qaeda e seus sub-grupos franchisados), os palestinianos perderam já a janela estratégica criada por Arafat de realizarem o seu próprio estado... Neste sentido, pode-se enunciar um aparente paradoxo: este terrorismo islâmico é o melhor aliado estratégico de Israel contra os palestinianos e é, portanto, o liquidador do sonho de Arafat. Os palestinianos, os que pensam, há tempos que devem ter percebido que com "amigos" daqueles não precisavam mais de inimigos...
"O Inimigo é a vontade, que está na cabeça de seres humanos (...)" Ora, "na resolução das Nações Unidas nada é dirigido a este elemento psicológico, nem a outros de sentido oposto. O julgamento que cidadãos ocidentais fazem sobre algumas tradições religiosas islâmicas, como as que se traduzem na mutilação genital feminina, pode constituir um elemento de revolta... (...) Estas diferenças civilizacionais são poluidoras dos julgamento, interferem nas opiniões públicas e condicionam as políticas. As comunidades políticas internacionais e a ONU persistem em enganar-se, ignorando a existência destas realidades, com argumentos de recusa dos "incivilizados conflitos civilizacionais". Estamos num ambiente político internacional sobre o Médio Oriente de extrema complexidade. Nenhum dos actores mais intervenientes fala claro. Estamos no esplendor da "estratégia indirecta" (onde intervenientes e actores) agem numa hipocrisia política que tem de ser rechaçada pelas opiniões públicas esclarecidas do Mundo".
Um objectivo, claro e exemplar diagnóstico de situação mas cuja conclusão é já do domínio subjectivo, do "dever ser", veja-se: o "tem de..." e o "opiniões públicas esclarecidas"...
Entramos aqui no cerne do nosso debate no IAEM - o carácter crítico das percepções, a sua imposição sobre as realidades, a necessidade absoluta da sua gestão, do perceptions management como componente da inteligência estratégica...
O "tem de ser" - como uma expressão concreta do "dever ser" - é um desejo. Absolutamente legitimo, mas do domínio do desejo... Quanto às "opiniões públicas esclarecidas", são uma realidade do domínio da imaginação. É uma categoria desconhecida. Pelo que não vale a pena imaginar que existem e pedir-lhes que... Confesso que gostaria que fosse verdade, gostaria que tal mundo existisse.Mas sei que não existe.
Por mim, querido amigo Pedroso Marques, parto do princípio que, hoje, o esclarecimento das opiniões públicas é um out-put dos trabalhos de perceptions management... E, cá estamos de novo no nosso ponto. Esta longuíssima guerra do terrorismo vai ser momento de consagração do perceptions management como componente decisiva da estratégia. E se-lo-à de um modo ou de outro. Ou pelo papel decisivo que desempenhar na vitória ou pelo que nos custará a sua ausência no lugar que lhe compete...
Assim os estados-maiores e os responsáveis políticos ocidentais o entendam a tempo e talvez seja ainda possível derrotar o terrorismo, garantir a paz entre israelitas e palestinianos e manter um mundo em liberdade e estados de direito...
No Journal of Information Warfare, Vol. 1, Issue 3, 2002, pp. 16-29, o professor P.M.Taylor trata precisamente o problema “Perceptions management and the war against terrorism” tal como também o faz Antony Blinken em “Now the US needs to win the global war of ideas”. E tal como outros o têm feito.
Sem esta vitória na guerra das ideias e sem integrar o perceptions management no cálculo estratégico, o terrorismo não será derrotado, tão cedo.
Querido amigo, um destes dias, estou convencido, ainda vamos ter de retomar este nosso ponto... Um abraço.
A Global Alliance for Global Values
Tony Blair denuncia a loucura europeia anti-norte-americana
O primeiro-ministro Tony Blair considera que «o sentimento anti-norte-americano que existe em partes da política europeia é uma loucura», explica um documento divulgado pelo Foreign Policy Centre britânico.
«O perigo de hoje não é que os Estados Unidos estejam demasiado envolvidos, mas que decidam levantar a ponte levadiça e retirar»
De acordo com Blair, a Europa «precisa e quer» que os Estados Unidos estejam sempre envolvidos em todas as grandes matérias da política externa e pensar o contrário «é uma loucura».
«A verdade é que nenhum dos problemas que nos pressiona pode ser resolvido, nem sequer pensado, sem a presença deles», acrescenta Tony Blair.
Em relação à ameaça terrorista que o Ocidente enfrenta, o primeiro-ministro britânico afirma que «a situação em que se vive é de facto uma guerra» e defende que não será possível ganhar essa guerra com métodos convencionais.
O documento divulgado hoje é um resumo, feito pelo próprio primeiro-ministro, dos discursos dos últimos 12 meses apenas sobre política externa e pode ser consultado Aqui
Ler ainda:
"NOT A CLASH BETWEEN CIVILISATIONS, BUT A CLASH ABOUT CIVILISATION"
«Não venceremos a batalha contra o extremismo global a não ser que a ganhemos ao nível dos valores, tanto como da força», diz Blair.
OBRIGADO, ORIANA FALLACI !
Morreu ontem a senhora que desmascarou Álvaro Cunhal, numa entrevista que lhe fez durante o Prec. Aquela que - logo de seguida desmentida pelo bureau de propaganda comunista, a que ela retorquiu apenas que tinha "tudo gravado em fita magnética" - publicou as declarações de Cunhal a dizer que não ligava nada a eleições nem em Portugal haveria Parlamento algum, que o PS com 40% dos votos e o PSD com 26% não tinham maioria alguma e iria aplicar um projecto comunista a Portugal. A entrevista teve na opinião internacional o efeito de um aviso muito sério e, dentro de Portugal, retomada pelo jornal de Raúl Rego, foi um verdadeiro terramoto.
Mas não foi só Cunhal que Oriana desmascarou definitivamente. Como recorda hoje o Sol, frente ao ayatollah Khomeini, tirou o lenço que, como mulher, estava obrigada a usar em solo iraniano e chamou-lhe «tirano»... Normal numa mulher que ainda no início da adolescência escolheu bater-se de armas na mão, no grupo da resistência italiana "Justiça e Liberdade", contra a ditadura fascista de Mussolini. E que até ontem, quando expirou na sua cidade natal de Firenze, sempre foi, melhor ou pior, fiel a essa porta por onde saíu da infância: Justiça e Liberdade!
Obrigado, Oriana.
amanhã há sol...
ou não o será...? amanhã,
se começará a ver que coisa há...
Muito Oportuno...
PARLAMENTO EUROPEU QUER CLARIFICAR
O CONCEITO DE "SERVIÇOS PÚBLICOS"
Le Parlement souhaite clarifier la question des services publics [FR]
Le Parlement demande à la Commission de faire une distinction claire entre les services 'd'intérêt général' et les services 'd'intérêt économique général' et d'adopter des règles juridiques en conséquence.
ALERTA DA MIGUEL REIS & ASSOC.
EMPRESAS CHINESAS PROCURAM MARCAS LIVRES
O negócio das marcas promete aquecer com a intervenção dos chineses.
Empresas chinesas de gestão de marcas procuram marcas livres em Portugal e no Brasil e procedem aos seus registos projectando a produção dos respectivos produtos na China e a venda nos países em que as marcas tenham notoriedade.
Vários escritórios de advogados e de agentes da propriedade industrial foram contactados, nos últimos meses, por empresas chineses de brand hunting.
Os nossos escritórios, que aparecem referenciados com actividade em Portugal e no Brasil, foram contactados em ambos os países.
A única defesa relativa a este tipo de intervenção é a do registo das marcas pelos que as usam.
LIBERATION: APELO AOS LEITORES...
719 réactionsBranqueamento: Assassinato em Moscovo
DESAFIO A PUTINE
Le vice-président de la Banque centrale de Russie est décédé jeudi. Andreï Kozlov avait été grièvement blessé la veille, à la suite de coups de feu tirés par des inconnus alors qu'il sortait d'un club de sports de Moscou. Il était notamment chargé du contrôle des insitutions bancaires suspectées de blanchiment d'argent. Son meurtre pourrait avoir été commandité, selon les autorités russes. Ces pratiques étaient courantes dans les milieux d'affaires du Moscou des années 1990, juste après la chute de l'URSS. Mais ils sont devenus beaucoup plus rares depuis que le pays connaît un fort développement économique et que la guerre des clans criminels a pris fin.
GOOGLE MAIS RICO PARA NOSSA RIQUEZA
Google Earth se transforme en atlas multimédia
Les adeptes de Google Earth vont être ravis! Google vient d'annoncer la mise en place de nouveaux contenus multimédia pour son logiciel d'exploration géographique Google Earth... >Suite
A França Ameaçada pela Al-Qaeda
" Ayman al-Zawahiri a appelé un groupe terroriste algérien à frapper l'Hexagone, dans une déclaration diffusée le 11 septembre. Les services antiterroristes français reconnaissent qu'une menace sérieuse pèse sur la France...
Dossier Les réseaux terroristes en France
Archive Les rouages d'un réseau
Archive Pierre Lellouche: «Nous sommes bien en guerre mondiale»
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E deus criou a Mulher... Claro !
The Secret Language of Competitive Intelligence
DE LEITURA IMPRESCINDÍVEL PARA EXECUTIVOS
E TODOS OS OUTROS DECISORES PORTUGUESES
“…an accessible and practical handbook for reframing the way you think about your competitors,”
– Business Week
“This highly readable how-to by a top expert should be your first choice on competitive intelligence.”
– Entrepreneur Magazine, August 2006
"Leonard Fuld is the guru of competitive intelligence. In his new book, he shows your company how to anticipate competitors' moves, through war games and other methods. His stories and ideas will make you question whether you're doing an adequate job of staying ahead of the competition."
--Philip Kotler, S. C. Johnson Distinguished Professor of International Marketing, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University
Inteligência Económica
VIGÍLIA JURÍDICA EUROPEIA
Defidoc apresenta interessantes trabalhos sobre a vigília jurídica aos "assuntos comunitários" e fontes a manter, sem falta, debaixo de olho...
LA VEILLE JURIDIQUE SUR LE WEB – EUROPE
LA VEILLE JURIDIQUE SUR LE WEB – JURISPRUDENCE
Ainda no domínio da vigília, "Fuld & Company, the global leader in competitive intelligence" acaba de publicar o seu "Intelligence Software Report", para 2006/07, um comparativo de plataformas e instrumentos de vigília, que analisa 17 instrumentos segundo 120 critérios, identificando bem as funções de cada um e a sua posição...
Más Notícias...
ALERTA DO FMI: VÊM AÍ AS "CORRECÇÕES"
Segundo a 18H de hoje, "Le FMI avertit les marchés contre de "sévères corrections" . Ralentissement de la croissance américaine, hausse des prix du pétrole, fin des politiques monétaires accommodantes : le FMI liste les menaces qui pèsent sur l'économie mondiale et déplore que les investisseurs n'en tiennent pas assez compte. Lire >>
UM NOKIA SEM FUNÇÃO TELEFONE...
...Mas com VOIP e muito mais... sistema de exploração Linux e, graças a um protocolo, muito Google (Talk, etc.) e conexão à Net via Wifi e etc... O Nokia 770 deverá ser vendido por 359 €.
A ONU no Caminho da Sociedade das Nações...
A PERFÍDIA DO HEZBOLLAH E A TRISTE IMPOTÊNCIA DA O.N.U.
O Hezbollah, depois de ter recusado ser desarmado e garantido continuar com dezenas de milhares de rockets de reserva, acusa agora o governo libanês de cumplicidade com Israel e exige a sua demissão. Esta exigência dos "doidos de deus" é mais uma ameaça fatal para o frágil projecto de pacificação tão laboriosa e dificilmente construído pela ONU e coloca em situação de insustentabilidade as forças militares enviadas pela ONU.
Tanto os países ocidentais como a ONU consideram o actual governo libanês (de que o Hezbollah faz parte...) como o interlocutor e o garante do mecanismo de paz da resolução 1701 do Conselho de Segurança da ONU e consideram o desarmento do Hezbollah imprescindível. Kofi Annan escreveu mesmo que "toda a força, que não seja o governo libanês, deve ser desarmada".
Dentro de horas, deverá também ser conhecida a reacção do Hezbollah à acusação de "crimes contra a Humanidade" que lhe é feita, finalmente, pela Amnistia Internacional...
A situação complica-se, portanto, bastante, quando continuam a chegar ao Líbano tropas enviadas pela ONU e que não podem fazer uso de força... Não só o Hezbollah não desarma, nem é desarmável pela ONU, como publicita o seu armamento cap+az de atingir território de Israel e como programadamente derruda o governo legítimo do Líbano...
Cada vez me parece mais que às Nações Unidas está a acontecer o mesmo que na segunda metade dos anos trinta aconteceu à Sociedade das Nações: destruídas pelo aparecimento de conflitos que a sua genética não previra e para os quais não estavam preparadas, nem tinham capacidade de regular. Lamentável, sim, mas inexorável....
Montage de portraits du chef du Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah et du Premier ministre libanais Fouad Siniora
2006-09-13 18:41:27
Le chef du Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, a accusé d'intelligence avec Israël des groupes de la majorité politique au Liban, alors que l'Onu a exhorté la milice chiite à renoncer à ses armes.
MUDANÇA DO MODELO ENERGÉTICO
" How Many Lightbulbs Does it Take to Change the World? One. And You're Looking At It.
" What that means is that if every one of 110 million American households bought just one ice-cream-cone bulb, took it home, and screwed it in the place of an ordinary 60-watt bulb, the energy saved would be enough to power a city of 1.5 million people. One bulb swapped out, enough electricity saved to power all the homes in Delaware and Rhode Island. In terms of oil not burned, or greenhouse gases not exhausted into the atmosphere, one bulb is equivalent to taking 1.3 million cars off the roads.
That's the law of large numbers--a small action, multiplied by 110 million.
The single greatest source of greenhouse gases in the United States is power plants--half our electricity comes from coal plants. One bulb swapped out: enough electricity saved to turn off two entire power plants--or skip building the next two.
Just one swirl per home. The typical U.S. house has between 50 and 100 "sockets" (astonish yourself: Go count the bulbs in your house). So what if we all bought and installed two ice-cream-cone bulbs? Five? Fifteen?
Says David Goldstein, a PhD physicist, MacArthur "genius" fellow, and senior energy scientist with the Natural Resources Defense Council: "This could be just what the world's been waiting for, for the last 20 years." Continuar a ler AQUI, na
José Mateus Cavaco Silva at September 13, 2006 19:39 |
link | comments
Tags: mudança do modelo energético
Tags: mudança do modelo energético
SEM COMENTÁRIOS...
... A não ser este, aqui do nosso web-master, "a melhor mala de sempre"!
Assim se vê a força de um anúncio... Recomendado para estudo aos lusitanos vendedores de trapinhos e marroquinarias.
CRISE NO DN
Corre nos bastidores que o DN procura director.... Até já se fala de nomes. A razão invocada é uma sustentada descida das vendas. Segundo versões bem informadas, a venda em banca já teria descido abaixo da linha de água e estaria já abaixo dos 20 mil e sempre a mergulhar...
Pela Primeira Vez em 30 Anos!
SÓCRATES DIMINUIU
A RAÇÃO DO MONSTRO
Parabéns, Senhor Primeiro-Ministro ! Mas é só o começo, é preciso continuar o combate... Na relação entre este Governo e a Economia de Portugal, pode-se dizer que o médico é óptimo, o doente está a reagir mas... continua em coma.
GUERRA AO TERRORISMO SOBRE A IDIOTICE E A MÁ-FÉ QUE IMPEDEM DE RACIOCINAR Das pobres pin-ups do Berloco a bonzos de esquerda, passando por fundamentalistas da direita troglodita, tudo reza o mesmo credo: depois do 11 de Setembro (do Irak, do Afeganistão...), o mundo está menos seguro. É um facto, o planeta está menos seguro. Mas estou farto de o ouvir, dito com um enquadramento idiota e, simultaneamente, de má fé. O mundo está menos seguro não porque há uma “guerra ao terrorismo”, conduzida melhor ou pior por Bush e Blair, mas porque há terrorismo! E uma “guerra do terrorismo”, que foi “declarada” a 11 de Setembro. A idiotice consiste em dizer que é a resposta de Bush que tornou o mundo menos seguro… A má-fé está no facto de tal ser dito pelos que impediram (mais os que estiveram e estão de acordo com isso) que Massoud e “Kirk” tivessem liquidado o terrorismo ainda no ovo e apresentassem Bin Laden a um tribunal americano acusado pelos atentados contra navios e embaixadas em África… Importa, porém, ver com lucidez e analisar com frieza o que se está a passar (sendo que a poeira politiqueira dos discursos de pin-ups, bonzos e outros bimbos é, apenas, uma componente do "que se está a passar"...). Hoje mesmo, a Stratfor apresenta uma análise que é uma excelente base para debater e polemizar a questão da muito longa "guerra do terrorismo/guerra ao terrorismo" (já dura há 5 anos, mais tempo que o da II Guerra, e ainda agora vai no começo...). Aqui se reproduz, na íntegra, por não ser de acesso fácil, essa análise. The U.S. War, Five Years On By George Friedman
Foi isso, de resto, que convenceu Massoud de que “já não havia homens em Washington” e que convenceu Bin Laden de que podia avançar contra os USA no seu próprio território. E ele avançou. A 09.11… E é por isso, e só por isso, que o mundo está menos seguro.
" It has been five years since the Sept. 11 attacks. In thinking about the course of the war against al Qaeda, two facts emerge pre-eminent.
The first is that the war has succeeded far better than anyone would have thought on Sept. 12, 2001. We remember that day clearly, and had anyone told us that there would be no more al Qaeda attacks in the United States for at least five years, we would have been incredulous. Yet there have been no attacks.
The second fact is that the U.S. intervention in the Islamic world has not achieved its operational goals. There are multiple insurgencies under way in Iraq, and the United States does not appear to have sufficient force or strategic intent to suppress them. In Afghanistan, the Taliban has re-emerged as a powerful fighting force. It is possible that the relatively small coalition force -- a force much smaller than that fielded by the defeated Soviets in Afghanistan -- can hold it at bay, but clearly coalition troops cannot annihilate it.
A Strategic Response
The strategic goal of the United States on Sept. 12, 2001, was to prevent any further attacks within the United States. Al Qaeda, defined as the original entity that orchestrated the 1998 attacks against the U.S. embassies in Africa, the USS Cole strike and 9/11, has been thrown into disarray and has been unable to mount a follow-on attack without being detected and disrupted. Other groups, loosely linked to al Qaeda or linked only by name or shared ideology, have carried out attacks, but none have been as daring and successful as 9/11.
In response to 9/11, the United States resorted to direct overt and covert intervention throughout the Islamic world. With the first intervention, in Afghanistan, the United States and coalition forces disrupted al Qaeda's base of operations, destabilized the group and forced it on the defensive. Here also, the stage was set for a long guerrilla war that the United States cannot win with the forces available.
The invasion of Iraq, however incoherent the Bush administration's explanation of it might be, achieved two things. First, it convinced Saudi Arabia of the seriousness of American resolve and caused the Saudis to become much more aggressive in cooperating with U.S. intelligence. Second, it allowed the United States to occupy the most strategic ground in the Middle East -- bordering on Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and Iran. From here, the United States was able to pose overt threats and to stage covert operations against al Qaeda. Yet by invading Iraq, the United States also set the stage for the current military crisis.
The U.S. strategy was to disrupt al Qaeda in three ways:
1. Bring the intelligence services of Muslim states -- through persuasion, intimidation or coercion -- to provide intelligence that was available only to them on al Qaeda's operations.
2. By invading Afghanistan and Iraq, use main force to disrupt al Qaeda and to intimidate and coerce Islamic states. In other words, use Operation 2 to achieve Operation 1.
3. Use the intelligence gained by these methods to conduct a range of covert operations throughout the world, including in the United States itself, to disrupt al Qaeda operations.
The problem, however, was this. The means used to compel cooperation with the intelligence services in countries such as Pakistan or Saudi Arabia involved actions that, while successful in the immediate intent, left U.S. forces exposed on a battleground where the correlation of forces, over time, ceased to favor the United States. In other words, while the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq did achieve their immediate ends and did result in effective action against al Qaeda, the outcome was to expose the U.S. forces to exhausting counterinsurgency that they were not configured to win.
Hindsight: The Search for an Ideal Strategy
The ideal outcome likely would have been to carry out the first and third operations without the second. As many would argue, an acceptable outcome would have been to carry out the Afghanistan operation without going into Iraq. This is the crux of the debate that has been raging since the Iraq invasion and that really began earlier, during the Afghan war, albeit in muted form. On the one side, the argument is that by invading Muslim countries, the United States has played into al Qaeda's hands and actually contributed to radicalization among Islamists -- and that by refraining from invasion, the Americans would have reduced the threat posed by al Qaeda. On the other side, the argument has been made that without these two invasions -- the one for direct tactical reasons, the other for psychological and political reasons -- al Qaeda would be able to operate securely and without effective interference from U.S. intelligence and that, therefore, these invasions were the price to be paid.
There are three models, then, that have been proposed as ideals:
1. The United States should have invaded neither Afghanistan nor Iraq, but instead should have relied entirely on covert measures (with various levels of restraint suggested) to defeat al Qaeda.
2. The United States should have invaded Afghanistan to drive out al Qaeda and disrupt the organization, but should not have invaded Iraq.
3. The United States needed to invade both Iraq and Afghanistan -- the former for strategic reasons and to intimidate key players, the latter to disrupt al Qaeda operations and its home base.
It is interesting to pause and consider that the argument is rarely this clear-cut. Those arguing for Option 1 rarely explain how U.S. covert operations would be carried out, and frequently oppose those operations as well. Those who make the second argument fail to explain how, given that the command cell of al Qaeda had escaped Afghanistan, the United States would continue the war -- or more precisely, where the Americans would get the intelligence to fight a covert war. Those who argue for the third course -- the Bush administration -- rarely explain precisely what the strategic purpose of the war was.
In fact, 9/11 created a logic that drove the U.S. responses. Before any covert war could be launched, al Qaeda's operational structure had to be disrupted -- at the very least, to buy time before another attack. Therefore, an attack in Afghanistan had to come first (and did, commencing about a month after 9/11). Calling this an invasion, of course, would be an error: The United States borrowed forces from Russian and Iranian allies in Afghanistan -- and that, coupled with U.S. air power, forced the Taliban out of the cities to disperse, regroup and restart the war later.
Covert War and a Logical Progression
The problem that the United States had with commencing covert operations against al Qaeda was weakness in its intelligence system. To conduct a covert war, you must have excellent intelligence -- and U.S. intelligence on al Qaeda in the wake of 9/11 was not good enough to sustain a global covert effort. The best intelligence on al Qaeda, simply given the nature of the group as well as its ideology, was in the hands of the Pakistanis and the Saudis. At the very least, Islamic governments were more likely to have accumulated the needed intelligence than the CIA was.
The issue was in motivating these governments to cooperate with the U.S. effort. The Saudis in particular were dubious about U.S. will, given previous decades of behavior. Officials in Riyadh frankly were more worried about al Qaeda's behavior within Saudi Arabia if they collaborated with the Americans than they were about the United States acting resolutely. Recall that the Saudis asked U.S. forces to leave Saudi Arabia after 9/11. Changing the kingdom's attitude was a necessary precursor to waging the covert war, just as Afghanistan was a precursor to changing attitudes in Pakistan.
Invading Iraq was a way for the United States to demonstrate will, while occupying strategic territory to bring further pressure against countries like Syria. It was also a facilitator for a global covert war. The information the Saudis started to provide after the U.S. invasion was critical in disrupting al Qaeda operations. And the Saudis did, in fact, pay the price for collaboration: Al Qaeda rose up against the regime, staging its first attack in the kingdom in May 2003, and was repressed.
In this sense, we can see a logical progression. Invading Afghanistan disrupted al Qaeda operations there and forced Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf to step up cooperation with the United States. Invading Iraq reshaped Saudi thinking and put the United States in a position to pressure neighboring countries. The two moves together increased U.S. intelligence capabilities decisively and allowed it to disrupt al Qaeda.
But it also placed U.S. forces in a strategically difficult position. Any U.S. intervention in Asia, it has long been noted, places the United States at a massive disadvantage. U.S. troops inevitably will be outnumbered. They also will be fighting on an enemy's home turf, far away from everything familiar and comfortable. If forced into a political war, in which the enemy combatants use the local populace to hide themselves -- and if that populace is itself hostile to the Americans -- the results can be extraordinarily unpleasant. Thus, the same strategy that allowed the United States to disrupt al Qaeda also placed U.S. forces in strategically difficult positions in two theaters of operation.
Mission Creep and Crisis
The root problem was that the United States did not crisply define the mission in either Iraq or Afghanistan. Obviously, the immediate purpose was to create an environment in which al Qaeda was disrupted and the intelligence services of Muslim states felt compelled to cooperate with the United States. But by revising the mission upward -- from achieving these goals to providing security to rooting out Baathism and the Taliban, then to providing security against insurgents and even to redefining these two societies as democracies -- the United States overreached. The issue was not whether democracy is desirable; the issue was whether the United States had sufficient forces at hand to reshape Iraqi and Afghan societies in the face of resistance.
If the Americans had not at first expected resistance, they certainly discovered that they were facing it shortly after taking control of the major cities of each country. At that moment, they had to make a basic decision between pursuing the United States' own interests or defining the interest as transforming Afghan and Iraqi society. At the moment Washington chose transformation, it had launched into a task it could not fulfill -- or, if it could fulfill it, would be able to do so only with enormously more force than it placed in either country. When we consider that 300,000 Soviet troops could not subdue Afghanistan, we get a sense of how large a force would have been needed.
The point here is this: The means used by the United States to cripple al Qaeda also created a situation that was inherently dangerous to the United States. Unless the mission had been parsed precisely -- with the United States doing what it needed to do to disrupt al Qaeda but not overreaching itself -- the outcome would be what we see now. It is, of course, easy to say that the United States should have intervened, achieved its goals and left each country in chaos; it is harder to do. Nevertheless, the United States intervened, did not leave the countries and still has chaos. That can be said with hindsight. Acting so callously with foresight is more difficult.
There remains the question of whether the United States could have crippled al Qaeda without invading Iraq -- a move that still would have left Afghanistan in its current state, but which would seem to have been better than the situation now at hand. The answer to that question rests on two elements. First, it is simply not clear that the Saudis' appreciation of the situation, prior to March 2003, would have moved them to cooperate, and extensive diplomacy over the subject prior to the invasion had left the Americans reasonably convinced that the Saudis could do more. Advocates of diplomacy would have to answer the question of what more the United States could have done on that score. Now, perhaps, over time the United States could have developed its own intelligence sources within al Qaeda. But time was exactly what the United States did not have.
But most important, the U.S. leadership underestimated the consequences of an invasion. They set their goals as high as they did because they did not believe that the Iraqis would resist -- and when resistance began, they denied that it involved anything more than the ragtag remnants of the old regime. Their misreading of Iraq was compounded with an extraordinary difficulty in adjusting their thinking as reality unfolded.
But even without the administration's denial, we can see in hindsight that the current crisis was hardwired into the strategy. If the United States wanted to destroy al Qaeda, it had to do things that would suck it into the current situation -- unless it was enormously skilled and nimble, which it certainly was not. In the end, the primary objective -- defending the homeland -- was won at the cost of trying to achieve goals in Iraq and Afghanistan that cannot be achieved.
In the political debate that is raging today in the United States, our view is that both sides are quite wrong. The administration's argument for building democracy in Iraq and Afghanistan misses the point that the United States cannot be successful in this, because it lacks the force to carry out the mission. The administration's critics, who argue that Iraq particularly diverted attention from fighting al Qaeda, fail to appreciate the complex matrix of relationships the United States was trying to adjust with its invasion of Iraq.
The administration is incapable of admitting that it has overreached and led U.S. forces into an impossible position. Its critics fail to understand the intricate connections between the administration's various actions and the failure of al Qaeda to strike inside the United States for five years. "
"...In 1998, journalist John Miller's interview with bin Laden is broadcast, and O'Neill and others in Washington are alarmed by the al Qaeda leader's fatwa against the U.S. CIA field agent "Kirk" contacts bin Laden's primary opposition, General Massoud of Afghanistan's Northern Alliance, and they concoct a plan to capture bin Laden and bring him to the U.S. to face justice. The plan is never approved for action, but the simultaneous bombings of two U.S. embassies in Africa push the Administration to respond with an ineffective missile strike that some think merely elevates bin Laden's stature in the Muslim world. Arrests of al Qaeda operatives at the Canadian-U.S. border and in New York on the eve of the millennium provide further evidence that Muslim extremists are bringing their holy war to America. (...)
"In 2001, counterterrorism czar Richard Clarke's warnings about bin Laden are downplayed, as is an FBI agent's warning to his superiors that some suspicious individuals are learning to fly jet aircraft. (...)
" Shortly thereafter, the Northern Alliance's Massoud, who had pressed the U.S. for assistance against the 
Taliban and warned that bin Laden might strike, is assassinated by al Qaeda agents. Two days later comes September 11, and O'Neill dies bravely, along with thousands of others, in an attack by the enemy he had devoted his career to thwarting.(...) "
Ler e Ver AQUI
Se outro mérito não tivesse (e tem...), "The Path to 09.11" tem o imenso mérito de prestar uma mais que justa e merecida homenagem à inteligência e coragem do Comandante Ahmed Sha Massoud, o afegão que venceu os soviéticos e soube casar o islão e a liberdade.
09.11 "Tribute in lights"
Uma Homenagem Luminosa. Homenagem de New York às vítimas dos atentados de 11 de Setembro. Duas torres de luz violeta erguem-se ao infinito do céu, do local das torres gémeas do World Trade Center...
"Masters in Management" segundo o Finantial Times
PAIXÕES ESTÉREIS E AUSÊNCIAS FATAIS!
O Financial Times publica o seu ranking das escolas europeias de top management, "masters in management". De notar, a presença fortíssima de escolas francesas (sete nas primeiras dez!) e das inglesas, mas também a boa presença da Bélgica e dos escandinavos (estão lá os três), da Finlândia e da Irlanda, até da Espanha (meteu uma escola nas 35...) e, pasme-se, da Hungria e da Polónia... De Portugal é que não se vê rasto! A António Guterres e outros apaixonados pela educação (a tal que esbanja milhões e tem dos professores mais bem pagos da OCDE!), apetece perguntar - mas é isto a vida?! É este o resultado que a vossa paixão engendra?! Oh, tristes apaixonados que deixam estéril e inconsolado o objecto da vossa paixão...
Al-Qaeda contra Hezbollah...
SOBRE O TERRORISMO EM DAMASCO
O ataque à embaixada americana em Damasco, já prometido e anunciado pela as-Sahab, aqui , é enquadrado e comentado pela Stratfor:
" The attack was most likely carried out by an al Qaeda-linked cell in Lebanon. Al Qaeda has steadily increased its presence in the Levant in the past several months. Syrian security forces have engaged in shootouts with alleged jihadists in the capital city since the Feb. 14 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik al Hairi. Though these shootouts were largely political in nature, designed to facilitate a dialogue between Washington and Damascus, jihadists have a real incentive to stage attacks in the Levant and target the regime that has offered cooperation to U.S. forces in Iraq against al Qaeda. In the wake of the Lebanon war, a strong need arose in al Qaeda to challenge it's Shiite rival, Hezbollah, for regional fame. "
Jornais Porrtugueses
DOIS CASOS DE OLHAR CERTEIRO
Por serem tão pouco habituais e tão raros, descobrimos que casos de olhar certeiro, nos jornais portugueses, acabam por ser notícia... Aqui vão dois, da Visão e do Diário de Notícias.
UM ECO DA AMEAÇA PASSADA...
E A AMEAÇA PRESENTE !
Mensageiro de Lug... Nada no horizonte o assusta !
as-Sahab, o dispositivo mediático da Al-Qaïda em acção
MANIPULAR AS PERCEPÇÕES OCIDENTAIS
Ayman al-Zawahiri, número dois de Bin Laden, faz um aproveitamento maquiavélico das emoções do 5º aniversário do 11.09, para manipular as aopiniões públicas ocidentais, reforçar o medo e procurar fragilizá-las, através de mais uma produção do seu dispositivo mediático, a as-Sahab.
Segundo a AFP, o fanático barbudo ameaça o Ocidente: "Vous devriez plutôt renforcer vos défenses dans deux régions", poursuit Zawahiri dans ce message, dont un bref extrait a d'abord été diffusé par la chaîne CNN.
"La première est le Golfe, d'où vous serez expulsés. Et la deuxième est Israël, parce que les renforts jihadistes s'en rapprochent (...) et votre défaite y mettra fin à la suprématie actuelle des sionistes et des Croisés".
Des extraits ont été publiés sur le site internet du "SITE Institute", un centre américain de recherche sur le terrorisme selon lequel, ce nouveau message, intitulé "Questions brûlantes", est une "interview" de Zawahiri de plus de 76 minutes réalisée par as-Sahab, la branche médiatique d'Al-Qaïda. "
A guerra pelo domínio das opiniões públicas ocidentais, a guerra pela construção e gestão das percepções sobe cada vez mais de intensidade... E irá subir ainda muito.
Marketing & Marcas
Portugal para ser, tem de querer
O Henrique Agostinho continua com pontualidade e regularidade suíças a publicar a sua enciclopédia sobre a "marca Portugal"...
" Portugal vende pouco, o dinheiro que entra é insuficiente, os gastos são elevados, as empresas não se sustentam e os centros de decisão emigram. Resultado: é a crise!
Henrique Agostinho
O crescente deficit da balança comercial (para os economistas, o mais correcto será dizer, da balança de transacções e capital) é a causa para muitas das dificuldades que a economia portuguesa atravessa. Portugal vende pouco, o dinheiro que entra é insuficiente, os gastos são elevados, as empresas não se sustentam, os centros de decisão emigram, levam junto os empregos bem pagos, ficam sem lugar os trabalhadores preparados, o estado perde forma de cobrar os impostos elevados e, no fim, não sobra dinheiro nas finanças públicas para sustentar os serviços, nem para pagar as prestações sociais. Em resumo: É a crise, a orçamental e a social.
Percebe-se assim, por este encadeado de tristes circunstâncias, da importância que tem a qualificação das exportações, pois que esta fará entrar receita, quebrando o ciclo vicioso em que a economia do País está enterrada. Mas, o que quererá dizer isso de qualificar as exportações? O que significa, em termos práticos, exportar bem? E já agora, quanto é que é bom (...) " Continuar a ler AQUI
MEDITAÇÃO AO ESPELHO...
Do fotógrafo russo, ALEKSANDR SHAKHABALOV a descobrir Aqui e
também autor desta
METÁFORA DA RÚSSIA
DO MUNDO HOJE...
Fotos pela AFP,
Afflux d'immigrants aux Canaries
LOS CRISTIANOS (AFP), 2006-09-10 18:15:22 - Une embarcation en provenance de Gambie transportant une centaine d'immigrants vient d'arriver sur le port de Puerto de los Cristianos à Tenerife.
Fête nationale
GIBRALTAR (AFP), 2006-09-10 18:55:25 - La population célèbre la fête nationale qui marque l'anniversaire du referendum de 1967 où seulement 44 personnes avaient voté le rattachement à l'Espagne.
Vue de Ground Zero, Lower Manahattan, à New York le 8 septembre 2006
2006-09-10 14:53:36 - Les Etats-Unis commémorent lundi les attentats du 11 Septembre 2001, les plus meurtriers de l'Histoire, un anniversaire célébré alors qu'ils sont, cinq ans plus tard, embourbés dans la guerre en Irak et toujours nargués par ben Laden.
Sur la plage
DEAUVILLE (AFP), 2006-09-10 19:53:00 - Les derniers vacanciers de la saison estivale profitent dimanche d'un temps très ensoleillé sur la plage de Deauville.
INTELIGÊNCIA ECONÓMICA, CRISE LIBANESA E "HOMELAND SECURITY"
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Panorama de l'IE en Europe et aux Etats-Unis |
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DOSSIER SPECIAL
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Liban et Palestine : l'histoire secrète d'une crise
Depuis l'arrivée au pouvoir du président Mahmoud Ahmadinejad en août 2005, l'Iran, avec l'appui de la Syrie, se prépare à jouer activement la carte du Hezbollah au Liban et du Hamas en Palestine. Depuis plusieurs mois, Intelligence Online suit de près ces préparatifs : réunions secrètes, livraisons d'armes, financements, etc. La crise actuelle était prévisible, au fur et à mesure que se durcissait le conflit avec les Occidentaux sur le dossier nucléaire. Retour sur nos principaux articles...
DOSSIER SPECIAL
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Homeland Security |
Les enjeux de la sécurité intérieure
Au sommaire de ce dossier : les groupes de défense, les cabinets de lobbying, l'identification biométrique, les projets de recherche, les fonds d'investissement, les mutations du secteur... Sans oublier la question du partage des informations dans la lutte contre le terrorisme et la surveillance des frontières. Lire le dossier NGA : les "yeux" du renseignement américain Des informations inédites pour décrypter le programme de la National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), ses enjeux politiques et industriels, ses innovations technologiques, ses axes de recherche, sa collaboration avec le FBI, ses réponses pour coordonner le renseignement géospatial, etc. Lire le dossier NSA : les grandes "oreilles" de Washington Nouvelles technologies d'interception, programmes de recherche, enjeux industriels, définition de standards, exigences en matière d'interopérabilité, légalité des écoutes après le 11-Septembre, nominations et parcours des experts : voici les principaux thèmes développés dans ce dossier consacré à la NSA. Lire le dossier
L'échec militaire des Israéliens face au Hezbollah , ces dernières semaines au Sud-Liban, est avant tout un échec de ses services de renseignement ; c'est aussi la victoire d'une guérilla défensive organisée sur le modèle nord-coréen. [...]
DO RUI E DO LUAR
" Amanhã…
… sabe-se lá se haverá lua cheia para excitar as nossas superstições e bivalves ( conquilhas, sobretudo) de concha aberta à espera de serem comidos. Ele há Luas… " E... LUAR !
perceptions management
DAS PERCEPÇÕES E DA SUA GESTÃO
Ninguém contestará, como aqui se explica, que as percepções são frequentemente mais fortes que a realidade. S